$SOXL up 16 days consecutive days in a row and up over 160% since March 30th bottom!
1st time this has happened since $SOXL came into existence in 2010
It's "reciprocal tariffs on reciprocal tariffs" week:
After imposing tariffs on 185 countries at ONCE, we expect retaliation this week.
The US stock market has lost $11.1 TRILLION in 44 trading days, equivalent to ~38% of US GDP.
Here's what you need to know.
(a thread)
SUMMARY OF JPMORGAN’S REVISED OUTLOOK (APRIL 2025):
🔸 GDP Growth: JPMorgan Chase now expects U.S. real GDP to shrink by -0.3% for the year, down sharply from the previous +1.3% projection.
🔸 Unemployment: Forecasted to rise to 5.3% due to weaker economic activity.
🔸 Inflation: Core PCE inflation revised up to 4.4%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points, driven mainly by new tariffs.
Federal Reserve Policy:
🔸 Easing expected to start in June.
🔸 Rate cuts anticipated at every meeting through January, potentially bringing the top of the federal funds rate down to 3.0%.
🔸 Risk lies more in delayed easing rather than earlier action.
Tariffs' Effects:
🔸 Higher inflation will erode real income and consumer spending.
🔸 Export volumes are expected to suffer due to retaliatory tariffs, especially from China.
Consumer Behavior:
🔸 Households may be reluctant to dip into savings to maintain spending levels amid growing uncertainty.
Timing of Weakness:
🔸 The third and fourth quarters of the year will likely see the worst economic performance, partly due to a reversal of Q1 dynamics (imports/inventories).
Stagflation Risk:
🔸 Feroli sees this as a stagflationary environment: high inflation + slowing growth + rising unemployment.
🔸 However, he believes weakness in the labor market could ultimately calm the Fed’s inflation fears, particularly if wage growth softens.
My advice to foreign leaders is that if you have not already reached out to President @realDonaldTrump, you need to do so immediately. Trump is, at his core, a dealmaker who sees the world as a series of transactions.
Based on his track record to date with foreign governments, law firms, and universities, he is a tough, but fair negotiator. He loves to make deals and he loves to get things done promptly.
I expect Trump will reward the early dealmakers with fairer deals than those that wait to sit down at the negotiating table. Countries that respond with additional tariffs on our goods will be severely punished. The carrot and the stick writ large, Big Boy style.
The Art of the Deal will soon be sold out on @amazon. But if you are running a foreign country that is now subject to massive tariffs, don't wait to read the book.
Just pick up the phone. Call the President, and make a deal.
Just some advice from a friend of the global economy.
@DeItaone Smart! We all know what happened with China during Trump 1.0 when they went tit for tat… they lost their spot as far as being the no.1 trading partner with the US and went down to no.3… now Mexico is at the top…
Trump: "After speaking with President Claudia Sheinbaum of Mexico, I have agreed that Mexico will not be required to pay Tariffs on anything that falls under the USMCA Agreement."
"This Agreement is until April 2nd. I did this as an accommodation, and out of respect for, President Sheinbaum."
"Our relationship has been a very good one, and we are working hard, together, on the Border, both in terms of stopping Illegal Aliens from entering the United States and, likewise, stopping Fentanyl. Thank you to President Sheinbaum for your hard work and cooperation!"