Barlow

FPL vet playing since 09/10. 6 top 20k #FPL finishes. 2 top 10k #FPL finishes. Best #FPL finish - 384th 16/17. Most recent finish - 312k 25/26

[Barlow @FpLbarlow]

Perfectly said

[Kanji FPL @KanjiFPL]

A Reflection on EPL & FPL in 2026:
The modern Premier League is facing a massive tactical crisis. The beautiful game is being replaced by a hyper optimized, elite low block. Teams have realized they don't need to take a risk and play open, expansive football when defending as a unit is the ultimate weapon. Open play goals are plummeting as a result, turning matches that used to be wide open thrillers into slow burn chess games won entirely on dead ball situations.

We honestly have to congratulate Arsenal here. You have to be happy for them, they fundamentally altered the tactical DNA of English football. They looked at the league and decided to weaponize structure. Between a suffocating defensive shape and weaponizing corner kicks, they've mastered a way to win without needing to take too much risk. It is a mechanical, brilliant masterclass from Arteta. However, let's be completely real, is it fun to watch? I don't even watch the first half of Arsenal games anymore because it'll only be 0-0 or 1-0 by the 50th minute anyway, so I wouldn't have missed much! 🤷‍♂️
This tactical shift is completely breaking Fantasy Premier League. Since Prem managers are turning ultra defensive and the FPL points system now gives extra points for Defensive Contributions (DEFCON), the temptation to play more than two strikers is basically dead (maybe it was dying anyway). Literally only three strikers have 15 plus goals this season (Haaland, Thiago and Joao Pedro). There just aren't many reliable forward assets who easily drop 15 plus goals a season anymore like we used to rely on. We essentially have to buy into the DEFCON points machine and breathe it in. If you can't beat them, join them. FPL is evolving and becoming more optimal, so you gotta adjust too!

If this points structure is here to stay next year, which only @FFScout_Mark would know, the data algorithms are getting a massive, permanent advantage over the average FPL manager. The entire world of the game is changing around us. FPL is becoming completely algorithmic and optimal. Set piece takers, DEFCON merchants, 90 minute defensive floors... this is exactly what the data models crave, and it's created a completely rigid, optimal way to play the game.

Look at the space now. @LetsTalk_FPL has basically become a model review merchant and @FPLFocal exactly the same. @Pras_fpl has his own affiliate website following these trends with @SolioAnalytics too. I'm sure other CCs will follow suit, as these guys are the best! All the best FPL managers in the world are obsessed with these predictive models to remain hyper optimal. Who can even blame them, if it's giving good results? Of course, xmins predictions will always be the skill, but this isn't the game that I used to love. I loved FPL for its fun and chaos. In addition, the average FPL player is just much more informed, meaning the actual edge you get from using these models yourself is going to rapidly decrease. The content creators will just pump out the exact data from whatever models they use directly to the masses next season, if they haven't been doing it already this year.

Are we trapped in a permanent era where football and FPL are just about whoever holds the best defensive solidity? Only time will tell.

All I know is this version of FPL isn't the one that I love. FPL is so concerned about creating a game that helps market the Premier League, so at the core of it, the engaged fanbase isn't its target market. So they don't care about us. How long am I going to put up with playing a game that I love and I've filmed on multiple YouTube channels and posted thousands of tweets about, but I'm losing the fun and enjoyment over? Yes, green arrows are fun, but I remember wanting to own attacking differentials to climb the ranks, but now it'll be defensive beasts and DEFCON merchants that will be key to FPL success. Are you really going to watch Premier League football and want to watch a DEFCON merchant from a below average team just to get his DEFCON points? Where's the enjoyment in watching that? I don't get it. I used to love FPL, but it's changing and I think it's changing for the worse.

Regardless, I have 1 conclusion. The advancement of AI has impacted every industry, including FPL, so wake up and smell the coffee. If you're not leveraging AI in your day-to-day, you are really falling behind and that goes as well for FPL. I just didn't want the 1 game that I love to change, and maybe I'm just a FPL romantic or maybe I'm just getting older now, but I loved the way things used to be. Now there's less enjoyment. FPL is becoming boring and I only played FPL so I could get more enjoyment from watching the football. Sooo...

I think next season will be my last FPL season. I just know there are diminishing returns in terms of how much time I invest into this game, so I don't think it's worth the effort and energy to look for differentials to beat the template because I just don't think it's worth the risk anymore. I don't even ENJOY it. I used to love watching differential assets like Raphinha at Leeds or Mane at Liverpool and waiting for a good fixture run so I could double up with Bamford + Raphinha or Salah + Mane, but I just don't know if this is optimal FPL anymore. It is just sad and I think it might be my last season next year. Maybe I'm over-exaggerating? Maybe I will still continue to play the game, but the time and effort I spend on it will be cut by 50% every year until it's once again worth putting more effort in. At the end of the day, we play a game to enjoy it, but I just haven't been enjoying it that much this season.

[Barlow @FpLbarlow]

@FPLGOAT7 If someone avoided WC32 for a different strategy of WC35, why would they WC in 11 players from the WC32 template. Makes no sense.

[Barlow @FpLbarlow]

@FPLNightmare @CharlieVantFPL Connected variance, or something similar. Basically if you’re going for one attack or defence, stacking gives you a more connected variance. Stacked defenders gets more cleansheets or your attackers getting both the goal and assist when on the same team if you back them to score.

[Barlow @FpLbarlow]

@FPLConQueror Yeah exactly, comfortably under the threshold.

[Barlow @FpLbarlow]

@FPLNightmare @fplblackbox_az Are his defcons an outlier though? Prior to the last 3 games, he hadn’t reached defcon all season.

[Barlow @FpLbarlow]

@fpl_tactician Great point regarding Wolves and Defcons. Most CB’s at home to Wolves struggle to reach it, I’d not realised.

[Barlow @FpLbarlow]

@chewiefpl Thanks mate appreciate that 👍🏻

[Barlow @FpLbarlow]

Nail. On. The. Head.

[FPL Toni @FplToni]

It’s so funny seeing so many talking about buying Salah to C him, it’s pure talk based on models because i refuse to believe that you watched Liverpool and make this move but it’s fpl so if enough people buy he probs gets few pens

[Barlow @FpLbarlow]

@physioscout Rodon please and Nico O’Reilly.

[Barlow @FpLbarlow]

@chewiefpl You and me captained Ndiaye and now Salah at the same time. One of us is cursed.

[Barlow @FpLbarlow]

@BigmanFpl Wonder if Tripps was telling him to give Wolt a chance?

[Barlow @FpLbarlow]

@FPLVillan Do you expect him to start or for Tammy to get another run out?

[Barlow @FpLbarlow]

@TrophyFpl Branth came back and didn’t look rusty at all, he looked great. He’s nailed, has to be, so then Keane has to displace Tarko/Obrien. I assume O’Brien goes back to RB as Patterson doesn’t look great.

[Barlow @FpLbarlow]

@chewiefpl Yep. The hope was the worst part about it. After few captains hauling, Ndiaye hailing last night would have been huge for us. To be fair, other than the one chance early on, he didn’t get much of a sniff.

[Barlow @FpLbarlow]

@BakerFPL343 still true regardless of an underwhelming outcome so far.

[Barlow @FpLbarlow]

@BakerFPL343 Infact, even if it doesn’t come off for you, you still deserve huge praise for the bravery.

[Barlow @FpLbarlow]

@chewiefpl Yeah that’s my worry. I’d prefer BB25 but might go BB24 as Kroupi seems to potentially be getting more and more risky with minutes.