Tom Frederick | LMS HQ

Last Man Standing (LMS) football analysis picks, avoids & post-week lessons as articles on Substack Survived 9 weeks | FPL OR 24/25: 57k

[Tom Frederick | LMS HQ @FPLTom92]

Bolton pulled off one of the wildest comebacks of the season last weekend.

2–0 down in the 88th minute… they won 3–2.

They now face a Rotherham side who have scored just 2 goals in their last 7 games.

My Last Man Standing picks for this weekend are now live. Top 3 included
👇🏽

[Tom Frederick | LMS HQ @FPLTom92]

@oliviadann08 @Boro @wembleystadium All of this happened to me too.

[Tom Frederick | LMS HQ @FPLTom92]

A five-fold minimum ✅

[Tom Frederick | LMS HQ @FPLTom92]

@NTT20Pod @GeorgeElek @AliMaxwell_ Here is my biggest acca win this season:

A five-fold ✅

52.51 odds ✅

Teams to score 2+ goals from the EFL ✅

[Tom Frederick | LMS HQ @FPLTom92]

https://t.co/VcHLhigD1m

[Tom Frederick | LMS HQ @FPLTom92]

Bolton pulled off one of the wildest comebacks of the season last weekend.

2–0 down in the 88th minute… they won 3–2.

They now face a Rotherham side who have scored just 2 goals in their last 7 games.

My Last Man Standing picks for this weekend are now live. Top 3 included
👇🏽

[Tom Frederick | LMS HQ @FPLTom92]

New Last Man Standing picks are taking shape for this weekend.

Early contenders: Man City, Millwall, Ipswich, Bolton. But there are red flags everywhere – several “big” teams look unsafe.

Arsenal, Liverpool and Middlesbrough all make my avoid list. Full analysis coming soon.

[Tom Frederick | LMS HQ @FPLTom92]

Last Man Standing results:

Derby 2–1 Sheffield Wednesday ✅ (our household pick)
Ipswich 1–1 Leicester ❌
Sheffield Utd 1–1 West Brom ❌

Record: 17W – 15L

One clear lesson:
Sheffield Wednesday now have 14 straight defeats.

Sometimes the simplest LMS strategy is the best one.

[Tom Frederick | LMS HQ @FPLTom92]

@NTT20Pod @AliMaxwell_ @GeorgeElek Omari Kellyman is in the line-up 👀

[Tom Frederick | LMS HQ @FPLTom92]

Last Man Standing this weekend:

Sheffield Wednesday – 13 straight defeats
West Brom – 13 away losses
Leicester – 10 without a win

My Top 3:
1️⃣ Sheffield United
2️⃣ Ipswich
3️⃣ Derby

Target collapse. Back motivation.
Full breakdown on Substack 👇

https://t.co/fE101LZvAw

[Tom Frederick | LMS HQ @FPLTom92]

Swindon 1–1 ❌
Southampton 3–1 ✅ (our household pick)
Lincoln 4–0 ✅

Record now: 16W – 13L

Process was good again this week — backed strong home sides, avoided the big-name traps, and survived.

Full results breakdown on Substack 👇

https://t.co/PKIZm4qg0w

[Tom Frederick | LMS HQ @FPLTom92]

Fresh league. Fresh slate.

My Top 3 for Last Man Standing this weekend:
1️⃣ Swindon
2️⃣ Lincoln
3️⃣ Southampton

Full write-up (with stats + red flags on Liverpool, Man City & Coventry) on Substack 👇

https://t.co/jKj50s677r

[Tom Frederick | LMS HQ @FPLTom92]

Back in my Last Man Standing league after the reset.

Early teams I’m considering this weekend (no picks yet):
Brentford, Liverpool, Man City, Coventry, Southampton, Lincoln, Swindon, Crewe, Fleetwood.

Full write-up coming Wednesday after midweek games.

[Tom Frederick | LMS HQ @FPLTom92]

Last Man Standing was absolute chaos this weekend.

Boro 0–0
Millwall lose 3–1 at home (first bottom-half home defeat all season)
Chelsea concede a 93rd-minute equaliser

Even my own LMS league ended on a 10-man derby win.

Sometimes it’s not bad picks. It’s just LMS being LMS.

[Tom Frederick | LMS HQ @FPLTom92]

Cardiff losing 3-1 before half time to Plymouth… a team I mentioned in my notable omissions in my Last Man Standing write-ups 👌🏽

[Tom Frederick | LMS HQ @FPLTom92]

Last Man Standing (20–22 Feb)

This is a proper red-flag weekend. Lots of “should win” teams… and loads of traps.

My Top 3:
Middlesbrough
Chelsea
Millwall

Full breakdown + notable avoids on Substack 👇

https://t.co/qoBcmBEHUR

[Tom Frederick | LMS HQ @FPLTom92]

Early Last Man Standing leans (20–22 Feb):
Considering Chelsea, Middlesbrough, Millwall, Southampton, Bolton, Luton, Stockport, Cambridge (away), Notts County.

Avoiding City, Villa, Brentford & Cardiff — safer gaps elsewhere.

Full write-up on Wednesday after midweek games.

[Tom Frederick | LMS HQ @FPLTom92]

One thing I’m quietly happy with this week:

4 of the 5 teams I advised avoiding all failed to win.

Chesterfield ❌
Swindon ❌
QPR ❌
Colchester ❌

In Last Man Standing, dodging traps is half the battle.

[Tom Frederick | LMS HQ @FPLTom92]

Last Man Standing is cruel 😩

Barnet had 8 shots to 0 at HT… and still drew 0–0.

The good news:
✅ Millwall won
✅ MK Dons won
❌ Barnet drew

Season record now: 14W–9L
Full recap on Substack 👇

https://t.co/rrGi4TfyOO

[Tom Frederick | LMS HQ @FPLTom92]

This is exactly why LMS is about survival, not dominance.
Barnet were “comfortable” for 45 mins and still couldn’t score.

Picks don’t need to be pretty. They just need to win.

[Tom Frederick | LMS HQ @FPLTom92]

A few big traps this week (QPR/Blackburn, Cambridge/Bristol Rovers, Shrewsbury/Swindon).

This feels like a “survive first, be clever later” LMS round.

[Tom Frederick | LMS HQ @FPLTom92]

FA Cup weekend = thin Last Man Standing slate 😬

My Top 3 for 13th–15th Feb:
1️⃣ Millwall
2️⃣ MK Dons
3️⃣ Barnet

Full breakdown is live 👇

https://t.co/5F5iutc9Le