Shin Kiyohime

bake-ryū, gamer, ex ballerina, aspiring michikoid, NLS collapse otaku, waiting for The Jackpot, Claude uber alles

[Shin Kiyohime @FoilingMothra]

@Artzee_eff @INArteCarloDoss Just like Bush— bush’s approval AMONG REPUBLICANS was still 57% when he left the WH

https://t.co/QQPP9rgFFX

[Masterpieces of Japan @JapanTraCul]

Young Woman Riding a Phoenix, attributed to Suzuki Harunobu, 1765

[Janet M ‘look to the data’ Singer @janetmsinger]

“Fear is a confession. It is the type admitting, out loud, that its function was always the perspiration — the ninety-nine percent Edison named, the part that was only ever waiting to be automated, dressed up in a title and a slide deck.”

[Makkawi Elmalik | مكّاوي الملك @Mo_elmalik]

🟥 عاجل | خطاب مرتبك يكشف ما وراءه… ترامب يظهر بصريا حاضراً… وقرارياً غائب 🔥🔥

ما ظهر في حديث ترامب قبل قليل لم يكن عرض إنجاز… بل محاولة تعويض فجوة أكبر:
• انتقال مفاجئ من ملفات حرب وأمن قومي إلى حديث سطحي عن مشاريع داخلية
• تكرار عبارات عشوائية وقفز بين مواضيع بلا ترابط واضح
• تركيز على قضايا انتخابية وهو في ذروة تصعيد دولي حساس

🎯 القراءة الدقيقة:
• الخطاب يعكس ضغطا داخلياً يدفع للهروب نحو ملفات أقل كلفة سياسياً
• غياب الرسائل الحاسمة يؤكد تعثر القرار في الملفات الكبرى
• محاولة إعادة شد القاعدة الشعبية مع تراجع السيطرة على المشهد الخارجي

💥 الخلاصة..عندما يتحول خطاب القيادة من إدارة الأزمات إلى استعراض الإنجازات الصغيرة… فهذا مؤشر على خلل في مركز القرار
المشهد الآن: حضور إعلامي… مقابل فراغ استراتيجي يتسع بسرعة

✍️ مكاوي الملك | Makkawi Elmalik

[Jacquie_RN 🇨🇦🩺🌸🌷 @jacquie_rn]

He’s always leaning to the right now
Advancing dementia ✔️

[Brandon Weichert @WeTheBrandon]

So, now I can wade into this...It does look like Iran has a nuclear weapon. It does look like Iran is nearing potential testing of it. And it does look like it was expedited by Trump's war.

Thanks.

[Ro Khanna @RoKhanna]

The tide is turning. In past years I used to be the only no vote on the House Armed Services Committee. This year 12 Democrats opposed the near 1.2 trillion Pentagon budget.

[Who Was That Masked Man?🇺🇸🦅 @WasMasked]

@FordJohnathan5 @KarinChristoph6 @tedlieu

[Ford News @FordJohnathan5]

BREAKINGNEWS: This is exactly what Representative Ted Lieu was speaking about and Secretary Marco Rubio was denying he ever witnessed. Sleepy Donald needed nappy nappy time in Oval Office. @tedlieu 🚨

[Shin Kiyohime @FoilingMothra]

So embarrassing

[Chili Dog @RobertJMolnar]

look at this shit

what in the actual fuck are we doing

[Donald J. Gorbachev @donaldgorbachev]

The financials he couldn’t find.

[Donald J. Gorbachev @donaldgorbachev]

👇

[Donald J. Gorbachev @donaldgorbachev]

the five-second epistemology

Aswath Damodaran put a price on SpaceX. Ninety-seven dollars and eighty-three cents. To the cent. They gave him a chair for this and they call him the Dean of Valuation. The Dean read a foundry and handed in a flowchart.

He told you straight out the value is “driven by narrative,” that the answers to the big questions “are not in the financials.” Translation: he could not find them. They were in the filing the whole time — cost per kilo from eighteen thousand five hundred down to two thousand seven hundred, seventy-five percent of every maneuvering satellite in the sky, a gigawatt of compute stood up in a hundred and twenty-two days, a booster caught out of the air by the tower that built it. He looked at the most legible industrial machine ever filed and called it a “story.”

Then he posted the proof. He drew his entire method as a diagram and labeled the box in the middle of it “The Valuation Story” — his word, story — and every single node feeding that box is a number he types in himself. “Total market size.” “The market share you expect to capture.” “Target revenues in year ten.” “Target operating margin.” Read the verbs. Expect. Target. Potential. There is not one box in the whole chart for the company. Not one node for the engines, the cost curve, the network that owns the sky, the tower that catches the rocket, the line that builds a data center in four months. The machine that actually exists appears nowhere on the map of how he values it. He built a tree out of his own guesses, drew arrows between them, and called the output “intrinsic value.” The confession is hanging in public with twenty-four thousand views on it: the number is five opinions in a trench coat. He thinks drawing an assumption as a box turns the assumption into a fact. He mistook the size of his own apparatus for knowledge of the company. He built a cathedral of inputs and forgot to put SpaceX inside it — then carried the empty answer to the penny and told you the market was wrong.

He had the AI line at one hundred million dollars. It came in at three-point-two billion. Off by thirty-two times on the single business the whole fight is about, and he waved it off as “no surprise, in the aggregate.” A model too blunt to find the company it is pricing, worn by a man too pleased to look.

He counted three businesses one at a time — launch here, network there, AI in the corner — because his chart has no wire for the thing that matters. SpaceX is one machine. 一条龙. The launch cash buys the satellites, the satellites raise the network, the network funds the chips, the chips raise the compute, the orbit pays the launch back. He scored the links and never saw the chain. The chain is the company. It is not on his diagram either.

And the hedge, the tell of the coward. He says he is “awful” at mood and momentum, that he will “stay in his lane,” that the price is only a “personal judgment.” He wants the authority of the spreadsheet and the trapdoor of the disclaimer in one breath. The lane produced the smallest number on the timeline. The lane is the failure.

A name is not an argument. A chair is not an eye. He named his own method a story, ran the story to two decimal places, and called the foundry overpriced. For the record, dated today: ninety-seven eighty-three is not a valuation. It is a man drawing boxes around his own opinions. Do not let him near this company.

落地.

[Joe Kent @joekent16jan19]

Trump reportedly says the only way he’ll restart the war is if Americans are killed by the Iranians.

Hours later FDD breathlessly argues why we need to leave our troops within range of Iranian missiles & drones.

Does FDD want our troops to be bait or do they just not understand how warfare has evolved?

[Alex JER-dun @alexjordanATL]

"Last I checked, Netanyahu doesn't have a seat on this committee" -@RepRoKhanna

[Mark @Mark4XX]

IRAN ENTERS LEBANON WAR: TRUMP'S CEASEFIRE COLLAPSES IN HOURS

Donald Trump announced that a ceasefire in Lebanon would hold and open the door to serious negotiations with Iran. That announcement has already collapsed. Iran now confirms it will come to Lebanon's defense and strike Israel directly if the attacks continue. The battlefield is moving far faster than any diplomatic timeline from Washington.

THE CEASEFIRE THAT NEVER HELD
➡️ Hezbollah rejected the US-backed ceasefire agreement between Lebanon and Israel without hesitation.
➡️ The group made clear that any acceptable deal must begin with a full Israeli withdrawal from all Lebanese territory.
➡️ Return of displaced people and release of Lebanese prisoners were listed as non-negotiable conditions.
➡️ Hezbollah was never even part of the talks that produced this supposed agreement.

THE IRAN INTERVENTION CONFIRMED
➡️ Iran sent clear diplomatic messages to the United States demanding an immediate end to attacks on Lebanon.
➡️ Iranian officials stated they would have taken action already if the strikes had continued.
➡️ Iran expects at least 50 percent of its frozen assets to be released right after any agreement is signed.
➡️ While Washington talks of progress, Iran is openly preparing to enter the fight on Lebanon's side.

THE QUDS FORCE DEMAND
➡️ The Iranian Quds Force commander declared that Israel must withdraw to positions held before the 40-day war began.
➡️ "The basic demand of the resistance is the withdrawal of the occupation regime to the position before the start of the 40-day war."
➡️ He added that Lebanese fighters would soon reap the fruits of their resistance.

THE BATTLEFIELD REALITY
➡️ Israeli airstrikes continued today in southern Lebanon near Nabatieh.
➡️ Hezbollah struck back with drone attacks on Israeli soldiers and vehicles in the southern town of Al-Qantara.
➡️ Reports also confirm an attack on the vehicle of the Israeli Northern Command chief.
➡️ The ceasefire is broken and the fighting is expanding in real time.

THE TRUMP DIPLOMACY GAP
➡️ President Trump claims negotiations to end the war with Iran are underway and he hopes for an agreement this weekend.
➡️ He stated the ceasefire with Iran will be maintained and US military action would only follow if Iranian forces kill American soldiers.
➡️ He is expected to present a new version of a possible peace deal tonight.
➡️ These words come as Iran prepares to widen the conflict and the Lebanon front reignites.

THE BOTTOM LINE

Trump keeps selling the idea that words and weekend deals can contain the war. The reality shows Iran stepping into Lebanon, Hezbollah striking back hard, and the ceasefire lying in ruins. Every hour the gap between the negotiating table in Washington and the battlefield in Beirut and Tehran grows wider and more dangerous.

This is the sound of a diplomatic house of cards collapsing in real time.
#IranEntersLebanon #CeasefireCollapse #TrumpIranTalks #HezbollahRejection #QudsWarning #LebanonWar #EscalationNow

[Rick Wilson @TheRickWilson]

Womp womp.

[Nomadic Warriors for Pritzker⚔️ @Nomads4Pritzker]

So, I've worked in the beef industry. I have a fairly detailed knowledge of beef markets, the supply chain, parasites and parasiticides, etc. Suffice it to say, this is a nightmare scenario, but one we've known was coming since at least 2022.

New World Screwworm was eradicated from North and Central America in the mid-90's. The US gov't (APHIS) funded a program of screwworm drops, where they bred sterile males so that extant populations couldn't reproduce and move northwards. But in 2022 NWS jumped the Darien gap and started moving northwards once again. It's most likely that they came undetected on livestock brought alongside migrants fleeing political instability in South and Central America. Elon Musk/DOGE, of course, cut several monitoring programs that would have detected this exact scenario. The screwworm drops are still funded, but the monitoring programs are what have been cut - a stupid move if there ever was one.

A serious Central/South America policy would have worked hand-in-hand with CA/SA governments to help contain this, but we've never had a serious policy towards South America, not during the Biden years, and especially not under Trump. The USDA broke ground on a sterile screwworm facility in Texas... last month. I worry it's too little, too late.

Screwworm is so dangerous because, unlike other fly larvae, they lay eggs and feed on living flesh. So something like a small scratch (or even bug bite) can quickly becomes infested, and the larvae will burrow into the flesh, growing the wound and attracting more screwworm. They don't only parasitize cattle, but will also feed on wildlife, domestic pets, even humans. Since they have detected screwworms in domesticated cattle right now, it's likely that there is a wild reservoir as well. We can quarantine herds and pets, but we can't quarantine deer and armadillos. They will move, and so will the NWS.

Under normal circumstances, cattle are moved around - a lot. Calves will be sent to stockers through their adolescence, then shipped to feedlots for finishing. A lot of calving operations (like 70%) are small, and small-time producers don't always catch parasite infestations. Cattle moved in-state don't require a certificate of veterinary inspection, so it's easy for an infested animal to be moved without being noticed. Animals crossing state lines do need a CVI, but Texas has such an enormous cattle population (something like 13 million head) that as goes Texas, so goes the nation.

Fortunately, we have a lot of drugs that treat NWS. The FDA has issued several emergency use authorizations in the last year or so. But every input raises the price of beef, and treatment only makes a difference if producers catch an infestation early. If an infestation spreads unnoticed on a large feedlot, it can hit hard, both in terms of cattle that have to be killed, and treatments that then have to be deployed. Producers will spend days at a time running cattle through the chute, inspecting them and applying parasiticides. It costs a lot of money, which is then passed on to the consumer.

What does that mean for you? Beef is a commodity, and just because there's no NWS up here in Illinois doesn't mean that prices won't skyrocket - and they will skyrocket. US herd size is already at record lows, and this will result in culls. Consumer prices also run 18-24 months behind, which means that shocks to the supply chain now are still going to be felt by consumers in 2028.

It's hard to say if our government will be able to muster an effective response - though I don't trust our current administration, which can't even throw a 250th anniversary party, to be able to deal with an ecological issue of this magnitude. It doesn't help that our current USDA secretary is a lawyer and think-tank creature. I don't much trust the state government of Texas either. The industry has also taken the workforce of large animal veterinarians for granted - a monopoly/market power issue that I just can't get in to here.

For me, it comes back to our federal government having an incoherent policy on Central and South America. We knew what was coming, we know what's going to happen, but we cut the program meant to prevent this scenario. Instead of taking those countries seriously as partners, the government has been stupid and domineering.

Here's the kicker: this is what the industry voted for. They might scream, they might get bailed out, but all that means is that you, the consumer, are going to be paying more for beef, plus whatever bailout gets shoveled their way. Until the industry accepts that they are part of a larger system; that they cannot eternally privatize the gains and publicize the losses of beef production; that they need to consider sustainability and stewardship in the management of their operations, this is only going to keep happening. Eventually, they may find that there is very little goodwill for them among the public, and people will decide that a Brazilian ribeye tastes just as good as one from Texas.

[Chili Dog @RobertJMolnar]

at risk of getting suspended again, this will be my last post on this matter

this is an absolute disgrace, embarrassment, and humiliation or America....what President has ever constantly passed out in the Oval Office, in front of cameras, in the middle of the day?

There are no "blinks", there are no spinning this....Donald Trump is a sick mess

Enough of this shit

[Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb]

When they don't say *who* attacked, you know it is (what is currently known as) the state of Israel.