Giulio Gottardo

Phd candidate @OxfordEconDept - empirical IO | Pnrr Lab @sdabocconi | @LSEEcon & @scuolasantanna alumnus | @thinktankagenda & Orizzonte Italia member | e/acc

[Giovanni Cattani @giovannicatt3]

https://t.co/21queFKajn

[Marc Andreessen 🇺🇸 @pmarca]

This is particularly trippy chartcrime. The breakpoint was exactly when the COVID stimmy bubble popped and the Fed hiked interest rates to the moon. 🫣

[Jesús Fernández-Villaverde @JesusFerna7026]

I’m sharing my slide deck on the demographic future of humanity,

🔗 Slides: https://t.co/geZQFXwN8h

prepared for the keynote address I will give tomorrow to the 7th EBRD and CEPR Research Symposium on “The Economics of Demographic Change”:

🔗 Symposium: https://t.co/L9Hn1fKA8A

Here are a few key ideas I’ll be discussing tomorrow, some of which even economists tracking population trends may not fully appreciate:

1️⃣ Fertility is falling everywhere: rich and poor countries alike, booming and stagnating economies, secular and religious societies. The decline is happening far faster than anyone anticipated, even me, ten years ago!

2️⃣ For example, Colombia’s fertility rate is 1.06, Iran’s is 1.44, and Turkey’s is 1.48, all of which are below the U.S.

3️⃣ The decline accelerated around 2014, well before the COVID pandemic.

4️⃣ As a result, humanity’s fertility is likely already below the replacement rate.

5️⃣ Many assume the replacement rate is 2.1 children per woman. That’s true for rich, advanced economies. But not for emerging economies, where selective abortion and higher young female mortality push the replacement rate higher. Thus, for humanity, the replacement rate is closer to 2.2.

6️⃣ The 2024 UN World Population Prospects are riddled with data and forecasts that, frankly, make little sense to my coauthor Patrick Norrick (at @AEI) and me.

7️⃣ Most of the differences in economic growth among advanced economies over the past 35 years can be attributed to demographic factors. Once adjusted for this, Japan’s economic performance is roughly on par with the U.S. (See my paper with Gustavo Ventura, @King_ofSweden, and Wen Yao, The Wealth of Working Nations):

🔗https://t.co/lm2iigVk7E

There are many other ideas (I could talk about this for hours!), but here’s the punchline: the world’s fertility crisis is worse than you thought, even after considering you already thought it was bad.

[BuccoCapital Bloke @buccocapital]

My old man, this morning via text:

“Trump trying to get the 10 year down by crashing the economy is like burning down your house to cook a steak”

[Luis Garicano 🇪🇺🇺🇦 @lugaricano]

Europe had an effective tool for climate action: the Emissions Trading System (ETS). Instead of expanding this market-based solution, we've built a byzantine regulatory framework that goes far beyond emissions reduction.
THREAD on my post today on the "Compliance Doom Loop"
1/10

[Crémieux @cremieuxrecueil]

"What happened in 1971?"

Nothing, that's just a common year people choose to mismeasure productivity and pay series from🧵

[Focus Economia - Radio24 @FocusEconomia]

Dopo che Mario Draghi nel suo rapporto ha invitato i Paesi membri della Ue a un maggior coordinamento, durante Focus Economia anche @fpagani, docente a @sciencespo di Parigi, ha sottolineato l'esigenza di avere "più Europa". Ascolta la puntata: https://t.co/urHkOMhiHu

[Kostadin Ristovski @k_ristovski]

This has to go down in history as the best case of "Stupidity of the crowd" - Three years later:

[Rafe Meager (they/them) @economeager]

econometrics is the most meaningful thing you can do with your life and everything else is just cope

[Matt Parkhurst @mprkhrst]

> independently discover a Zeno's paradox at age 3
> MIT at 17, grad level math in 1st year
> graduate in 3 years
> drive motor scooters from Boston to Bogotá with the boys
> start a company in Colombia
> start code breaking with the IDA for money
> solve minimal varieties in riemannian manifolds
> speak out against Vietnam War, get fired from IDA
> take over math dept. at Stonybrook, make it a top-ranked program globally
> develop Churn-Simons theory, accidentally contribute more to physics than most physicists
> get bored with math, start modeling financial markets
> return 60% for 4 decades straight
> establish one of the most effective philanthropic organizations of all time
> chain smoke cigarettes the entire time

RIP Jim 🫡

[Shengwu Li @ShengwuLi]

As a behavioral economist, I'm especially irked by the "neoclassical econ has false assumptions" crowd. Even though I (obviously) think that the classical model has important limitations.

I feel about them how a Roman reformer would have felt about the vandals.

[Giulio Gottardo @GiulioGottardo]

@saracanduzzi I do the same, but it may be the "Italian hierarchical mindset"

[Giulio Gottardo @GiulioGottardo]

Trovate l'articolo qui: https://t.co/Yblk1mQahJ

[Giulio Gottardo @GiulioGottardo]

Proposte sulla "fuga dei cervelli" con @Ema_Errichiello e Alice Politi per @thinktankagenda.

L'Italia è ancora una meta d'immigrazione. Ma il numero di giovani italiani spesso altamente qualificati che lascia il paese è quadruplicato (+330%!) in vent'anni. (1/9)

[Emanuele Errichiello @Ema_Errichiello]

Nell'ultimo articolo del Magazine Agenda di @Treccani io, @GiulioGottardo ed Alice Politi cerchiamo di fare il punto sul tema rientro "dei cervelli", proponendo misure per agevolare il rientro ed aumentare l'attrattività del nostro Paese per gli expat.

@thinktankagenda

[Giulio Gottardo @GiulioGottardo]

Anticipo due battute che verranno sicuramente in mente:
- Sì, expat = emigrati;
- Sì, sono un emigrato che propone cose per la propria categoria;
- Sì, darsi da soli dei "cervelli" in fuga è ridicolo. (9/9)