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MLB Analysis

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@TheProfit_AI They're one of my favorites

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Where is the value here? #mlb

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Where is the value here? #mlb

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Don't sleep on the New Orleans Saints this season

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In the middle of the 2025 NFL season, the New Orleans Saints were looking like one of the leagues bottom dwellers. Then they decided to trot out Tyler Shough instead of Spencer Rattler at the quarterback position. The results were quite fruitful, the Saints were 5-4 in their last 9 games of the season, and Tyler Shough finished as the runner up in Offensive Rookie of the Year voting. The Saints hold a last place schedule in 2026, and have the second easiest schedule coming into the season.

Most projections and rankings have this squad ranked quite low. I see an offense with a high powered potential. Head coach Kellen Moore has a great track record, orchestrating lethal passing attacks for years in Dallas, a 2023 Chargers offense that put up the most yardage in the league, and a Super Bowl winning offense in Philadelphia that holds the record for the most points scored in the postseason. Tyler Shough looked great last year after inheriting an offense held back by Spencer Rattler. This is easily the most slept on offensive attack in the league right now. Travis Etienne is a great workhouse and Alvin Kamara still brings explosive potential. Chris Olave, Jordyn Tyson, Devaughn Vele, and Juwan Johnson will complement Shough’s explosive 2026 campaign.
New Orleans’ defense is pretty average all around. Chase Young and Kool-Aid McKinstry are great pieces and the defense does not have any glaring deficiencies. An average defense paired with the Saints’ offensive potential gives this team a lot of upside. I think this team holds some of the highest preseason value coming into this year.

Looking at this schedule conservatively, I project a 9 win season. They have a 3rd place schedule and participate in a weak NFC South division. I can realistically see this team putting together a 10-7 or 11-6 season. I like New Orleans to clear their win total line of 7.5. I like the Saints to win the NFC South at +265 even more. This is the team in the NFC South with the highest upside, and I believe they are mispriced right now. However, their season opener line against Detroit has shifted from +7 to +6.5, so if you can grab this line above the key number take it.

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In the middle of the 2025 NFL season, the New Orleans Saints were looking like one of the leagues bottom dwellers. Then they decided to trot out Tyler Shough instead of Spencer Rattler at the quarterback position. The results were quite fruitful, the Saints were 5-4 in their last 9 games of the season, and Tyler Shough finished as the runner up in Offensive Rookie of the Year voting. The Saints hold a last place schedule in 2026, and have the second easiest schedule coming into the season.

Most projections and rankings have this squad ranked quite low. I see an offense with a high powered potential. Head coach Kellen Moore has a great track record, orchestrating lethal passing attacks for years in Dallas, a 2023 Chargers offense that put up the most yardage in the league, and a Super Bowl winning offense in Philadelphia that holds the record for the most points scored in the postseason. Tyler Shough looked great last year after inheriting an offense held back by Spencer Rattler. This is easily the most slept on offensive attack in the league right now. Travis Etienne is a great workhouse and Alvin Kamara still brings explosive potential. Chris Olave, Jordyn Tyson, Devaughn Vele, and Juwan Johnson will complement Shough’s explosive 2026 campaign.
New Orleans’ defense is pretty average all around. Chase Young and Kool-Aid McKinstry are great pieces and the defense does not have any glaring deficiencies. An average defense paired with the Saints’ offensive potential gives this team a lot of upside. I think this team holds some of the highest preseason value coming into this year.

Looking at this schedule conservatively, I project a 9 win season. They have a 3rd place schedule and participate in a weak NFC South division. I can realistically see this team putting together a 10-7 or 11-6 season. I like New Orleans to clear their win total line of 7.5. I like the Saints to win the NFC South at +265 even more. This is the team in the NFC South with the highest upside, and I believe they are mispriced right now. However, their season opener line against Detroit has shifted from +7 to +6.5, so if you can grab this line above the key number take it.

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The Twins are buying!

[Jeff Passan @JeffPassan]

Trade news: The Minnesota Twins are acquiring left-handed reliever A.J. Minter from the New York Mets, sources tell ESPN.

The Mets’ selling starts with one of the top relievers on the market. There will be many more Mets deals to come before Aug. 3.

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2026 MLB Trade Deadline Outlook, Athletics
This team has been one of the biggest disappointments in the MLB so far. This team was 38-38 in mid June and has now fallen to 44-62. On top of this awful stretch, star catcher Shea Langeliers is out for the season. Langeliers had an .829 OPS and 23 home runs in 93 games. The other two pieces holding it down offensively for Sacramento have been Nick Kurtz and Tyler Soderstrom. Besides that, the young offensive core has regressed or stagnated. Veterans Brent Rooker and Jeff McNeil have been terrible. Starting pitcher JT Ginn has been great. Luis Severino was solid before his injury, and Gage Jump is contributing. Springs, Civale, and Lopez have struggled. The bullpen is subpar.

There is not much for the Athletics to sell this deadline. Their young guys will play out the rest of the year and hopefully progress. No teams will want their pitchers. This team was supposed to have one of the best offenses in the league, on top of playing in a minor league ballpark. Now, they look like a minor league team and their pitchers get shelled daily. The A’s will not be involved in any significant deadline activity, but their fans can look forward to a bright future and hopefully a more relevant 2027 season.

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MLB Trade Deadline Outlook, Houston Astros:
Houston has clawed its way back from a 20-31 start to within 2.5 games of the AL West and 2 games of the AL Wildcard. While neither of these races required the best performance so far, it is still an impressive comeback. This team has a lot of glaring holes. Their starting pitching has been among the worst in baseball. Mike Burrows has been a massive disappointment. Tatsuya Imai and Kai Wei Teng have been awful. Ronel Blanco is off to a poor start in his return from injury. They are building a revamped rotation led by a healthy Hunter Brown, paired with Peter Lambert, who has been great. Spencer Arrighetti has been serviceable. Houston will certainly be in the market for a starting pitcher at the deadline.

Offensively, Christian Vasquez has been a subpar catcher. Christian Walker, Jeremy Pena, Isaac Paredes have been great lineup pieces to support MVP front runner DH Yordan Alvarez. The Astros will need to add an outfield bat in order to be serious. They have seen no sustained offensive production from their outfield this season. Blue Jays outfielder Daulton Varsho seems to be a solid match for Houston. Perhaps pairing Varsho with SP Kevin Gausman would make sense. Both Varsho and Gausman’s 1st half numbers won’t make Astro fans super excited, but they are upgrades for Houston in areas that have been dragging them through the mud. Alternatively, with the Miami Marlins’ franchise record 12 game losing streak ongoing, South Beach may have some solutions for the Astros. Outfielder Griffin Conine has an .863 OPS in 119 plate appearances. Miami also has some average starting pitchers to provide, like Janson Junk or Ryan Gusto. Sandy Alcantara could also be available. Alcantara leads the MLB in innings pitched, which would relieve a lot of stress on the rest of the Astros depleted pitching staff.

This is a team that is getting hot at the right time. I still believe struggling pitchers like Ronel Blanco and Tatsuya Imai can turn things around. If they can acquire a couple pieces and have Jose Altuve and Taylor Trammell improve, they can contend with any other team in the AL. However, those are a lot of conditions for Houston.

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The Phillies losing streak, fueled by stagnant offense, ends tonight as the team will not face either an ace or a lefty starting pitcher. With Sanchez on the mound and a hittable Yankees pitcher for Philadelphia expect a win for the home team. Picks: Phillies ML, Phillies -1.5

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Cincinnati Reds (+100) will be starting ace Chase Burns in Seattle tonight. Cincinnati is 13-5 in games started by Burns this season and the moneyline presents a value play. Siding with Reds ML at +100 or better

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Perhaps red hot right handed batter Trea Turner can make up some offensive woes for the Phils against lefties

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Justin Wrobleski holds a 2.69 ERA but a 4.13 xERA and 4.25 xFIP. Philadelphia notoriously struggles against left handed pitching, but I see them winning by 2 or more runs tonight. However today should be a lower scoring affair

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Justin Wrobleski holds a 2.69 ERA but a 4.13 xERA and 4.25 xFIP. Philadelphia notoriously struggles against left handed pitching, but I see them winning by 2 or more runs tonight. However today should be a lower scoring affair

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Cashed last night, and I like these same bets in the matchup between Wrobleski and Wheeler right now.

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Cashed last night, and I like these same bets in the matchup between Wrobleski and Wheeler right now.

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MLB Pick: Philadelphia Phillies
Cristopher Sanchez at home has been a cash cow for 2-3 years now. Both the moneyline and -1.5 have been valuable in Sanchez's career at home. The line holds higher value against the defending champion Dodgers. Numbers back Phillies ML -140 and Phillies -1.5 +145.
#mlb #mlbpicks

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2026 MLB Trade Deadline Outlook, Chicago White Sox:
The Chicago White Sox have bounced back remarkably from last year with a 52-46 record on July 20th. They have seen immense offensive production from every position outside of catcher. Their starting rotation has been good overall but will likely need a 5th starter to replace the struggling Noah Schultz. This team is trying to compete for the AL Central and cannot afford to put Schultz out every 5th game for the second half.

Besides catching, it would not make sense for the White Sox to go for a big upgrade in the field as their position players as a whole are both extraordinarily young and productive so far. Chicago needs to go after a catcher and a starting pitcher at the deadline. For pitching, I can see them going to Anaheim. The Angels will be selling at the deadline, Jose Soriano and Reid Detmers have both cooled off from their hot starts but are still commodities. One of these two would be extremely helpful for the backend of the White Sox rotation and Chicago certainly has the capital to get the deal done. For an upgrade at catcher the White Sox should be inquiring about Jonah Heim, the Sacramento Athletics backup catcher. Heim has a .726 OPS in a small sample size of 144 plate appearances but represents a significant upgrade from anyone else the White Sox have trotted out.

The White Sox will have to acquire at the very least an average catcher to be real players in the American League, and ideally a starting pitcher as well. These moves make them a scary team to face in a playoff series.

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MLB Pick: Philadelphia Phillies
Cristopher Sanchez at home has been a cash cow for 2-3 years now. Both the moneyline and -1.5 have been valuable in Sanchez's career at home. The line holds higher value against the defending champion Dodgers. Numbers back Phillies ML -140 and Phillies -1.5 +145.
#mlb #mlbpicks

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2026 MLB Trade Deadline Outlook, Cleveland Guardians:
The Guardians once again find themselves exceeding expectations in their signature flashless manner. They are currently atop the AL Central at 51-46. Their offensive production is pretty evenly spread throughout the team. Catcher Austin Hedges has a .762 OPS. First baseman Kyle Manzardo will attempt to find some consistency in the second half. The rest of the infield has been quite productive. Travis Bazzana, Brayan Rocchio, and Jose Ramirez all have OPS’ in the .715 - .760 range. Angel Ramirez and Chase DeLauter have been great as well. However, veterans Stephen Kwan and Rhys Hoskins have struggled to contribute to the Guardians winning ways. Their starting rotation has been great, most notably rookie Parker Messick putting up a 2.73 ERA and 3.4 WAR in 112 innings pitched. Cleveland possesses a deep bullpen with many trustworthy arms. Considering Stephen Kwan has a .614 OPS and DH Rhys Hoskins has -0.4 WAR and the team leads the AL Central, there is a lot to be hopeful about in Cleveland.

The Guardians are well rounded and do not necessarily need to make any splash moves for drastic improvements. If Stephen Kwan can progress closer to his normal production rate, this team should be able to make the playoffs without any moves. The most likely move for Cleveland seems to be the acquisition of Reds 1st baseman Spencer Steer. The Long Beach native has a .759 OPS this season and can alleviate some pressure off the struggling Kyle Manzardo. Steer also provides versatility, as he is a below average outfielder but can still play around the field if needed. From here, Cleveland can only hope Kwan turns his season around and the rest of the team continues to be productive.