Market Update: The Great AI Pivot
The market is doing what it always does: shooting first and asking questions later. Rapid-fire AI developments are forcing a major reality check, and capital is rotating aggressively.
Here is what is driving the current tape:
1. The AI Squeeze on Software
Investors are bracing for two headwinds that compress software multiples:
Stalling Top-Line Growth: ARR is under threat as customers wait to see how the AI landscape settles.
Margin Compression: Lower switching costs and brewing price wars are eating into historical profitability.
There will be casualties. The companies that prove they are immune to these pitfalls will rise to the top, but finding them requires patience. That waiting game is frustratingโso the best move is to focus on what is currently working and AI-proof your portfolio.
2. Follow the Money:
Physical Infrastructure Capital is flowing out of speculative software and straight into the physical backbone powering the AI revolution:
Electronic Components & Chips: LITE, COHR, MOD, KEYS, GLW, VRT, AXTI.
Power Solutions: BE, CAT, GEV.
Infrastructure Builders: PWR, MTZ.
Raw Commodities: Copper, Uranium, Steelโthe essential materials for buildouts and grid modernization.
3. Defensives and Efficiency Plays
Beyond the physical AI buildout, two other trends stand out:
The Flight to Safety: Cautious capital is hiding out in Pharma, Consumer Staples, Utilities, and REITs. These are hiding spots, not homes. When risk appetite returns, this money moves fast.
Industrial Efficiency: Industrials and Aerospace remain top-performing groups. They are not trying to sell AIโthey are using it to drive massive internal efficiencies and cut costs.
The Bottom Line
This is a stock-picker's market disguised as chaos. The money is movingโyour job is to follow it, not fight it.
(yes, I had AI help me format this)
$SNDK Hasn't dipped under the 8ema all year, including today. kick save and a beaut. wouldn't be upset if it tested that 200 hour down at 570 before moving on higher, would just kill my weeklys but the big $$ still in the Junes
$SPY Id expect here to hold, if any level does. the 10/10 open was a big level and its coming back into play here. Just quick snipes here, not worth mentioning
$SPY Id expect here to hold, if any level does. the 10/10 open was a big level and its coming back into play here. Just quick snipes here, not worth mentioning
Market Update: The Great AI Pivot
The market is doing what it always does: shooting first and asking questions later. Rapid-fire AI developments are forcing a major reality check, and capital is rotating aggressively.
Here is what is driving the current tape:
1. The AI Squeeze on Software
Investors are bracing for two headwinds that compress software multiples:
Stalling Top-Line Growth: ARR is under threat as customers wait to see how the AI landscape settles.
Margin Compression: Lower switching costs and brewing price wars are eating into historical profitability.
There will be casualties. The companies that prove they are immune to these pitfalls will rise to the top, but finding them requires patience. That waiting game is frustratingโso the best move is to focus on what is currently working and AI-proof your portfolio.
2. Follow the Money:
Physical Infrastructure Capital is flowing out of speculative software and straight into the physical backbone powering the AI revolution:
Electronic Components & Chips: LITE, COHR, MOD, KEYS, GLW, VRT, AXTI.
Power Solutions: BE, CAT, GEV.
Infrastructure Builders: PWR, MTZ.
Raw Commodities: Copper, Uranium, Steelโthe essential materials for buildouts and grid modernization.
3. Defensives and Efficiency Plays
Beyond the physical AI buildout, two other trends stand out:
The Flight to Safety: Cautious capital is hiding out in Pharma, Consumer Staples, Utilities, and REITs. These are hiding spots, not homes. When risk appetite returns, this money moves fast.
Industrial Efficiency: Industrials and Aerospace remain top-performing groups. They are not trying to sell AIโthey are using it to drive massive internal efficiencies and cut costs.
The Bottom Line
This is a stock-picker's market disguised as chaos. The money is movingโyour job is to follow it, not fight it.
(yes, I had AI help me format this)
$BTC nothing to see here, just down 30% from highs a few weeks ago. 80k on deck and then we can really test all these diamond hands when we get back to $65000. we've all made fortunes from the magic space coin but its over now. would love to be wrong