ToTheMoon

Full time trader. Member of the Inner Circle with David Prince. Tattoos, traveling, guns, Bills, and Redwings are my other passions. #Billsmafia #LGRW

[kuno @kunoo]

Me managing my $180 portfolio

[Just a Dude Who Invests @DudeWhoInvests]

Investors: “Thank God the stock market is closed, I can’t lose any money today.”

Crypto investors:

[Stock PlayMaker 🌐 @stockplaymaker1]

POV: THE STOCK MARKET IS CLOSED TODAY BUT YOU OPENED YOUR PORTFOLIO 6 TIMES ALREADY

[ToTheMoon @FrozenRopes17]

Nailed it

[Watcher.Guru @WatcherGuru]

JUST IN: Ship traffic officially resumes in the Strait of Hormuz after US and Iran sign deal to end war.

[Just a Dude Who Invests @DudeWhoInvests]

The first candle we are going to all see bright and early Monday morning when the stock market opens

[Put Steve Tasker in the Hall of Fame @HOFSteveTasker]

Here is how Josh Allen ranks in his first 8 years compared to the 28 Modern Era QB’s currently in the Hall of Fame in THEIR first 8 years:

Total YPG: 272.05 (1st)
Total TD Per Game:  2.34 (1st)
Passer Rating:  94.4 (1st)
Interception %:  2.3 (1st)
Total Yards:  34823 (1st)
Rushing TDs:  79 (1st)
Rushing Yards:  4721 (1st)
Completion %:  64% (2nd)
Passing Yards:  30102 (3rd)
Passing TDs:  220 (3rd)
Win%:  .692 (3rd)

#BillsMafia

[THE SHORT BEAR @TheShortBear]

I do not see today’s Fed meeting as hawkish.

A few things stood out from the Fed meeting, despite the hawkish dot plot.

Warsh was selected to try to cut rates and be dovish. Given where yields are, starting out fully dovish and potentially exacerbating inflation prints through a de-anchoring of expectations would not have been the best course of action.

The Fed still has a mandate to keep inflation near 2%, but it will be 'revisiting how inflation is assessed'.

-> Truflation has inflation at ~1.57% YoY.

-The Fed does not compute CPI, that is the BLS, and Warsh explicitly walled off the 2% target from review: "I see no reason... to revisit that... outside the scope." He repeatedly called official inflation "an echo of history."

Furthermore, official headline CPI was 4.2% in May, the highest since 2023, but energy accounted for over 60% of the monthly gain, with gasoline up 40.5% on the Iran shock. Core ran at 2.9%. Strip out the oil shock Warsh just told you he will look through, and you are at ~1.6–2.9%.

-The composition of the dot plot was not fully hawkish. Of the 18 who submitted, ~9 saw rates higher and ~9 saw them at this level or lower. Warsh was the abstaining 19th.

-> Even the median path is roughly one hike, then easing: 3.8% YE26 ��� 3.6% YE27.

-Only one proposal was on the table: hold. A hike was never seriously discussed, with "no discussion of any other proposals." He dodged every "why didn't you tighten" question from the WSJ, FT, and Fox with curt non-answers.

-"I don't believe we have a cruel choice." He explicitly rejects the inflation-vs-jobs tradeoff and believes he can get to 2% without breaking the labor market. That is a chair who is not hunting for a reason to over-tighten.

-"strong productivity-led growth is not something we fear, but something we embrace," and he reaffirmed to CNBC that productivity is a reason rates can come down. AI as a positive supply shock = structurally disinflationary = room to cut even with an ugly headline.

-He also pre-framed the current print as a supply shock he will not react to: oil "does not have first-order consequences," and the Fed only cares about second-round effects.

The only real hawkish substance was the relentless "inflation is a choice / we will deliver price stability" language, plus his claim that policy is not very restrictive outside housing. That does imply room to hold tight, or even hike.

But he refused every chance to convert that into an actual signal. So I read it as credibility-positioning, not a tightening bias.

The comment around the 2y yield and not caring about todays or even a few days of adverse reaction was what triggered the selloff post ramp. Powell would have tried and calmed markets but the change in tone and approach to try and be hands off threw the market in a tantrum for what I otherwise see as a great approach and first meeting.

Open to feeback.

[The Inner Circle Trading Group DP David Prince @epictrades1]

$AMD new all time highs. Sure looks like $INTC is next

[Peter Andrianopoulos @peterandri]

Dylan Larkin has added another team to his list — the New York Knicks.

[ToTheMoon @FrozenRopes17]

The best qb. A better person.

[JD Vance @JDVance]

I'm seeing a lot of fake information about a potential deal to reopen the Strait and end Iran's nuclear weapons program. First, the Iranians are not receiving any cash, and no funds are being released for simply signing a deal or attending a meeting. The deal is structured to ensure that the US and its allies concerns are prioritized, and that if the Islamic Republic of Iran meets its obligations, then economic benefits will flow to them and to the entire region. This deal has the potential to remake the region and lead to lasting peace.

I've noticed a couple of bizarre things in the reporting over the last few hours. First, people who (rightly) said Donald Trump was a historic president a month ago now criticizing a deal based on unconfirmed media reports. Second, people who say you can't trust a word said by the IRGC who apparently believe anonymously sourced social media posts.

The president is going to get us a good outcome, one way or the other.

[ToTheMoon @FrozenRopes17]

@KTTECHPRIVATE perfect plan. quick 100% on 25 calls. lfg!

[ToTheMoon @FrozenRopes17]

@epictrades1 @RealSimpleAriel

[ToTheMoon @FrozenRopes17]

@spittinchiclets oh no.. now they might not make the playoffs!!!

[The ₿itcoin Therapist @TheBTCTherapist]

SpaceX IPO liquidity exiting Bitcoin right now

[ToTheMoon @FrozenRopes17]

@KTTECHPRIVATE so you are flat?

[GhettoGronk @ghetto_gronk]

Patriots fans after Mike Vrabel sacrificed his marriage to bring AJ Brown to New England

[Luc @investingluc]

Traders that are strictly technical + charts always sell too early because they don’t know what they own, nor do they care.

The number 1 thing that can completely change your investing is learning how to have conviction.

But conviction is only built through actually understanding the context + story.

Because the second a pullback happens you freak out and sell bc you have zero idea what you own or why you own it. Your understanding is so shallow.

Finance twitter has become an ai slopfest of surface level theses…but very few people actually have conviction.

Conviction =
- understanding industries/businesses
- the moving parts
- what connects to what
- valuations
- catalysts
- the story & narrative

You don’t even have to be an expert at all, but when you actually know what you own and are willing to hold for longer timeframes…dips are a good thing.

[Buffalo Bills @BuffaloBills]

Jackson and @JoshAllenQB. 🫶

After receiving a heart transplant, Jackson is here to enjoy something he’s been dreaming about—meeting the team and throwing the football around with Josh.

@makeawishwny | #BillsMafia