Govind Pimpale

AI policy at @joinFAI, previously RL envs at @hud_evals

[Govind Pimpale @GovindPimpale]

Link: https://t.co/8pXGg3UEwu

[Govind Pimpale @GovindPimpale]

For 70 years, nuclear peace has rested on the fact that it's too expensive to build the infrastructure to launch a first strike. In my new piece in @ai_frontiers_, I discuss how AI could change that.

[Govind Pimpale @GovindPimpale]

I've written a fairly long (80 page!) report about this. I'd love to hear your feedback on it. I intend to write more about this topic in the future: https://t.co/4QUvrhF8wI (4/5)

[Govind Pimpale @GovindPimpale]

Palantir is right that the age of nuclear deterrence may be ending soon. I've written a report explaining how nuclear first strikes become feasible if AI can dramatically cheapen large space infrastructure and accelerate military R&D. Let me explain: (1/5)

[Palantir @PalantirTech]

Because we get asked a lot.

The Technological Republic, in brief.

1. Silicon Valley owes a moral debt to the country that made its rise possible. The engineering elite of Silicon Valley has an affirmative obligation to participate in the defense of the nation.

2. We must rebel against the tyranny of the apps. Is the iPhone our greatest creative if not crowning achievement as a civilization? The object has changed our lives, but it may also now be limiting and constraining our sense of the possible.

3. Free email is not enough. The decadence of a culture or civilization, and indeed its ruling class, will be forgiven only if that culture is capable of delivering economic growth and security for the public.

4. The limits of soft power, of soaring rhetoric alone, have been exposed. The ability of free and democratic societies to prevail requires something more than moral appeal. It requires hard power, and hard power in this century will be built on software.

5. The question is not whether A.I. weapons will be built; it is who will build them and for what purpose. Our adversaries will not pause to indulge in theatrical debates about the merits of developing technologies with critical military and national security applications. They will proceed.

6. National service should be a universal duty. We should, as a society, seriously consider moving away from an all-volunteer force and only fight the next war if everyone shares in the risk and the cost.

7. If a U.S. Marine asks for a better rifle, we should build it; and the same goes for software. We should as a country be capable of continuing a debate about the appropriateness of military action abroad while remaining unflinching in our commitment to those we have asked to step into harm’s way.

8. Public servants need not be our priests. Any business that compensated its employees in the way that the federal government compensates public servants would struggle to survive.

9. We should show far more grace towards those who have subjected themselves to public life. The eradication of any space for forgiveness—a jettisoning of any tolerance for the complexities and contradictions of the human psyche—may leave us with a cast of characters at the helm we will grow to regret.

10. The psychologization of modern politics is leading us astray. Those who look to the political arena to nourish their soul and sense of self, who rely too heavily on their internal life finding expression in people they may never meet, will be left disappointed.

11. Our society has grown too eager to hasten, and is often gleeful at, the demise of its enemies. The vanquishing of an opponent is a moment to pause, not rejoice.

12. The atomic age is ending. One age of deterrence, the atomic age, is ending, and a new era of deterrence built on A.I. is set to begin.

13. No other country in the history of the world has advanced progressive values more than this one. The United States is far from perfect. But it is easy to forget how much more opportunity exists in this country for those who are not hereditary elites than in any other nation on the planet.

14. American power has made possible an extraordinarily long peace. Too many have forgotten or perhaps take for granted that nearly a century of some version of peace has prevailed in the world without a great power military conflict. At least three generations — billions of people and their children and now grandchildren — have never known a world war.

15. The postwar neutering of Germany and Japan must be undone. The defanging of Germany was an overcorrection for which Europe is now paying a heavy price. A similar and highly theatrical commitment to Japanese pacifism will, if maintained, also threaten to shift the balance of power in Asia.

16. We should applaud those who attempt to build where the market has failed to act. The culture almost snickers at Musk’s interest in grand narrative, as if billionaires ought to simply stay in their lane of enriching themselves . . . . Any curiosity or genuine interest in the value of what he has created is essentially dismissed, or perhaps lurks from beneath a thinly veiled scorn.

17. Silicon Valley must play a role in addressing violent crime. Many politicians across the United States have essentially shrugged when it comes to violent crime, abandoning any serious efforts to address the problem or take on any risk with their constituencies or donors in coming up with solutions and experiments in what should be a desperate bid to save lives.

18. The ruthless exposure of the private lives of public figures drives far too much talent away from government service. The public arena—and the shallow and petty assaults against those who dare to do something other than enrich themselves—has become so unforgiving that the republic is left with a significant roster of ineffectual, empty vessels whose ambition one would forgive if there were any genuine belief structure lurking within.

19. The caution in public life that we unwittingly encourage is corrosive. Those who say nothing wrong often say nothing much at all.

20. The pervasive intolerance of religious belief in certain circles must be resisted. The elite’s intolerance of religious belief is perhaps one of the most telling signs that its political project constitutes a less open intellectual movement than many within it would claim.

21. Some cultures have produced vital advances; others remain dysfunctional and regressive. All cultures are now equal. Criticism and value judgments are forbidden. Yet this new dogma glosses over the fact that certain cultures and indeed subcultures . . . have produced wonders. Others have proven middling, and worse, regressive and harmful.

22. We must resist the shallow temptation of a vacant and hollow pluralism. We, in America and more broadly the West, have for the past half century resisted defining national cultures in the name of inclusivity. But inclusion into what?

Excerpts from the #1 New York Times Bestseller The Technological Republic: Hard Power, Soft Belief, and the Future of the West, by Alexander C. Karp & Nicholas W. Zamiska

https://t.co/8igjazz1On

[Govind Pimpale @GovindPimpale]

Orbital bombardment can evade launch on warning to strike silos before launch-on-warning. Submarines and mobile missile launchers are both becoming vulnerable to detection by various space based constellations. Missile defense can get good enough to stop missed nukes. (3/5)

[Govind Pimpale @GovindPimpale]

@dnspies SWE bench Verified caps out at 100%, so we need to use a sigmoid (but for something like METR's time horizon, I'd use an exponential)

[Govind Pimpale @GovindPimpale]

I want to note that my prediction on what the frontier SWE-Bench Verified score would be in April 2026 was pretty spot on. It used only data from early Jan 2025 and earlier. I think the main takeaway is that straight lines on log graphs really work.

[Govind Pimpale @GovindPimpale]

@Shark_Academia Yep, all 93 million of them.

[Govind Pimpale @GovindPimpale]

Dario Amodei (Anthropic CEO) says AI will be like "a country of geniuses in a datacenter" by 2026-2030.

But how many "geniuses" are already in the datacenter?

And will there ever be a time when the number of "geniuses" exceeds the total human population?

I did the math. 🧵

[Govind Pimpale @GovindPimpale]

Full analysis with methodology: https://t.co/VLfvJAIHmU

[Govind Pimpale @GovindPimpale]

Here's what the trajectory looks like:

2026: 93M (1.1% of humans)
2027: 438M (5.2%)
2028: 2.15B (25.5%)
2029: 11.3B (133%)

Its growth rate would be 100x faster than Niger, the world's fastest-growing country.

[Jay @jayendra_ram]

Since everyone is talking about RL Environments and GRPO now but no one knows how it works we thought it would be cool to make an explainer video + code you can run:

This is an example of using GRPO to train Qwen 2.5 to play 2048 (code in thread) 🧵:

[Govind Pimpale @GovindPimpale]

Derek Parfait