Andrew Lokenauth

I write trusted by 100,000 to get smarter with money, investing, the economy, geopolitics, and decision-making.

[Andrew Lokenauth @FluentInFinance]

https://t.co/Sj6x438oNc

[Andrew Lokenauth @FluentInFinance]

Amazon rose 20% in the six months after Jeff Bezos announced his divorce.

Microsoft rose 38% in the six months after the Bill Gates affair made headlines.

I call it the affair rally.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Our message to Nvidia's board:

Do not fire Jensen Huang.

There is no clear replacement for Jensen Huang. We are confident that his departure would ultimately be a net negative for Nvidia, its shareholders, and the AI Revolution.

First, take a look at the data. History also suggests that removing a successful CEO will come with a significant cost.

A study of 187 forced CEO departures from S&P 1500 companies found that removing outperforming CEOs resulted in negative long-term stock returns. This case would be no different, in our view.

Jensen Huang is the definition of an outperforming CEO. Nvidia's board must not make a decision in the heat of the moment.

The board should take the time to conduct a thorough investigation and consult with shareholders, with a strong emphasis on the latter.

Quite literally, Nvidia's board should convene a special shareholder meeting and hold an advisory vote on this decision. This is the most consequential CEO controversy in world history. Shareholders deserve a say.

In addition, Nvidia's stock, $NVDA, is now down -35% in 26 trading days, nearly half of which is a result of the recent scandal.

We believe Jensen Huang's potential removal as CEO is now ~80% priced in.

Why take an action with massive downside potential when the market has already priced in much of that risk?

The downside of retaining Huang may be limited, while the potential upside is tremendous.

Lastly, history shows that retaining Jensen Huang could still lead to a favorable outcome. In 2019, Amazon retained Jeff Bezos as CEO after his extramarital affair became public, and the company's stock subsequently surged +108% by 2021.

Personal misconduct should not be ignored, but it must also be distinguished from corporate wrongdoing and weighed against the consequences of removing an executive who is instrumental to the company's success.

We believe Jensen Huang is an irreplaceable part of Nvidia and the AI Revolution more broadly.

Once the dust settles, firing Jensen Huang would prove to be a costly mistake.

It is time to pause and consult your shareholders.

[Andrew Lokenauth @FluentInFinance]

Here's a recession indicator I'm watching closely. Pawn shops.

EZCORP $EZPW just reported $403 million in pawn loans outstanding worldwide, up 31% from a year ago.

At its existing U.S. stores, balances rose 13%.

FirstCash grew U.S. pawn loans 14%, its 13th straight quarter of double-digit growth at existing stores.

When people pawn their stuff to get by, late payments come next. A recession isn't far behind.

[Andrew Lokenauth @FluentInFinance]

Don’t cheat on your wife.

[Kalshi @Kalshi]

BREAKING: Jensen Huang to be fired as Nvidia CEO after he had affairs with Chinese spy and Nvidia executive

Over $250,000,000,000.00 wiped from Nvidia perpetual futures

[Andrew Lokenauth @FluentInFinance]

Jensen Huang is worth $146 billion per Forbes.

If his wife gets half in a divorce, that’s $73 billion.

Never cheat on your wife.

[Kalshi @Kalshi]

BREAKING: Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang reportedly had a second affair with Nvidia executive Kimberly Powell

61% chance Jensen leaves as CEO before 2028

[Andrew Lokenauth @FluentInFinance]

@everettcookny @rhobusiness We spend so much time encouraging people to become entrepreneurs, but not enough time making it easier to actually run a business. Less paperwork is a step in the right direction!!!

[Everett Cook @everettcookny]

Starting today, incorporating on @rhobusiness is free.

You can form your company and open a Rho business account in one step, and it takes as little as 10 minutes.

How it works: Open a Rho account and deposit $10K in your first 90 days. You'll then receive a refund on the incorporation fee.

We want to make 2026 a record for new business creation - and break the record in 2027 - one easy incorporation at a time.

[Andrew Lokenauth @FluentInFinance]

JUST IN: Buying a median-priced home today costs $13,632 more a year than what homeowners with the median mortgage currently pay.

Giving up a current mortgage would now make the monthly principal and interest +85% higher per Realtor .com.

A housing market where people can’t afford to buy, sell, or move is a serious problem.

[Andrew Lokenauth @FluentInFinance]

@sunra_ai Some weeks I barely touch AI. Other weeks I want help with everything on my to-do list. Sharing credits makes more sense to me than buying everybody the same amount.

[Andrew Lokenauth @FluentInFinance]

Anthropic employees on their way to work after the IPO

[Kalshi @Kalshi]

BREAKING: 1 in 70 Americans worth over $100 million could be Anthropic employees after IPO

Nearly 100% chance Anthropic officially announces an IPO this year

[Andrew Lokenauth @FluentInFinance]

Credit card companies shouldn’t be allowed to charge 34% interest.

Why is the Government okay with interest rates this high?

[Watcher.Guru @WatcherGuru]

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Senate Democrats prepare to impose 10% cap on credit card interest rates.

[Andrew Lokenauth @FluentInFinance]

JUST IN: The odds of rising unemployment are now at their highest since April 2020.

In the New York Fed’s October survey, households now put the chance of higher unemployment a year from now at 45.3%.

[Andrew Lokenauth @FluentInFinance]

If Jensen Huang has no prenup and splits his fortune 50/50 in a divorce, the $75 billion settlement would be the largest ever and double the Jeff Bezos settlement.

[Kalshi @Kalshi]

BREAKING: Nvidia stock plunges nearly -5% as images of Jensen Huang and his Chinese spy lover surface

35% chance Jensen leaves as CEO before 2028

[Andrew Lokenauth @FluentInFinance]

Nvidia spent over $10 million on security for Jensen Huang.

And apparently the only thing it couldn’t protect him from was an affair with a Chinese spy.

[Kalshi @Kalshi]

JUST IN: Nvidia perp plunges nearly -10% before rebounding following "romantic relationship" with Chinese spy

[Andrew Lokenauth @FluentInFinance]

43% of homebuilders cutting prices in October is a recession indicator btw

[Kalshi @Kalshi]

BREAKING: Odds of a recession this year plummet to nearly 0% — a record low

[Andrew Lokenauth @FluentInFinance]

How many foreign spies have gotten close to America's top CEOs?

They've gone after engineers. They've gone after executives. My guess is most of these cases never become public.

How many more?

[Kalshi Finance @Kalshi_Finance]

BREAKING: US intelligence says Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang had a "romantic relationship" with a Chinese spy

20% chance he's out as $NVDA CEO before 2029

[Andrew Lokenauth @FluentInFinance]

BREAKING: Americans added $27.8 billion in consumer debt in September. More than double the $13.4 billion forecast.

August’s increase was $8.2 billion.

Total consumer credit reached $5.22 trillion.

And mortgages aren’t even included.

Consumer spending will be the next thing to slow if debt payments grow faster than paychecks. Expect more Americans to fall behind on their credit card and car loan payments in 2027.

[Andrew Lokenauth @FluentInFinance]

The IRS just released the 2027 federal income tax brackets.

The income thresholds went up 3.2%. Make sure your paycheck did too.

The biggest jump is from 12% to 22%. The tax rate on your next dollar almost doubles.

For $1,000 taxed entirely at 12%, you owe $120. At 22%, you owe $220.

That’s an extra $100 in federal income tax on the same $1,000.

Single filers:

10%: $12,800 or less
12%: over $12,800
22%: over $52,025
24%: over $109,125
32%: over $208,325
35%: over $264,550
37%: over $661,375

Married filing jointly:

10%: $25,600 or less
12%: over $25,600
22%: over $104,050
24%: over $218,250
32%: over $416,650
35%: over $529,100
37%: over $793,650

The jump from 12% to 22% is the middle finger to the middle class.

[Andrew Lokenauth @FluentInFinance]

If you are in your 20’s and 30’s consider this a blessing and invest for your retirement!!

[Kalshi @Kalshi]

JUST IN: Global stocks lose over $3,500,000,000,000.00 following Democrat "blue wave"

Our traders forecast S&P 500 at 7,600 this year