FirstDownLabs | Game Predictions

NFL game predictions model using historical game data. Sometimes right, sometimes wrong, always data-driven. For entertainment only.
2025: 94-67
2026: 0-0

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Player Projections (beta)

49ers
Purdy: 224 pass yds, 1.5 pass TD
McCaffrey: 67 rush yds, 4.4 rec / 35 yds
Kittle: 4.5 rec / 51 yds
Evans: 4.1 rec / 57 yds

Rams
Stafford: 270 pass yds, 2.1 pass TD
Nacua: 7.3 rec / 89 yds
K. Williams: 64 rush yds, 2.3 rec / 20 yds
Adams: 3.8 rec / 56 yds

#FantasyFootball

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49ers vs Rams · Melbourne

Pick: Rams (59%)
Proj: 27-25

#SFvsLAR · v1.0

Caveat: v1.0 treats this as a Rams home game. It isn't. Edge is overstated, real number is closer to 54%.

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Patriots at Seahawks

What the model had:
SEA (61% win prob), 25-21
Final: SEA 13-10

#NEvsSEA · v1.0

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🏈 Welcome to the 2026-27 season!

FirstDownLabs' model v1.0 has been rebuilt and retrained for the season, live starting this week.

What changed:
- 8 seasons of data now, not 3.
- Injuries weighted by position group and the snaps a player actually plays.
- No Vegas line in the training data, ever. It works everything out on its own, across over 130 inputs.
- Player predictions are in now too, still early. Treat these as directional for now.

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Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers

Pick: BAL
Confidence: 76%
Projected: 16–8

Context: v0; data-driven; no injuries/news.
#BALvsPIT

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New York Jets at Buffalo Bills

Pick: NYJ
Confidence: 57%
Projected Total: 42

Context: v0; data-driven; no injuries/news.
#NYJvsBUF

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Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos

Pick: LAC
Confidence: 54%

Context: v0; data-driven; no injuries/news.
#LACvsDEN

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Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears

Pick: CHI
Confidence: 78%
Projected: 22–17

Context: v0; data-driven; no injuries/news.
#DETvsCHI

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Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots

Pick: MIA
Confidence: 50%
Projected Total: 37

Context: v0; data-driven; no injuries/news.
#MIAvsNE

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Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles

Pick: PHI
Confidence: 77%
Projected: 5–2

Context: v0; data-driven; no injuries/news.
#WASvsPHI

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Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders

Pick: LV
Confidence: 59%
Projected Total: 24

Context: v0; data-driven; no injuries/news.
#KCvsLV

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Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams

Pick: LA
Confidence: 62%
Projected Total: 46

Context: v0; data-driven; no injuries/news.
#ARIvsLA

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Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants

Pick: DAL
Confidence: 60%
Projected Total: 39

Context: v0; data-driven; no injuries/news.
#DALvsNYG

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Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars

Pick: JAX
Confidence: 60%
Projected: 37–5

Context: v0; data-driven; no injuries/news.
#TENvsJAX

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Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings

Pick: GB
Confidence: 64%

Context: v0; data-driven; no injuries/news.
#GBvsMIN

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New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons

Pick: ATL
Confidence: 66%
Projected Total: 37

Context: v0; data-driven; no injuries/news.
#NOvsATL

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Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals

Pick: CIN
Confidence: 58%
Projected: 22–19

Context: v0; data-driven; no injuries/news.
#CLEvsCIN

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Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans

Pick: IND
Confidence: 58%

Context: v0; data-driven; no injuries/news.
#INDvsHOU

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Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers

Pick: SEA
Confidence: 66%
Projected: 24–16

Context: v0; data-driven; no injuries/news.
#SEAvsSF

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Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Pick: TB
Confidence: 82%
Projected: 27–19

Context: v0; data-driven; no injuries/news.
#CARvsTB