Q1: How do you write down a model that delivers 15% AI-driven GDP growth in 2030 like the folks at the Anthropic Institute?
A1: It's easy and you can do it in a way any well-trained econ undergrad understands: take a standard Solow model, stick in a task-based production function, calibrate in seemingly innocuous way ��️ done!
See the supplement to the essay with @alexolegimas https://t.co/60SLfKF55c
(The Anthropic model is, of course, fancier with many more bells and whistles but the basic logic – AI removes labor as a bottleneck on growth – is the same.)
Q2: Does this mean that 15% growth is a reasonable prediction?
A2: No. Just because you can write down such a model doesn't mean you should. Just because it's possible in theory, doesn't mean it will actually happen in practice !
Instead you're making a number of assumptions that are unlikely to hold: https://t.co/PWlIyLgkxe
@thsottiaux@thsottiaux Codex is amazing thank you!! I recently switched accounts across two different emails and it saved all my chats. The ChatGPT app doesn’t do the same, is there a way to migrate all the chats from one email address to another??
Me lo ricordo bene quel 5 maggio 1938.
Era una bella giornata di sole.
Ai lati di Via Caracciolo, sul lungomare, c’era un sacco di gente in attesa del suo passaggio.
Ad un tratto l’auto scoperta avanzò tra le due ali di folla e lui, il Fuhrer, si alzò in piedi.
I was born in Mariupol, Ukraine. The city is currently under attack. My 85 y.o. mother is there now. She has survived Stalin’s famine, Hitler’s occupation, Soviet economic colonisation, and is now in Putin’s war. It’s all the same to her - taking away her freedom. Support Ukraine