Monday, August 31, 2026, 5:44 AM: Let’s break down what’s happening atmospherically so you can understand how this tropical system is approaching Southern California by Labor Day weekend. I know many of you don’t understand what’s going on so I’m trying to explain the best way I can.
So currently are two merging 564 DM Gulf of Alaskan lows axis that I’m watching that’s going be dropping southward latitude approximately 345 miles south of Humboldt County to Santa Cruz, California by early Friday at 3 AM at the same time. There’s also going to be a 594 DM monsoonal high axis that is going to reconnect in a perfect position over northern Arizona to southern Colorado by Friday at 12 PM.
The combination of the two upper-level lows and the monsoonal high will create an unusually northward steering gradient right into Southern California for the pending tropical system this upcoming weekend.
Our tropical system starts going under the start of its intensification process by Thursday at 10 PM just north of La Paz Mexico, approximately 200 miles west of this region. The system which will be known as Marie, should become a hurricane and will continue to move on a northward trajectory. and start showing up south of San Diego by Saturday at
6 AM, at least as a low-grade tropical system at this point or tropical storm status. There will be different variations with computer solutions in the next several days from Santa Barbara to San Diego back to Los Angeles back to Orange County.
This is a very normal situation with a tropical system, especially in Southern California as we will watch in real time what actually happens with this system. Yes, these are unprecedented times ahead with a strong El Niño, but this is what is happening currently this is not fear-mongering; this is just what’s happening in our atmosphere this is not computer models anymore.
This is the real-life situation we need to pay attention to for your holiday weekend. Yes, it’s been over 87 years since we’ve had a direct coastal impact from a tropical system, but we need to really pay attention to all the logistics of the system's atmospheric development.
I will continue updating this as we go along. We always hope for the best, but we prepare for the worst. #CAwx #HurricaneSeason2026
Sunday August 30, 2026, 8:44 AM: The Latest EU1 and 6Z GFS this morning show an even clearer picture: September 5-7, 2026, a tropical system will move into Central and Southern California during Labor Day weekend.
It will be welcomed by the positioning of the upper-level low axis off Northern California, which will draw this northward trajectory and gain even more traction just 36 hours ago. The monsoonal high axis position is a perfect position working in tandem with triple agreement.
In addition, you have very warm sea surface temperature 77F - 80F off the Southern California coastline due to our strong El Nino. Everything that's been talked about this entire summer is falling into place. Not quite checkmate yet. I'm watching the next 4 days. #CAwx #HurricaneSeason2026 #ElNiño
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