Raqi

We are not stuff that abides, but patterns that perpetuate themselves. - The Human Use of Human Beings

[vitalik.eth @VitalikButerin]

I don't recommend anyone scramble to move their funds to new wallets today. But we should take the risks to cryptography from AI-accelerated math seriously, and minimize our exposure to not just quantum-vulnerable cryptography, but also potentially AI-vulnerable cryptography.

The core new area of risk from this viewpoint is, unfortunately, ML-DSA / FHE / lattices.

(and it's also another reason, along with quantum, why ECDSA might fall even faster than expected, hence the "fresh address" recommendation)

So far most people have been in the mode of thinking "elliptic curves broken, hashes safe, lattices safe". But there is a good chance that the concrete security of lattices will take serious hits from the next two years of AI math.

The basic threat model is: factoring is something that naively takes 2^(n/2) time, but over decades smart people have found and optimized number field sieves, and degraded that to 2^O(n^(1/3)), which is why RSA keys and signatures need to be ~400 bytes (and not 64 bytes). What if there are skeletons in the closet like that, both for elliptic curves and lattices, that we are simply not smart enough to discover - but bots soon will be?

This is a major part of the reason why for the past year ethereum's lean roadmap has been going in the "hash-only" direction: no lattices, no ML-DSA, no Falcon, no lattice-based commitments inside ZK proofs, etc. Signatures in lean ethereum are all hash-based, either WOTS or SPHINCS-.

For signatures and proofs, we already know how to go hash-only. The bigger challenge is for *public-key encryption* - and this goes far beyond blockchains. Secure communication, anonymizing protocols, lots of things need public-key encryption.

And unfortunately there are long-standing mathematical theorems showing why public-key encryption cannot be done with hashes alone. You have to have some kind of trapdoor object that has at least one form of usable "structure" - either group theory (incl. isogenies) or lattices or code-based or potentially in the future even more newfangled and spooky things (local mixing?). But for anything that has structure, you should assume that AI will make at least some progress in breaking that structure. Here, one reasonable inference is that if you want to make something plausibly long-term secure, multiply the key sizes by 10.

To me that's a very plausible world and something not at all extreme to predict. If AI will bring us 50 years of math in 2 years, then that 50 years of math may very plausibly include a "naive factoring -> GNFS" level of improvement to our ability to break lattices. In that world, lattices will still exist, but they will have to be significantly bigger to guarantee the same level of safety.

And at those new larger sizes, hash-based constructions will beat lattice-based constructions on concrete efficiency in every use case where hash-based constructions are possible at all.

Theoretically, of course it's possible that hashes are broken too (eg. P = NP would imply that). But I think P = NP is very unlikely. And intuitively, it's much more likely that a mathematical object has exactly no exploitable structure (like hashes are intended to), than that a mathematical object has exactly ~3 forms of exploitable structure (for elliptic curves: associativity, Schoof, pairings) and not some secret fourth form of structure we have not yet discovered that greatly degrades its security (for elliptic curves, ECDLP and pairing security). Similar for LWE, SVP, RLWE and the zoo of lattice problems.

For this reason, we do not yet see any reason to worry and start padding the byte size of hashes (if we start to worry more, we would pad the round count first before doing anything to the byte size).

Concrete TLDR, my own personal views:

* Hash-based > lattice-based, in those situations where hash-based is possible at all
* For anything lattice-based, be much more paranoid on param sizes. Remember that blockchains are only a small portion of the cryptography story; this point goes far beyond blockchains and applies to eg. access to websites, secure messaging, Tor / VPNs ...
* For privacy protocols, strongly favor NOT putting encrypted notes onchain. Instead, send them offchain through some third-party mechanism.
* If it's not difficult for you, keeping your funds in addresses which have not yet been used to make a transaction is a good idea. If it's easy for you, do it. **But be careful about migrations; I personally have lost more money in botched migrations than I have lost in all hacks combined**.
* For multisig wallets, doing confirmations offchain is better than onchain, because this way the signatures of signer wallets do not get exposed to the public, so if ECDSA falls to AI much faster than expected, at least the multisig "gracefully degrades" to a 1-of-1 where the 1 is whoever was gathering the signatures - a much better place to be than "anyone can take the money"
https://t.co/oVjwZog2lL

[Raqi @G_roc09]

@TheWorld_Update Lexi limitless

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

To heir is human,
To procreate divine

[Raqi @G_roc09]

@blockchain Your mother

[Raqi @G_roc09]

@zerohedge Tesla no vroom vroom.. just brrrt

[Raqi @G_roc09]

@ZubyMusic I read that as transsetter""

[Andrew Tate @Cobratate]

Ive been thinking long and hard and its time to admit I was wrong.

I thought id be totally fine.

But that clearly isnt the case and in light of the insurmountable evidence and real world experience I am forced to change my mind.

I want to get the Covid vaccine.

[DAO Times 🛡️ @dao_times]

With @AragonProject now live on the Polygon network users can build their DAOs for less than 50 cents.

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[Decrypt @DecryptMedia]

Ethereum creator @VitalikButerin sent out the first @0xPolygon zkEVM transaction today—and included a hidden message. https://t.co/Nyqi7YIb46

[Tim Dillon @TimJDillon]

Listen folks if we don’t sacrifice lives and spend billions you will never go to the Four Seasons Syria again.

[Raqi @G_roc09]

@zerohedge How convenient for YouTube.

[Adam Cochran (adamscochran.eth) @adamscochran]

Wut.

Which crypto firm?

The crypto banks were shut down, and unfairly at that.

This bailout went to a bank that started as farming back, and the bailout facility went to all of the US large banks who refuse to bank crypto.

How the fuck do you blame this on crypto?!

[Andrew Tate @Cobratate]

"Sometimes it falls upon a generation to be great, you can be that generation.”

[Apocalypse Animated @ApocalypseAnim]

17:3 So he carried me away in the spirit into the wilderness: and I saw a woman sit upon a scarlet coloured beast, full of names of blasphemy, having seven heads and ten horns.... https://t.co/TVjIN3KZHU

[Andrew Tate @Cobratate]

I would never kill myself

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

@ShantMM 🤣

[neuro.social.self @neurosocialself]

‘I have always felt that an important function of the analyst's interpretation is the establishment of the limits of the analyst's understanding.’

‘I think I interpret mainly to let the patient know the limits of my understanding.’

D W Winnicott
1963, 1969

[Gina @FlorioGina]

Social media has fueled toxic femininity to a level we have never seen before.

[Blockworks Data @MessariCrypto]

Subscribe to the Unqualified Opinions newsletter for world-class research from the Messari analysts, straight to your inbox!

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[Raqi @G_roc09]

@GoingParabolic Possibly a donation also..