Everything else will fade next to Tesla’s Optimus, chipmaking at Terafab, AI satellites, and the space economy.
Even robotaxis will be a small slice of Tesla + SpaceX revenue.
Once the business model is laid, fast developing and trending toward infinity, the tokenized stock will enter full “crypto” mode: higher temporary volatility, detached from classic fundamentals, and traded on scarcity and supply and demand.
WHEN ?
If politics and chaos-seeking forces don’t wreck it, slowly from around 19 January 2028 (merger most likely announced in 2027).
Once robots are made in the millions, chips leave the Terafactory, Starship launches daily to deploy tens of thousands of low-cost AI satellites, and a Moon base is under construction, the curve will steepen.
Between 2034 and 2042, SI is estimated to become sentient—the real, unpredictable turning point for humanity.
We become slaves of the machine (if needed), merge with it as immortal cyborgs, or flourish in abundance—though borders turn strict enough to kill on the spot in the “buffer” zone, like North Korea, but to block illegal entry rather than escape.
The US, China, and a few loyal allies become extraordinary places to live or visit; most others lag far longer, until they find internal stability.
Those who held the $TSLA and the $SPCX will be like owners of tens of acres in Manhattan if they had hold it through the last 400 years… but it will happen in 20X faster.
(I’ll be elder by then).
SpaceX! What a day!!!!
SpaceX Launched 3 Rockets to orbit on this day. This is a record for ANY country, let alone a single company!
SpaceX launched 1 Falcon 9 from California, 1 Falcon 9 from Florida, and a Falcon Heavy from Florida.
130 Satellites launched in California.
4 Astronauts launched from Florida and safely delivered to the ISS in 8 hours flat by a Falcon 9 and Crew Dragon
A secret cargo for the NROL by Falcon Heavy...and a 14th flight for Falcon Heavy with a perfect record of success
Four boosters returned to earth
All of this IN ONE DAY.
🔥 Tesla is hiring AI Safety Operators and Vehicle Operators in 55 cities around the world.
Robotaxi incoming!
🇺🇸 US (36):
AZ: Phoenix
CA: Marina Del Rey, Palo Alto, San Diego, South San Francisco, Sunnyvale
CO: Aurora, Littleton
DC: Washington
FL: Doral, Jacksonville, Orlando
GA: Atlanta
IL: Chicago
KS: Lenexa
LA: New Orleans
MA: Norwell, Peabody
MD: Owings Mills
MI: Southfield
MN: Eden Prairie
MO: St. Louis
NC: Charlotte
NJ: Englewood
NV: Reno
NY: Buffalo, Flushing
PA: Devon, Wexford
TN: Bartlett, Nashville
TX: Austin, Dallas, Houston, San Antonio
WA: Bellevue
🌍 Europe (4):
🇬🇧 London
🇮🇪 Dublin
🇨🇿 Prague
🇵🇱 Warsaw
🌏 Asia-Pacific (8):
🇦🇺 Brisbane, Melbourne
🇳🇿 Auckland
🇭🇰 Hong Kong
🇸🇬 Singapore
🇹🇼 Taipei
🇰🇷 Seongnam, Busan
🌍 Middle East & India (4):
🇮🇱 Tel Aviv, Petah Tikva
🇶🇦 Doha
🇮🇳 Mumbai
🌎 Latin America (3):
🇨🇴 El Poblado, Colombia
🇦🇷 Munro, Argentina
🇺🇾 Villa Argentina, Uruguay
Henry Malukas, co-founder of HMD Trucking, which operates a fleet of ~700 diesel semi trucks, says the company has ordered 50 @Tesla Semi trucks.
"It’s an amazing product. It’s efficient, low maintenance, also the fuel cost. It's unbelievable. And for the driver, I think it’s a dream come true. Yeah, it’s like nothing we’ve ever seen, and I don’t think anybody is going to see for a while, anything like that. It’s just going to be next level,” said Malukas.
"It works for a long haul; any kind of trucking, for any kind of use; it’s going to be electric. I think for the [electric] cars, when they came out, people had a preference; they had their emotional attachments. Here, when this rolls out to businesses, when they understand what it does, and the costs and all that stuff, that will take off in the market because there are no emotions. The owners of the company look at the bottom line, and we’re going to excel at the next level. I mean, this is a miracle in my eyes.
I test drove the thing, and it’s a dream. This is a game changer that’s coming, 100 percent. And I hope everybody else will catch up to give Tesla some competition. But right now, everybody is far behind,” said Malukas. https://t.co/j7z8MtCg5P
Starship is no longer just a test vehicle.
It Is Now An Orbital Cargo System.
Flight 14 reached orbit for the first time, deployed 26 operational Starlink V3 satellites, and established contact with the entire stack.
And it did it after losing an engine.
That may be the bigger engineering story.
SpaceX compensated with the remaining engines, continued into orbit, delivered the payload, shortened the mission, executed Starship’s first deorbit burn and brought the vehicle through a targeted Pacific splashdown.
The architecture is beginning to show itself:
• Engine-out capability
• Orbital insertion
• Operational payload deployment
• On-orbit contingency decisions
• Controlled deorbit
• Atmospheric return
Starship did not prove full reuse today.
It proved something that comes first:
It can lose hardware and still complete the mission.
Now Starlink V3 becomes the forcing function.
Every successful deployment gives SpaceX a reason to fly Starship again.
And again.
And again.
I dramatically underestimated the value of Grok Bot in my Tesla.
Can you technically do everything you’re able to do with Grok Bot in the Tesla just by launching the app on your phone and going voice mode? Sure.
But the magic isn’t in the raw capability itself, it’s in the combination of raw capability and total seamlessness.
I often have fleeting thoughts while driving around. Some of these things aren’t significant enough to make me fumble around with my phone while supervising FSD, but when I literally don’t have to lift a finger and can just “Hey Grok” anything computer related into reality, I find myself taking advantage daily. And the little things add up.
I’m on my way to work and remembered that I have a few documents on my home computer that I am going to need for work. So I just asked “Hey Grok, can you grab those 4 pdf files from my Mac downloads folder and move them into X folder on my one drive?” Now they’ll be where I need them to be when I get to my desk, and I won’t have to re-download them on my work machine.
I have to work on a presentation today for a talk in a few weeks. “Hey grok, go into my sales enablement folder and have Claude Code build me a deck focused on X product for Y industry.” Claude already has my full job context, styling preferences etc and can build a nearly finished deck with a prompt. Now when I get to my desk, instead of building from scratch, I can review and prompt revisions before beginning to dig through my email backlog.
Feels insane.
SpaceX's Starship rocket has successfully reached orbit and deployed its V3 Starlink satellites into orbit for the first time, officially making this Starship's first revenue-generating flight, a major milestone for the company!
Congrats @SpaceX team! Incredible achievement 🚀
From concept to reality.
@SpaceX has successfully deployed Starlink V3 satellites into Earth’s orbit and made contact with them for the first time.
At scale, one Starship carries 60 V3 satellites, the same network capacity as about 20 Falcon 9 launches.
Nothing has given me more joy and adventure in the last year than owning @cybertruck
FSD + Starlink + offroad capability + incredible comfort in a tough stainless cocoon.
No other vehicle makes it so easy, no matter if you’re just commuting, road tripping across states or offroading in the beautiful backcountry.
Cybertruck makes it so you look forward to long journeys on the road instead of dreading them.
Hoping to tackle the rest of the country over time :)
Happy 1 year anniversary, chihiro <3
I had something come up and I have to travel two states away. The price of a plane ticket was $1,000 per traveler and I would need two, one for me and one for my daughter. Total: $2000. We wouldn’t get there till around 11 o’clock tonight.
The price of FSD is $100. I can bring my own snacks, not get frisked by TSA, run through the airport with a 5 year old and I don’t have to rent a car when I get there or have family pick me up. Will be there by 8 and I will get to spend quality time with my daughter, I have fun games we can safely play while I’m driving.
Tesla is the future.
I've been chewing on a question lately. Has any single business leader ever put this much capital to work at once? I ran the numbers on the companies Elon leads, and the answer is pretty remarkable.
This year SpaceX, which now includes xAI and X, is on pace to spend about $65 billion on capital projects, and Tesla has guided to more than $25 billion. That's roughly $90 billion in one year. On top of that sit the announced megaprojects. Starbase Louisiana is up to $100 billion, and Terafab in Grimes County is up to $119 billion across all phases. There's a $10 billion solar cell plant planned for Fort Bend County, a $20 billion-plus xAI data center in Southaven, and a growing cluster of factories in Bastrop. Hold today's pace flat and you get about $450 billion through 2030. Add the big projects and it's closer to $680 billion. If JPMorgan is right that SpaceX alone heads toward $200 billion a year, the total approaches a trillion.
To get a sense of scale I compared it to the size of the economy. The Musk companies are now investing about 0.28% of US GDP every year. Apollo averaged about 0.21% over its life, and so did the Manhattan Project. Those were run by the federal government. This is a handful of companies steered by one man.
And the money on his own books is only the first ring. People who learned their trade at SpaceX and Tesla have gone on to build companies of their own.
Tom Mueller founded Impulse Space, Will Bruey co-founded Varda, the Kunjur brothers started K2 Space, and JB Straubel built Redwood Materials.
Beyond them is a wider ring of competitors that exist because SpaceX and Tesla proved these things could be done. That includes every rocket company now chasing reusability, China's answers to Starlink, the global EV industry, and a whole field racing to build humanoid robots. Put all of that together and I think Elon has become something close to a one-man re-industrialization of America.
In fairness, Alphabet and Meta spend more in raw dollars, and Alphabet may still outspend everyone through 2030. What sets Elon apart is the range: rockets, launch sites, satellites, AI compute, chip fabs, solar, cars and robots, all at the same time, and much of it hardware nobody has ever built at this scale. I can't find anyone in history who has put so many $100 billion-scale physical projects in motion at once.
Not investment advice. It's just a fascinating moment to be watching.
SpaceX and Tesla will win because they will own the most compute
xAI will beat Anthropic and OpenAI because they will acquire the most compute
Tesla Optimus will win because they will have more compute than Figure and Chinese competitors
Cybercab and Robotaxis will win because they will have more compute than Waymo and other competitors
And in the long-run, SpaceX and Tesla will win because they will own the chips via Terrafab, the connectivity via Starlink and the access to Space via Starship
There are not many moats left in enterprises, but SpaceX and Tesla continue to own the biggest ones because they focus on doing the hardest things
This is why Spacex and Tesla (likely merged at some point) will become a $100T company in the years (decades) to come
@elonmusk is thinking in decades, not months like most other companies
TESLA/SPACEX
“Morgan Stanley believes that doubling in the medium to short term is just the starting point, with long-term potential for 10–100x revaluation.”
Take the time to read this attached summary of Morgan Stanley’s recent report. Or the report itself. A few points:
♦️Foundation AI models are distinct from Physical AI. This upside comes from physical world integration of AI.
♦️Physical AI is things like RoboTaxis and robots
♦️No other company can match a combined Tesla/SpaceX ability to scale Physical AI. The synergies are apparent.
Read more 👇 Well done Morgan Stanley.
Grok Bot just released for Tesla and I'm blown away
I was lucky enough to have early access. Having your car drive you around while you talk to an army of agents is incredible
In this video I take you for a ride in my Cybertruck and show you just how awesome this new release is