Foss - #dothemath

Credit Markets veteran |All Fiats are melting ice cubes |Bitcoin advocate

[Foss - #dothemath @FossGregfoss]

Hey world investors:

Global debt is a US$400T asset that is programmed to debase (it is a Fiat contract).

#btc is a sub US$1T asset that is programmed as the most secure Store of Value ever created (math + code)

Where do you think the smart money will flow?

#mathishard

[Cory Klippsten 🦢 Swan.com @CorySwan]

THE "FED PUT" ISN’T A CONSPIRACY.

IT’S MATH.

The Fed doesn’t really have a put under the stock market.

It has one under the debt system.

And once you understand why, you understand a lot more about where the dollar is headed, and why many choose to store value in hard assets.

[Foss - #dothemath @FossGregfoss]

@APompliano @jvisserlabs Some very insightful analysis as always from @jvisserlabs

✊🏻

[Foss - #dothemath @FossGregfoss]

The big money center banks are “too big to fail” and will get bailed out as they always do.

It is the other 9700+ small banks in the USA that fail on a regular basis due to mismatched assets and liabilities (GAP management) or capital deficiencies etc that can cause a run on the banks.

[James Lavish @jameslavish]

This, my friends, is becoming a problem for the US Treasury.

[The Economic LongWave @TheELongWave]

“Canada Still Thinks It Is Rich. Its Balance Sheet Says Otherwise

Canada Is Entering the Fourth Stage of a Sovereign’s Life Cycle

(Ray Dalio's) Bridgewater describes five broad stages in the rise and decline of nations.

Canada increasingly resembles the fourth stage: a country becoming poorer while still thinking of itself as rich.

This is the final phase of leveraging up.

Debts rise faster than incomes because society has become accustomed to prosperity. The generations that remember scarcity, depression, war, and financial discipline are gradually disappearing. Those making today’s decisions have known primarily rising asset prices, expanding credit and the assumption that tomorrow will always be wealthier than today.

The country continues to spend as though its productive capacity were still growing rapidly. But real income growth slows, productivity weakens, and the cost of living rises.

Rather than adjust spending to slower income growth, households and governments:

• save less
• borrow more
• extend repayment periods
• tolerate larger deficits
• consume capital rather than build it

The country may still appear wealthy because its citizens own expensive houses, financial assets and government benefits. Yet underneath the surface, household and public balance sheets steadily deteriorate.

🏠 Asset inflation is mistaken for national prosperity.

A million-dollar house does not necessarily mean the country has become more productive.

It may simply mean that decades of easier credit have capitalized future income into today’s land prices.

Meanwhile, investment shifts away from productive activity and toward existing assets.

Less money flows into:

• infrastructure
• machinery and productive capacity
• research and development
• transportation
• energy systems
• new industries

More credit flows into:

• mortgages
• land speculation
• government consumption
• financial engineering
• maintaining inflated asset prices

The result is slower productivity growth, weaker competitiveness and declining real living standards.

Cities become more congested. Infrastructure ages. Housing becomes unaffordable. Business investment weakens. The trade position deteriorates. The country increasingly relies on its historical reputation, political stability and financial credibility rather than its current productive strength.

Canada can still appear rich even as it becomes structurally poorer.

That is the danger of the fourth stage: the appearance of wealth remains long after the productive
foundations of that wealth have begun to erode.

This is also where Bridgewater’s framework meets the Economic LongWave.

🍂 During Economic Autumn, falling interest rates and rising asset values create the illusion that finance itself is producing wealth.

❄️ Economic Winter begins when debts can no longer rise faster than incomes, and the country is forced to confront the difference between paper wealth and productive wealth.

Canada’s challenge is not simply excessive debt. It is that decades of borrowing have increasingly supported existing asset prices rather than the creation of new productive capacity.

The encouraging point is that decline is not destiny.

🔥 Schumpeter’s Creative Destruction eventually breaks down obsolete institutions, business models and financial structures.

🌱 A new Economic Spring begins when capital is redirected toward productivity, technology,
infrastructure, affordable energy and new industries.

Canada does not need to become a poor country. But it must stop confusing expensive assets, expanding credit and government spending with genuine national wealth.

A country becomes wealthy by what it produces, invents and builds, not by how much debt it can place against yesterday’s assets.

[Foss - #dothemath @FossGregfoss]

@anthonysagami And $200 trillion of non funded obligations

[Foss - #dothemath @FossGregfoss]

@APompliano cc; @bigsuey @AndrewKiguel

[Foss - #dothemath @FossGregfoss]

@halstonvalencia @adamobrien @bitcoinwell Good work Adam and team

[Foss - #dothemath @FossGregfoss]

@tomwesleyson @WC25B @BTCasey_ @ToddAultIII Understood. Thanks

[Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport]

Private credit is cracking where no one's looking. Apollo redemptions hit 16.8% in Q2, capped at 5%. KBRA's default index just matched its all-time high. Marks stay calm as credit rots underneath: https://t.co/eR4rRu2zUl

[Foss - #dothemath @FossGregfoss]

@AdamBLiv There is a greater than 0% probability that BTC is lower over time…

Not my base case but just saying..

[Foss - #dothemath @FossGregfoss]

@BTCasey_ @WC25B @ToddAultIII Gonna get more info from Todd.

My gut says the business model has legs.

NFA.

[Foss - #dothemath @FossGregfoss]

@WC25B @ToddAultIII I am doing more work.

[Foss - #dothemath @FossGregfoss]

@BitWhitman @_J64_ @JoeConsorti @Strategy It was the correct decision imo.

[Foss - #dothemath @FossGregfoss]

@m0xt_ Nice work. Thk u. $GLXY

[Foss - #dothemath @FossGregfoss]

@anthonysagami @Kalshibacktest When u include unfunded liabilities it is $200 trillion

[Foss - #dothemath @FossGregfoss]

@xcsler @RaoulGMI Not always a choice due to law of diminishing returns…more of the economy goes underground. Plus who gets reelected raising taxes.

[Foss - #dothemath @FossGregfoss]

@xcsler @RaoulGMI When interest expense on the debt exceeds tax revenue less the “core deficit” (social security, military etc) then the debt expands organically.