Cal FPL

FPL stats & analysis 🦈 | MSc Data Analytics | Decisions that looked good on paper

[Cal FPL @FPLStatsShark]

239k ➡️ 39k🟢🚀

A 200k-place green arrow with 73 points!

All the points coming from mega hauls at the back🦍

Huge GW!

#FPL

[Cal FPL @FPLStatsShark]

FPL DEFCON Watch GW1-6🛡️ Who's going under the radar? 👀

Only two players have hit DEFCON in 5 of the opening 6 GWs.

Meanwhile, a monster GW6 haul sees £4.0m Thomas climb to the top of the defender rankings for total defensive contributions.

#FPL

[Cal FPL @FPLStatsShark]

@fantopy Yes I can refresh this closer to the deadline! Could be some meaningful changes with some teams playing in Europe midweek

[Cal FPL @FPLStatsShark]

FPL Gameweek 7: Team Goals & Clean Sheet Projections 📊🦈

Derived from sharp market data to help inform transfer, captaincy and benching decisions.

#FPL

[Cal FPL @FPLStatsShark]

@FPLFocal Captaincy fail

[Cal FPL @FPLStatsShark]

Who combines strong goal threat with a favourable GW6 fixture? 📊

With captaincy wide open this week, there are some interesting names in the target zone 👀🦈

#FPL

[Cal FPL @FPLStatsShark]

Who’s actually hitting DEFCON consistently so far?🤔
Here’s a breakdown of hit rate and DEFCON/90 across the first 5 gameweeks🦈#FPL

[Cal FPL @FPLStatsShark]

Is Gabriel a genuine captaincy alternative? 👀

My model has Haaland v LIV (A):
⚽ Score 53%
⚽⚽ Score 2+ 18%

Gabriel v LEE (H):
🧤 ARS CS 46%
🛡️ CB DEFCON hit rate v Leeds 83%
⚽ Score 14%

Only 5 GWs of data, but Gabriel’s floor + multiple routes to points are tempting. #FPL

[Cal FPL @FPLStatsShark]

@zackaria01 Feel like we’ll be kicking ourselves if we don’t go there and King/Gonzalo smashes it

[Cal FPL @FPLStatsShark]

@FPL_Salah Are you de-marginating the prices? I’ve got my projections coming out slightly lower across the board

[Cal FPL @FPLStatsShark]

@FFH_HQ Considering Mbeumo or Gabriel, but will probably default to Haaland

[Cal FPL @FPLStatsShark]

🚨FPL Gameweek 6 Team Goals and Clean Sheet Projections🦈
Derived from sharp market data to make informed transfer, captaincy and benching decisions

[Cal FPL @FPLStatsShark]

@FPLGuruOfficial Put Janelt in my team last week 🤝 Not sure how sustainable the attacking returns are, but agree the floor is great for an 8th attacker. He featured in my last post on players with the biggest DEFCON changes so far this season too

[Cal FPL @FPLStatsShark]

@FPL_NYSM Had Semenyo from the start. Data is concerning, but we’ve never really had a City winger this nailed before! Hard to believe the output completely disappears after 17 goals last season if the minutes stay this strong

[Cal FPL @FPLStatsShark]

@FPL_Armo Saka for me. Running at 0.75 npxG/90 vs Palmer’s 0.37. Palmer’s points do tend to come in big spikes though

[Cal FPL @FPLStatsShark]

@FPL_TomHadley Defo tempted to take him on. Saka is running at 0.91xG/90 with a reasonable home fixture. Can’t really get to him tho. Might go Gabriel but that could be forcing the differential 🤔

[Cal FPL @FPLStatsShark]

🚨 Player DEFCON Changes 🚨
Who’s trending up — and who’s dropped off? A look at the biggest changes in player DEFCON/90 compared with last season. Some new DEFCON monsters emerging 👀🦈
#FPL

[Cal FPL @FPLStatsShark]

Are we actually seeing more goals than normal this season? 🦈
The numbers suggest not by much. Instead, it looks like our perception is being shaped by a spike in high-scoring games — 1 in 5 matches so far have had 5+ goals!
#FPL #EPL

[Cal FPL @FPLStatsShark]

Are DEFCON numbers up or down so far this season? 🦈
Through GW5, the hit rate is 3.28 players per match — below last season’s 3.73, but almost identical to GW1–5 last year (3.20).
DEFCON peaked over the festive period at 4.66 across GW16–20.
#FPL

[Cal FPL @FPLStatsShark]

International break boredom, so I’ve finally made an FPL account 🦈
366 pts | OR 254k | 2 FTs
Going to share some of the analysis behind my FPL decisions