Gary Glover

Strong investment views from an Investment Adviser, Trader and Financial Commentator with 19 years experience in the equities markets. DYOR

[Gary Glover @GloverGary]

@leadlagreport Few ETF investors have ever seen a real bear market. Most think they will mirror an index??

[Gary Glover @GloverGary]

@richreduk R/S and VCP across the sector - NXT, HMC & DGT . HMC triggered yest - took a position, likely NXT and DGT trigger today.

[Gary Glover @GloverGary]

Some of the best names like Coca Cola and McDonalds have had multiple 70% corrections historically. Took some time to recover and build again too.

[The Wealth Hustle @richreduk]

$CSL YOU CANT SAY YOU WERE NOT WARNED

Looks like it forgot to stop at a 50% retracement and heading for 80%.

If you hold this stock now. You are an idiot. You deserve your losses.

Read a few books before allocating capital. I dont care what the company is or how good you think it is, they all do this.

[Gary Glover @GloverGary]

@bowtiedstocks https://t.co/JF7bvWKHDA

[Gary Glover @GloverGary]

ASX CHESS Holdings statements and notifications - you can opt in now to receive electronically rather than in the mail. Finally!!
Don't get me wrong - this is great news for traders and investors and far more environment friendly. But why has it taken this long?

[Gary Glover @GloverGary]

Totally agree Nick. Look at Consumer Stapes vs Info Tech - basically trading on same P/E which has only occurred 3 times in the last 7 years. Covid low, 2022 low and Tariff low. The strongest business more than likely to get stronger as only they can afford to spend big $ on AI.

[Nick Fabrio @longhorncapital]

I haven't read the @Citrini7 piece (and I won't) but judging from the reaction, this is close to the low imo. It pretty much pitches the peak doomsday scenario for software - it couldn't get much worse in your wildest bearish wet dreams. I think it is somewhat analagous to the COVID border closures in 2020 which marked the absolute bottom (the world was ending), that piece established the max fear scenario in everyone's heads.

My personal view is I got NFI what will happen, but since we are pissing in the wind, I feel the incumbents are going to win. They already have the distribution and the clients - which is the actual difficult part. Their existing devs are just going to leverage AI to build better products, quicker and cheaper.

No one is going to "vibe code" some app and disrupt an entrenched incumbent. Even if they get close, the incumbent will copy the feature in 5 mins and roll it out to their massive user base (or just buy the guy vibe coding in his basement out).

Everyone is acting like existing tech companies are completely braindead and won't just adapt.

Pretty important to remember, people have short memories and pavlov's dog fund manager is likely to buy the dip because that has always worked before.. the bounce could be large esp in the cheaper SaaS names!

[Gary Glover @GloverGary]

Totally agree Ron. 3D printing was going to kill manufacturing too and how did that work out?

[Ron Shamgar @RonShamgar]

Never forget 👇👇

[Gary Glover @GloverGary]

It's not easy being a trader in this current market, your portfolio each day = down 1.1%, up 1.3%, down 1.4%. You need a strong stomach to trade these current markets. Unfortunately I do. We need to remind our selves - cash is a position.

[Gary Glover @GloverGary]

I wouldn't say no one. There was at least one more calling similar. 😉 Oil to Gold ratio well and truly turned the other way now.

[The Wealth Hustle @richreduk]

When I was calling for a bottom for #oil in December and started my accumulation. Nobody wanted to listen. Just like I told everyone about #silver & #platinum on here before they exploded. Nobody wanted to know. I give my friends the heads up, with the usual spiel "not financial advice". And now i have these friends coming to me "shall i buy some silver". It makes me want to bang my head on the brick wall. These kind of stories rinse and repeat in markets. The phycology of it is fascinating. Human kind will always remain the same.

On oil itself i took some profits early off the bottom after the initial rally and re added with some serious size before this recent move. I took some profits again before the recent metals purge and only added a small amount back in when the market spat the dummy.

We are overbought, last night hit a liquidity pocket and are now probably due some kind a corrective phase, downwards or side ways I aren't sure. I want to try and hold a portion with the world the way it is, i could wake up 1 morning with a 10% gap up.

Don't ask me for price targets. I don't have one. But i do know that from 2020 after the huge spike it looks to me like we only corrected that major move & the sideways correction in time and price tells me the trail of liquidity is above. $oil $CL1!

[Gary Glover @GloverGary]

Getting a trade on which moves initially in the right direction & then stops you out at breakeven after you adjust your stop is my favorite kind of losing trade. This can represent one third of my trades in some years. How you trade the other two thirds matters the most.

[The Wealth Hustle @richreduk]

That was hell of a liquidity event last night. I immediately went short on a few things, made a decent amount and set my stops at entry only to be wiped out for no gain no loss. While some my find this frustrating. To be good in this game you must take it in your stride. Understand what the market is telling you.

The market is literally screaming I DONT WANT TO GO LOWER.

Would I do the same thing again? Absolutely, because I had no idea what was happening. Did the US just bomb Iran? Did the king of England take a dump? Turns out it wasn't anything apart from your standard price manipulation from the big players & their algos.

Remember - price moves from inefficiencies to liquidity in the market day in, day out. Last night on the menu was stop losses. If you got tagged, sorry, I aren't surprised it was a hell of a move. Maybe a canary in the coal mine for days ahead. Nearly all moves retraced 50 - 70% of the original price action which tell me things want to keep moving on higher (apart from $BTC 🤣).

After events like this don't be surprised to see the market move aggressively in coming days. The market doesn't like you to make money, now you've been stopped out and the big players have eaten you they want to move swiftly so you don't have a chance to get back in. Dip your toe in quickly but gently.

One final thought. Some new traders will have woken up today thinking, why did I set a stop loss? Price just came back like nothing has really happened? Never do this. One day you will have you head cut off and served on a plate and it'll be the big instos feasting on it.

Happy Trading

[Gary Glover @GloverGary]

Relative Strength and Group Strength very important in current market. Water stocks are currently firing. CXL, VYS and SDV all running hot.

[Gary Glover @GloverGary]

@richreduk A lot of similarities to the 60 year cycle also which chopped around untill early Feb before the bear kicked into gear. With vals high - we could be in for a period of chop fest. Hopefully not.

[Gary Glover @GloverGary]

@OptiontradinIQ Can't see any reason to be long here or even start selling out of money puts - quite the opposite - could accelerate lower here potentially?? Those downward consolidations can be mid point in the decline - be very careful.

[Gary Glover @GloverGary]

$WES - Everywhere you look - seeing all the leaders breaking below accelerating trendlines. "Blow Off Tops" History says don't rush in.

[Gary Glover @GloverGary]

The market always gives you clues. While many in the media were getting excited yesterday about a recovery in growth stocks ie Nvidia - Aussie growth was fairly tepid yesterday on very light trading volumes. That's not how most lows come in. Lower levels more likely first.

[Gary Glover @GloverGary]

All US indices closed below the 50 day moving average last night. In a momentum based market this is not a great sign normally. Caution definitely required with trying to buy this dip too early. Clear signs of a switch from growth to defensive names over the last fortnight.

[Gary Glover @GloverGary]

@richreduk Breaking the 50d MA is never a great sign for any momentum share.

[Gary Glover @GloverGary]

$APE - Another "Blow off top" or Vertical trend breaking the last accelerating trendline. Not a great sign normally.

[Gary Glover @GloverGary]

@JohnWickPencil Thanks for the nice comments - Hope this stops you and others from buying these too early as we all should know how far these normally fall after this type of technical set up. 50/80 rule minimum.

[Gary Glover @GloverGary]

An overshoot is how these things often end.

[The Great Martis @great_martis]

NVIDIA

Reenters the JAWS OF DEATH.

I'll keep this simple, the market better react positive to the up-coming earnings report, otherwise it's game over.

Hope this helps.