The stats this month with Topstepπ(THE REALITY)
4 payouts.
Expenses: $1650 AUD across evals
Payouts: $8700 AUD across multiple accounts
Net: $7050
My system involves high risk with evals. You pass some and fail some. This is a part of the system.
When funded, I risk more the first two days to try and build a buffer. From there, I tone it down to base hits for days 3 - 5. Buffer building doesn't always work. Some accounts go. This is okay.
If I get my first payout on the account, the second I aim for base hits, as I have a buffer built from previous payout cycle.
Nothing fancy, just using probability, my system and long term projection to accept the wins, losses, blown accounts and payouts.
Quick play at open. Here is the analysis π
1. Wick of a swing high or swing low I treat as a FVG. As we trade into this, I see the sweep of the lowest body as a sweep of liquidity.
2. Drop to the 1 min chart and identify LRL. I see heaps.
3. Identify an entry model or impulse away from the wick. I saw nice displacement and a CISD, so I pyramided into the position. Started with 1 mini and added in with a second.
4. First partial provided +$400 and second contract yielded roughly another $300.
5. Area = wick (FVG), Target (LRL), Reaction (CISD + Impulse)
I do think price wants to go lower. I have certain ways of mitigating stops and sometimes it leads to trades cut short or extensive runners. It all equals out :)
Quick morning scalp before heading out for the day in Thailand
+ $2000 requested from @Topstep
Lately I have been liking the first 30 mins of market open
You need to have a few "playbooks" I suppose. Some for trending markets, some for ranging markets, some for just quick scalps, some for partials and runners & for each of these you need to look for market structure that supports it, and find ways to get involved in those conditions that are repeatable.
The market either trends up, trends down, or ranges. Inside of those 3 conditions there are sub categories (e.g ranging for whole day, ranging for only Asian Session) and you will need to categorise these and then select which you want to trade.
Then from there, look for repeatable patterns for execution.
Discretion isn't about "I think this will happen, just because". It's "I have seen this similar thing happen more often than not", so based on probability you put yourself in a favourable position
Have been testing out a low W/R, high RR system on one account currently and the stats and psychology are interesting π
1. Lots of smaller loses. Probing the market with 1 mini and willing to take multiple losses in a row.
2. When market conditions show trend formation, I will add into the position, 1 at a time. This allows me to have bigger position sizes, with similar risk.
e.g start with 1 mini (risking $250)
market moves more in my favour, add in 1 mini (risking now $400
3. The low win rate system targets mental flaws immensely. I have had to catch myself and re-centre focus, especially after multiple losing trades.
4. I have had to develop the ability to stay level headed, even after losing a few trades. Trading what I see, rather than me PnL has allowed me to size into great trades, regardless of previous losses.
5. My avg winning trade is much larger than average losing trade. I am practicing holding trades for longer.
6. My time in a winner is also longer than my time in a loser. I try to cut losers quick. I can always re-enter.
Overall, this is something I am trying out, alongside the typical smaller RR and higher win rate system. I still use ART principles to trade, same concepts. I have just adjusted how I get into the trade, how much I risk and how I get out of the trade.
This shows you that any type of system 'can' work. It is a matter of how you implement it that determines success factors.
Agreed
Market conditions will change slightly across time and we need to adapt.
At the current moment, it is more of a testing sequence, seeing where results compare and how I feel trading a higher RR system compared to lower RR.
Overall, I feel a mix is great. Knowing when to let trades run, starting with small risk & the opposite, risking a little more from the get go and taking a base hit.
The market will often go through waves of different market condtions
Did the building this week, now time to ease off the gas for next week.
W/R a little lower than usual. Many re-attempts required this week.
Started small & pyramided into positions, keeping my average winner bigger than my average loser.
Have a great weekend everyone ππ
For those curious, here are my stats.
Nothing fancy. More base hits the last week, so the RR has shifted to around 1:1, and win rate bumped up slightly to around 67%
Just took a payout today, hence the drop off at the end