The Ray Kurzweil Case Study Applied to Bitcoin: Why Bitcoin Looks Dead Before It Rerates
Ray Kurzweil's 2009 prediction scorecard:
127 / 147 correct or essentially correct = 86%
How did he do it?
Humans think linearly inside nonlinear systems.
Not “technology gets better.”
Something much deeper:
Humans underestimate systems that compound.
A plain exponential becomes straight on semi-log.
Kurzweil’s accelerating returns bend above that line.
$BTC is not a plain exponential.
It is a power law:
Price ≈ A × age^b
So Bitcoin belongs on log-log.
Not semi-log.
Using $BTC’s fitted exponent:
b ≈ 5.67
Trend rate ≈ b / age.
Today:
~32.6% instantaneous trend rate
1-year trend gain:
~37%
Ten years out:
~20.7% instantaneous trend rate
So as shown by [Trend rate ≈ 5.67 / age ]
$BTC’s percentage growth rate compresses with time.
But:
The dollar value of the network keeps scaling.
That is monetary maturation.
Kurzweil explains why humans underestimate nonlinear technology.
$BTC explains why humans underestimate nonlinear monetization.
$BTC looks dead before it rerates because linear brains cannot price logarithmic scale.
It is amazing, and disheartening, to realize how one man (Trump) can have such a devastating negative economic impact upon the entire population of the World.
Thank you Mr. POTUS for successfully making the United States (along with Israel) one of the two most hated countries on the planet.
Your support of the genocide in GAZA and your unprovoked war of aggression against Iran have secured your legacy as the most unpopular President of the US in the history of the country. Difficult to do since there have been some terrible Presidents in the past. You have done it however. Congratulations!