Fin_zealous

Passionate student of history and finance. Voracious Reader. My tweets are a window into my though process

[Fin_zealous @FinZealous]

📚 My Ultimate Reading List 📚 Follow this thread for all my book reviews and recommendations. Each tweet includes a brief review and an Amazon affiliate link!

[Fin_zealous @FinZealous]

Complex adaptive systems, because they are nonlinear, cannot be studied with traditional linear methods. Emergent properties of these systems all but disappear when they are simplified or reduced into individual parts, which also alleviates reductionist methods of study.

Complex adaptive systems must be studied at the level of description that preserves the whole system.
#complexity #systemthinking

[Fin_zealous @FinZealous]

TSMC Nowcast – March 12, 2026
Strict out-of-sample assessment using only public data available by this date. Focus: investability & excess return potential vs. historical U.S. stocks since 1900.Prev close (Mar 11): ~$354.56 (up +2.15% that day).
Key drivers: AI boom fueling ~30% revenue growth forecast for 2026, strong Jan-Feb sales (+30% YoY), recent earnings beats, 3nm/2nm leadership, and analyst upgrades (e.g., high PTs amid AI supercycle).Decision: Buy
Primary 6-month attractiveness: +3.5/5 (solid long edge historically).Attractiveness (-5 to +5):
1m: +4.0
3m: +4.0
6m: +3.5
1y: +3.0
Price targets (closing):
1m: ~$375

3m: ~$400
6m: ~$420
1y: ~$450

EPS outlook strong (rising sharply over 5 years). Next earnings likely to beat (+3.0/5).
Sentiment very bullish (+4.0/5) with strong consensus (+4.0/5 divergence low). Russell 1000 benchmark much weaker (~+1.5 to +2.0 across horizons) → TSM stands out.Core take: Near-term AI momentum is powerful, but geopolitics/tariffs & high valuation cap longer-term scores. Overall confidence: 4/5 (data solid, but macro risks exist).Position accordingly—AI tailwinds still dominant. #TSMC #AI #Semis #Nowcast

[Fin_zealous @FinZealous]

NVDA nowcast as of March 12, 2026 (pre-market): Strong Buy signal. Q4 FY26 revenue $68B (+73% YoY), Q1 guidance $78B. Forecasting 6m close ~$250 amid AI momentum + GTC catalyst (Mar 16-19). High confidence (overall 4/5) despite valuation risks. Leading the AI wave! #NVDA #AI #Investing

[Fin_zealous @FinZealous]

Remove the dumb risks: bad incentives, unchecked assumptions, single-point dependencies. Reduce error, then add ambition.

[Fin_zealous @FinZealous]

Stop chasing brilliance. Start by inverting the problem. What’s the easiest way this fails?
Invert first, avoid stupidity, then pursue excellence. Where do you start?

[Fin_zealous @FinZealous]

Talent hits a target no one else can hit. Genius hit a target no one else can see. #zerotoone #avoidcompetition

[Fin_zealous @FinZealous]

What important truth do very few people agree with you on? Cit Peter Thiel

[Fin_zealous @FinZealous]

Looming pitfalls demand bold adaptation—overcapacity, inequality. China adapts: from GDP chase to common prosperity. Urgent shift in a networked world. What's the West missing?

[Fin_zealous @FinZealous]

China's playbook flips Western scripts—state isn't a drag, it's the engine. Deng: black cat, white cat, as long as it catches mice. Paternalism meets decentralization for explosive growth."

[Fin_zealous @FinZealous]

Households save massively (30% vs US 3%), savings like fortresses fueling empires. Confucian values: frugality, meritocracy, community over self. Mayor economy: locals build clusters, ascend ladders.

[Fin_zealous @FinZealous]

Audit your moats: money, assets, partners vs trained operators and teams. Strength—not slogans—carries you through shocks. Which ‘soldier’ (capability, habit, team) matters most in your world?

[Fin_zealous @FinZealous]

“Allies vanish when risk arrives. Burnham’s Machiavellians channel Machiavelli: people pledge blood, estates, children—until danger is near. Real power plans for the flinch. Judge leaders by who stands when costs hit. Where have you seen loyalty tested? #Machiavelli”

[Fin_zealous @FinZealous]

The ruled are yours while risk is distant; when costs bite, many flinch. Plan for the flinch—real incentives, redundancy, skin-in-the-game. Loyalty ends when danger begins

[Fin_zealous @FinZealous]

Foxes or Lions run your state today?”

[Fin_zealous @FinZealous]

Pareto’s Machiavellians: Foxes use cunning and deals; Lions rely on force and loyalty. Elites always rule; freedom lives only when organized oppositions bite back. “Only power restrains power.” —James Burnham, The Machiavellians”

[Fin_zealous @FinZealous]

Balance beats purity: brains in the elite; backbone in the masses; open circulation between them. When one force swallows courts, press, parties—liberty collapses. Which check is weakest where you are? #politicaltheory”

[Fin_zealous @FinZealous]

Book: James Burnham, The Machiavellians

[Fin_zealous @FinZealous]

Democracy isn’t rule by ‘the people’—it’s rule checked by rivals.” Democracy without opposition is just power in costume. “Only power restrains power.”Measure freedom by how hard rivals can bite the rulers—publicly. What’s the missing check today? #politicaltheory ”