Garrison Moratto

Christian. Writer Distant Shores Substack. Host of @newdiplomatist. Thinking about geopolitics. Published at Pacific Forum & RealClearDefense. Views mine.

[Garrison Moratto @GarrisonMoratto]

Honored to be published alongside 5 other American and Indian authors in @PacificForum Issues & Insights - US-India Dosti: Insights from the Next Gen.

My piece is “The New Special Relationship”: A Framework for US-India Relations in the 21st Century.

The 21st century will be defined by the relationship between the United States and India. No two other powers are better positioned for a partnership that can encompass all facets of geopolitical cooperation at a truly global scale.

I hope that this piece makes a contribution to the betterment of this essential relationship by outlining why the ties between our two countries matter, and what I see as key factors/benefits, namely:

-An Economically Opportune Intersection
-Leveraging A Differentiated Application of Diplomacy
-Establishing A Multilateral Diffusion of Power
-Creating A Democratic Monopoly on Research
-Avoiding A US-China Redux

Many thanks to @Rob_York_79 and @akhil_oldsoul for the honor of being selected for this project, and congratulations to my fellow authors for their exceptional insights.

Thank you to @DavidSantoro1 for your leadership of Pacific Forum as one of the great intellectual and policy venues of the Indo-Pacific.

This is my first time being published with a think tank; thank you to my family and friends for your encouragement in the process.

[Garrison Moratto @GarrisonMoratto]

“The war has featured impressive tactical feats by the United States and Israel, such as the killing of dozens of high-ranking Iranian officials in the opening hours of the fight. The capabilities on display over Tehran—and U.S. President Donald Trump’s penchant for military risk-taking—have surely been sobering for Washington’s adversaries in Moscow and Beijing. Yet the war has had more ambiguous, sometimes damaging, strategic outcomes. It has also caused an alarming depletion of key U.S. weapons stockpiles while ripping capabilities away from other dangerous theaters.”

[Foreign Policy @ForeignPolicy]

The war in Iran has depleted the Pentagon as China’s military buildup matures.
https://t.co/x9Y6nfHTBs

[Garrison Moratto @GarrisonMoratto]

@RobinsonSpelMI @johnkonrad There’s actually more as this photo is a bit out of date, but no Pity of War…yet

[Alex Raufoglu @ralexdc]

NEW!! US and Japan vow to strengthen 'nuclear umbrella' amid rising China and Russia threats

Tokyo talks conclude with joint warning over Beijing’s 'opaque' weapons buildup and North Korea's nuclear ambitions

Joint Statement: 👇

[Garrison Moratto @GarrisonMoratto]

“CENTCOM forces struck Iranian air defense, ground control stations, and surveillance radar sites near the Strait of Hormuz with precision munitions from U.S. Air Force and Navy fighter jets.”

[U.S. Central Command @CENTCOM]

https://t.co/nmeOOVXAcD

[Garrison Moratto @GarrisonMoratto]

@markgurman The widget for Mac Virtual Display is a nice touch…

[Trey Yingst @TreyYingst]

A U.S. Army Apache helicopter went down near the Strait of Hormuz on Monday. Here's what we know.

[Garrison Moratto @GarrisonMoratto]

If you ever feel bad about your life, just take comfort in knowing that you didn’t spend over half a billion dollars of your money for no reason whatsoever…

[Rob Pyers @rpyers]

Between his run for the Democratic nomination for President of the United States and his 2026 run for California governor, Tom Steyer will have spent $557,781,638 for 0 delegates and a 3rd-place primary finish, respectively.

[Garrison Moratto @GarrisonMoratto]

I try to keep my page focused on geopolitics. But this is important. Government doesn’t determine what a Christian is. The Bible does.

And by that standard, Mormonism is a false cult. It preaches heresies about Jesus, sin, salvation…& more. https://t.co/qT6ccVUFmB

[Garrison Moratto @GarrisonMoratto]

@dcurtis Mike Rockwell saved Apple.

[Garrison Moratto @GarrisonMoratto]

@markgurman I bought an iPhone 16 Pro specifically to use the 2024 AI features, which Apple then never delivered, and now two years later, my 16 pro can’t run the new Siri…🤯

[Garrison Moratto @GarrisonMoratto]

@markgurman 2 observations:

1. If Apple did live keynotes like they used to until 2020, this debacle would’ve been avoided because they’d have been forced to admit it didn’t work.

2. AVP features prominently on the main page today. Doesn’t look like the end of the line to me…

[Amichai Stein @AmichaiStein1]

☢️🇺🇸🇫🇷🇩🇪🇺🇸🇮🇷 Although the United States sought to include explicit language in the IAEA resolution stating that Iran’s failure to meet its obligations would result in the matter being referred to the United Nations Security Council, a move that could lead to additional measures against Tehran, such a provision was ultimately omitted due to opposition from the E3 countries: Germany, France, and the United Kingdom, the European signatories to the nuclear agreement.

According to two sources familiar with the matter who spoke with The Jerusalem Post, the European countries do not, in principle, oppose referring the issue to the UN Security Council. However, they believe that “this is not the right time” to take such a step.

[Amit Segal @AmitSegal]

Here are the equations –

Hezbollah – if Israel attacks southern Lebanon, we will strike Kiryat Shmona.

Israel – if Kiryat Shmona is attacked, we will strike Beirut.

Iran – if Beirut is attacked, we will strike Israel.

Israel – if Israel is attacked, we will strike Iran.

Iran – if southern Lebanon is attacked, we will strike Israel.

The first four have already occurred; the fifth is the important one. Its purpose: to make Trump force Israel to stop destroying Hezbollah in southern Lebanon.

Hours will tell.

[Garrison Moratto @GarrisonMoratto]

Iran-Hizbullah axis remains Tehran’s last best hope for waging the fight against Israel. Between Israel’s campaign in Lebanon and the blockade in the Gulf, Iran is being backed into a corner of its own making. If it continues escalation, it will only lose quicker.

The risk for America is the perennial list: munitions stockpiles, mission creep, further delay to the Indo-Pacific pivot, and congressional rebuke against the admin.

[Alex Ward @alexbward]

What happened tonight:

- Trump told Netanyahu to back off retaliating against Iran.

- Iran came to its proxy’s defense, not the usual other way around.

- Israel and U.S. tried to separate US v Iran from Israel v Hezbollah. Now they are linked.

[Garrison Moratto @GarrisonMoratto]

“For now” was very short…
In keeping with longstanding Israeli policy, Netanyahu had hit back. The question is if this ends the tit for tat, or if the kinetic spiral is back on…

[OSINTtechnical @Osinttechnical]

Israel confirms it has carried out airstrikes on Iran, hitting multiple sites in western and central Iran.

[Garrison Moratto @GarrisonMoratto]

Trump’s Anaconda Plan for Iran.

The strategic bet has been made that the slow choke of the blockade combined with intensive negotiation efforts will pin down Iran better than a return to kinetic means.

This is America’s gamble.

For now Netanyahu has agreed.

[Garrison Moratto @GarrisonMoratto]

Furthermore, there’s the implicit risk that restraining Netanyahu makes Israel the “free” Iranian target zone compared to direct retaliation. This could actually serve as a motivator for Tehran to continue its attacks as the “acceptable” form of counter in any future negotiations

[Garrison Moratto @GarrisonMoratto]

This is an enormous ask. The strategic appeal is real: allow the blockade to strangle the regime in Tehran and avoid further kinetic spiral. But four waves (and counting) putting Israeli lives under fire is a sure fire way to split the defensive, national interests of Israel-US.

[Jake Sherman @JakeSherman]

Iran launched four waves of strikes against Israel. Trump is calling Netanyahu to tell him to not respond.

[Garrison Moratto @GarrisonMoratto]

And then there’s wrinkle of the perception of a double standard in responses:

https://t.co/LjzRiQBXPE

[Richard Goldberg @rich_goldberg]

Notably, when Iran attacks U.S. forces, CENTCOM has responded immediately with strikes on Iran. While still maintaining the blockade and urging a deal. Why would we apply a different standard for allies with similar capability and will?

[Garrison Moratto @GarrisonMoratto]

@therealBehnamBT Yes and no. The blockade is the backstop. If it holds America has time on its side. But Iran hitting Israel will prompt action from Netanyahu sooner or later.