Fred Hansen

e/acc

[Fred Hansen @fredhansen_]

@phasegatejumper Safety is a concern, but Tesla is not in New York yet.

[Fred Hansen @fredhansen_]

Tesla cannot get their FSD rollout going. Even Waymo is scaling faster. And if all roads need to be validated before FSD approval by authorities, then Tesla loses its main advantage.

[Fred Hansen @fredhansen_]

@tpgoebel Tesla has less than 20 active unsupervised cars, Waymo has over a thousand.

If FSD works, even within a geofenced area, Tesla should be able to put more car out quickly. That is not happening.

[Fred Hansen @fredhansen_]

Tesla’s valuation is just too high with this slow progress, and stock price is unlikely to see any significant gain before a likely merger with SpaceX.

The old Tesla magic is gone, 4 years of disastrous leadership has consequences.

[Fred Hansen @fredhansen_]

The best Bitcoin bear case is that not even $MSTR has created a useful bitcoin product. They only find creative ways to borrow money and buy more bitcoin.

They can not sell the bitcoin without a crash in bitcoin price and $MSTR stock together.

[Fred Hansen @fredhansen_]

@SamSamSidyBJJ If you want to replace car ownership with FSD, it needs to go from your front door to the destination parking. Otherwise it will be such a hassle with shopping, kids or transporting stuff.

Unclear if FSD can solve this in the short to medium term.

[Fred Hansen @fredhansen_]

Tesla FSD risks:

The system will never figure out all the edge cases for people’s private driveway/garage and the complexity of parking in public and private spaces. This prevents a full private roll-out door to door service.

[Fred Hansen @fredhansen_]

Tesla nightmare scenario:

- China sales crash due to competition and local preferences
- EU sales crash due to continued brand damage from CEO and no lower cost model
- US sales crash due to loss of $7.500 tax credit
- FSD only works on pre-approved roads, Waymo takes the lead

[Fred Hansen @fredhansen_]

The system will only work or be allowed on pre-approved roads. This limits the roll out speed and makes Waymo and others equal competitors.

Will it be allowed on highways? High continuous monitoring risk. All have to be pre-approved

[Fred Hansen @fredhansen_]

7) Start selling AI chips for inference to other OEMs. And/or build datacenters for inference.

8) License FSD to other car companies

[Fred Hansen @fredhansen_]

Tesla recovery plan:

1) Improve brand by recurring ad campaign- focus on tech/environment/safety

2) FSD awareness campaign

3) Product unveils for updated models to highlight new features. Change naming to include year/nickname for updated product.

[Fred Hansen @fredhansen_]

4) Relaunch model S and a larger model X, to compete in premium car segment. Tesla should be able to compete with Mercedes/BMW

5) Make a new truck, as the Cybertruck is a failure.

6) Introduce new car models that consumers want.

[Fred Hansen @fredhansen_]

@wholemars The key question is if it will work outside pre-approved roads.

Like in private driveways, in parking garages and on highways.

If it cannot go from home to any destination within geofenced area, including parking. It is a serious risk to real FSD.

[Fred Hansen @fredhansen_]

Cybercab can be copied like we see all other hardware being copied. No significant value. Car cost also low part of total robotaxi cost.

Tesla fair value currently could be less than $300B. An 80% drop from current prices.

[Fred Hansen @fredhansen_]

Tesla current status:

Premium car market: Failed, S & X

Mid tier car market: In decline, competition at same level

Low tier car market: Failed to launch vehicle

Energy storage: One of many, margins will decline, competition at same level

[Fred Hansen @fredhansen_]

Conclusion:
Current business is not worth more than $150B giving it a high 20x P/E.

FSD is at risk of only working on public pre-approved roads like Waymo, giving Tesla no significant data advantage. Waymo is valued at $126B.