Selling winners too early has been a persistent problem for me.
No matter how much I tell myself that I am going to learn and let them run - I still begin trimming my winners way too early.
Letting winners run is the most common shared trait amongst great investors.
Kaizen.
If you manage other peoples money you better be just as picky about your investors as you are your investments. One bad investor will make your life miserable.
As a stock picker I've always been amazed at how quickly the pendulum of confidence swings from feeling like you know exactly what you are doing to feeling like you have no idea what you are doing. It is such a fascinating mental and emotional exercise. I love it.
“Take your losses quickly and your profits slowly because your objective is not just to be right but to make big money when you are right”
– Bill O’Neil
If you accept that no one can time the next recession/bear market you realize that absorbing manageable damage is more realistic than avoiding risk. Way easier, less work.
Working hard is good. Working smart is good. Working hard AND smart is magic. Smart people aren’t born smart. Learning makes you smart. Never stop learning.
I have often seen less believable people (students) insist that the more believable people (teachers) understand their thinking and prove why the teacher is wrong before listening to what the teacher (the more believable party) has to say. That’s backward.
An idea meritocracy—a system that brings together smart, independent thinkers and has them productively dis-agree to come up with the best possible collective thinking & resolve their disagreements in a believability-weighted way—will outperform any other decision-making system.