Fred Tang

An independent researcher | China macro & property market. Sharing serious + fun stuff.

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[Fred Tang @FredTang231964]

The Chinese yuan just broke a 3.5-year high. On-shore USD/CNY ~6.72 — strongest since Feb 2023, +3.8% YTD.

The puzzle: China–US rate gap is WIDE, yet the yuan keeps rising. The 10Y spread is inverted ~300bp (China ~1.70% vs US ~4.7%). That should sink the yuan. In 2022–23, it did: as the gap widened, USD/CNY went 6.30 → 7.30. Same gap now, opposite move.

Why? In this round of yuan appreciation, China's FX pricing power is in TRADE settlement, not rate arbitrage. A ~$1.2T/yr surplus + a falling dollar (DXY 106.8→98.3) drown the carry trade. The inverted spread squeezes hot money — but can't move real export flows or the dollar cycle.

#China #FX #RMB

[Fred Tang @FredTang231964]

@hindipatrakar If it’s only 2km, why couldn’t he run to the hospital?

[Fred Tang @FredTang231964]

@WSJ As long as the warships are in the international water, I don’t think there is a problem.

[Fred Tang @FredTang231964]

@Chinaview0022 说得很好。想在中国搞颜色革命，蚍蜉撼树，这帮香港人认知太低了。

[Fred Tang @FredTang231964]

One more: cooking for the rescue team.

[🇨🇳XuZhenqing徐祯卿 @XueJia24682]

✨🇨🇳In the disaster zone, the smoke from cooking fires is the most hopeful sign.

Chinese soldiers are preparing hot meals for rescue teams, ensuring no one goes hungry amid the crisis.

This is the warmth that keeps the rescue efforts going.

[Fred Tang @FredTang231964]

A well-organized rescue operation at the Nepal-China's Xizang border.

[pearlher @pearlher]

中国这次救援，后勤牛逼！

1、这是万年冰川，有很多古老病毒，病原检测前置、防疫消杀全部跟上。

2、这一身专业抢险救援服，是真有钱、水一冲就干净。

3、口岸核心区域救援人员吃热盒饭，而不是干粮。

4、人员轮换可持续。

这么多人在狭小区域，垃圾及时清运看不见，通讯、电力、燃油全部恢复。

[Fred Tang @FredTang231964]

@Huanusa 确实 感谢他们

[Fred Tang @FredTang231964]

The track record is that China almost always beats such forecasts.

[Bloomberg @business]

China is about a decade and a half behind in developing cutting-edge chipmaking tools, according to a top executive at Germany’s Zeiss, a key supplier in the global semiconductor industry https://t.co/n2Xbwz3REi

[Fred Tang @FredTang231964]

This is hilarious.

A Korean livestreamer messaged Taobao customer service about a missing snack. The agent's polite "亲亲" (dear) was auto-translated to Korean 뽀뽀 — "kiss."

Convinced he was being flirted with, he panicked online: "They keep saying kiss."

P.S. Taobao is the largest Chinese online shopping site.

[Fred Tang @FredTang231964]

@Suyutong 当抗议的人喊出香港独立的口号时我就知道结局怎么样了。还想联洋制华，中国在孱弱的时候都不能忍受这样的事情，现在更加不可能。你们喊出这些口号，做出这些事情后，就连大陆的一些同情者也失去了

[Fred Tang @FredTang231964]

@Izumi_Sunagawa I really think Japan should focus on the India market that is much larger than other markets combined,

[Fred Tang @FredTang231964]

@bbcchinese He is a clown, a puppet, and a traitor.

[Fred Tang @FredTang231964]

@Byron_Wan I don’t see any problem of it.

[Fred Tang @FredTang231964]

@frances_hui @washingtonpost If someone wants to separate Hong Kong from China, he/she deserves life sentence, per China law.

[Fred Tang @FredTang231964]

@KobeissiLetter Risky assets will be repriced.

[Fred Tang @FredTang231964]

Risky assets will be repriced with higher US yields and Japan yields.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Japan's 10Y Bond Yield chart is something for the history books.

This is definitely not normal.

[Fred Tang @FredTang231964]

@VOAChinese 台湾回归是中华崛起的必要条件，跟什么政治制度竞争有毛关系

[Fred Tang @FredTang231964]

From Sept 1, Guangdong raises its monthly minimum wage: Shenzhen to ¥2,700 and Guangzhou to ¥2,680 (both ~$370/mo). China's manufacturing heartland lifts the floor for low-wage workers as living costs climb.

What's the minimum wage in your country?

#China #Labor ＃Wage

[Fred Tang @FredTang231964]

@Panchenko_X You call this democracy? In China, these people will be investigated and put in prison. If this is democracy, I’d rather have authoritarian.

[Fred Tang @FredTang231964]

@3596675596com 说到底 中国没兴趣对西方主导的活动捧臭脚了 奥运会如此 其他活动也如此