Not Gambling Advice

Daily MLB/NFL Best Bets for @JustBB_Media by @peterappel23. Sponsored by @BetMGM - Code “JustBaseball” for a first bet offer up to $1500

[Peter Appel @PeterAppel23]

Tuesday MLB BEST BET 🍀

Record: -8.49 U

⚾️ | Dodgers v Phillies 6:40pm EST

The first game of this series started off with a bang; the Phillies won 10-7 with 23 combined hits.

The weather is perfect for hitting at Citizens Bank Park right now, and it seemed like any ball in the air was either finding grass or finding the seats.

Today, though, we have a matchup between Zack Wheeler and Justin Wrobleski, two pitchers with ERAs under 3.

Wheeler has been pitching at a Cy Young level since returning from injury, and Wrobleski was an All-Star.

That said, I don't think either one stops the flow of runs.

Let's start with Zack Wheeler. Taking the over when he's involved is normally a bad idea, but between @BallparkPal park factor, a 17% increase in run scoring at the Bank, and the Dodgers' history against him, this profiles as his toughest start of the season.

The Dodgers have never really had trouble with Wheeler. He's allowed three or more runs in just three of his 15 starts this season, one of those coming against the Dodgers, when he allowed four.

This current Dodgers lineup has plenty of history against him too, with 190 combined plate appearances, in which they're hitting .286 with a .350 xwOBA, a .459 xSLG, and only a 21% strikeout rate.

It's extremely rare for any lineup to have success against Wheeler, but hitters like Freeman, Muncy, Ohtani, Teoscar, and Tucker all carry xwOBAs of .350 or higher against him.

On the flip side, Wrobleski also draws a tough matchup. The Phillies have barely seen him, but they're crushing lefties at home, a top-ten offense in that split this year, and since June began, they rank fourth with a 127 wRC+ and an .837 OPS.

It's hard to ignore Wrobleski's 4.29 SIERA, well worse than his actual ERA. It's tough to sustain an ERA that low while being below average at limiting hard contact and inducing grounders, all while striking out just 18% of batters.

The Phillies' 22nd-ranked bullpen doesn't scare anyone behind Wheeler, especially when it's not fully rested.

The Dodgers' bullpen ranks ninth, but everyone has thrown at least once over the past two days except Tanner Scott, who we won't see until the ninth anyway.

Wrobleski has real blow-up potential today, and even with Wheeler on the mound, I see the Dodgers keeping pace as the game goes on.

I'm projecting closer to 10, so 9 at even money is a great price to get involved.

PICK: LAD vs PHI Over 9 (+100)
- Risk 1 U @BetMGM

Show some love if tailing 🤝

[Peter Appel @PeterAppel23]

Exactly what I thought may happen

Was never about getting injured.

He’ll be in the lineup, it was about the Dodgers resting him if anything was slightly off

[Peter Appel @PeterAppel23]

NFL Futures season is officially here

I just bet two season long props ⬇️

[Peter Appel @PeterAppel23]

Kody Clemens is my biggest edge to go yard today

Book price: +220
My price: +185

Great opportunity on @BetMGM for a no-sweat HR token

[Peter Appel @PeterAppel23]

Friday MLB BEST BET 🍀

MLB Record: -8.49 U

⚾️ | Pirates v Guardians 7pm EST

Let’s fade the number one “over” team out the gate.

The best pitching matchup on the board today takes place at Progressive Field, as Jared Jones takes the ball for the Pirates and Gavin Williams toes the rubber for the Guardians.

This should be a low-scoring game, and while the total is already low, I don't think it's low enough.

I understand why it's sitting where it is: the Pirates were the best "over" team in baseball during the first half, going 56-38-3.

Even better than the Nationals, despite all of Washington's blown saves.

That trend is likely to regress as the market adjusts, and I think we have an opportunity today, right out of the gate, with a total that's nearly a full run too high.

Jared Jones' 4.37 ERA doesn't inspire much confidence on the surface, but I fully expect better days ahead.

His 3.52 SIERA is excellent, driven by a well-above-average K-BB rate, an ability to limit hard contact, and a ground-ball rate that's climbed to 45.7%.

Before the All-Star break, he threw 10 innings, allowing just two hits and one run while posting a 14:2 strikeout-to-walk ratio. His fastball is back up to 99 mph, and he's regained feel for his secondary pitches.

When that's the case, he has the ability to pitch like an ace.

The Guardians went 45-52 to the over in the first half because their offense simply isn't very good.

Against right-handed pitching at home, they rank 21st in wRC+ (99) and 26th in slugging percentage. Jones should be able to carve through this lineup.

Behind him is a rested Pirates bullpen that isn't elite, but they have an easier-than-average matchup.

On the other side, the Pirates have been a really solid offense overall, but this is a good spot for Gavin Williams.

He's been dominant at Progressive Field, holding opponents to a .654 OPS compared to .719 on the road. His biggest weakness is hard contact, but Pittsburgh ranks 23rd in hard-hit rate against right-handed pitchers on the road and 17th overall.

Williams also generates ground balls at a 48% clip, while the Pirates rank top five in ground-ball rate.

As long as he's throwing strikes, much of the hard contact he allows should stay on the ground.

With Konnor Griffin, Oneil Cruz, and Spencer Horwitz all out, this Pirates lineup isn't nearly as intimidating.

Behind Williams is a rested, top-10 bullpen that should be able to protect any lead. I don't expect Pittsburgh to generate much offense in this matchup.

This has all the makings of a pitchers' duel where the first team to four runs wins.

I make the total 6.8, so I'd play the under down to -120.

PICK: PIT v CLE Under 7.5 (-102)
- Risk 1 U @BetMGM

Show some love if tailing 🤝

[Peter Appel @PeterAppel23]

Doesn’t get much easier 💰

American League F5 ML (+115) ✅

[Peter Appel @PeterAppel23]

Junior is going to be pissed after losing in the derby

185 wRC+ against lefties is GOOD

[Peter Appel @PeterAppel23]

I had zero plans to bet the All Star Game

Until I saw this line

I also sprinkled on an MVP

[Peter Appel @PeterAppel23]

Home Run Derby Picks 🍀

Could be the greatest derby ever or a total disaster

Let’s find out

[Peter Appel @PeterAppel23]

My favorite derby longshot

I think he clears 500 feet tonight

[Peter Appel @PeterAppel23]

2026 Home Run Derby Picks: A Model Based Approach

I simulated the derby 200,000 times, here’s what I found
https://t.co/eiGwSdzE4D

[Peter Appel @PeterAppel23]

I built a model to predict the winner of the Home Run Derby

[Peter Appel @PeterAppel23]

I still believe.

[Peter Appel @PeterAppel23]

My BEST BET for AL MVP

Hint: it’s not Yordan

[Peter Appel @PeterAppel23]

AL MVP BEST BET 🍀

Writeup coming soon.

Get the pick now (it’s free) ⬇️

[Peter Appel @PeterAppel23]

My BEST BET to go number one overall in the 2026 MLB Draft

Hint: it’s not the two favorites

[Peter Appel @PeterAppel23]

Just bet on the number 1 overall pick for the 2026 MLB Draft

Writeup coming soon

Get it now (free) ⬇️

[Peter Appel @PeterAppel23]

Fourth of July Home Run Pick 🍀

Biggest edge of the season? 💣

I'm not much of a home run bettor, as you all know, but I still project them out, and this edge is leaping off the page.

Regardless, when the rest of the market is anywhere from +450 to +525, betting on an outlier price like this is never a bad idea.

I had to sanity-check this wild projection, where I have him hitting a home run 21% of the time (+375).

Sean Keys has 16 PA in MLB, so there is not much of a sample size to go off of, but the sample we do have is insane.

His Hard-Hit rate is 72.7%. For reference, James Wood leads all qualified hitters at 60.2%.

His 75 MPH bat speed is the same as Matt Olson. In Triple A, before he got called up, he hit 21 home runs and ripped 14 doubles in 67 games.

He's only played four MLB games, and he already has a home run (oppo-taco against Freddy Peralta), which came on July 1st.

63.6% of the balls he's hit so far are in the air. He's a 6'1, 230-pound monster who can leave any ballpark.

Now for the matchup. On the surface, Logan Gilbert at T-Mobile sounds scary, but it really isn't. He's allowed 14 home runs this year, 13 of which have come at T-Mobile.

He's allowed eight home runs to lefties this year (six to righties), and all eight have come at T-Mobile.

Emerson Hancock is expected to piggyback, and of the 12 homers he's allowed, 8 have come against lefties, and half have come at T-Mobile.

Keys didn't have a problem hitting at the notorious pitcher's park in T-Mobile yesterday, going 2-4, with the highlight being a 104 MPH double. He hit the ball hard all day (MPH: 92.4, 97.2, 99.1, 103.9).

On top of it all, we have slight 5 MPH wind blowing out to right field.

There is a chance he's not even in the Blue Jays lineup, like I said, he's barely played.

I have no idea why they wouldn't start him; it's in the Jays' best interest to stack lefties, and he was the only player in the entire game yesterday with multiple hits.

It's well worth the sprinkle at @BetMGM

Toss me a like if tailing 🤝

[Peter Appel @PeterAppel23]

1 like for a 4th of July Home Run pick

Biggest edge of the season by far

The line: +900 @BetMGM
My line: +375

[Peter Appel @PeterAppel23]

Good to be back ✅

Wouldn’t be an MLB bet from me without someone trying to blow it