Geoffrey Fouvry

Capital Markets
Analysis organized & presented in big-data & augmented web.
Patent US 11,327,775 B2
ex hedgie. LaDucTrading contributor
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[Geoffrey Fouvry @GraphCall]

1/20 PROVING THAT BITCOIN IS A LIQUIDITY DECOY WITH SIMPLE DIFF EQUATIONS.
“HODL” on to your socks. (a bit technical)

ALSO The Fed is semi-lying, in fact, about “We would lose control of interest rates without IOR.”

https://t.co/aaTXKHhkD4

[Geoffrey Fouvry @GraphCall]

@ThetaBurnVictim Everything is probabilistic, the question is the probability. And the discipline to stick to the plan should the event occur even if quite unlikely.

[Geoffrey Fouvry @GraphCall]

#Silver
Actually some people are happy buyers on Silver and after 1 short at 115 early this year and 2 puke-bounce chasing on the long side, maybe, maybe this time some real long position since pfff... quarters! 😋

Correction in the 1972-1974 prior external drain of FX as reserves was 44%.

Then trapped for 18 months. We are likely to see a trap period until the Fed is forced to capitulate if no austerity comes.

If austerity comes? Get out or reverse.

[Eric Yeung 👍🚀🌕 @KingKong9888]

Even Frodo Baggins wants to sell his #Gold after this week…🙃🙈

[Geoffrey Fouvry @GraphCall]

@NobodyJones72 @ekwufinance Nope 48% is renewables in Europe 25% nuke. Nat gas is getting killed in the mix too.
Renewables will climb to 60% by 2030 and higher after.
War it is.
Enjoy.

[Geoffrey Fouvry @GraphCall]

@FredrikL7 Yes, Besides, the demand for Silver is going to be absolutely bonkers for Solar, because Tandem perovskite makes the cost of Silver a lesser problem due to efficiency increases and lower Silver intensity.
(a full Jevons paradox)

[Geoffrey Fouvry @GraphCall]

@jwhock78 💯

[Geoffrey Fouvry @GraphCall]

Yummy 😋

[Barchart @Barchart]

BREAKING 🚨: China

Chinese Stock Market on track for 11 straight red weeks, its longest losing streak in history 📉 📉

[Geoffrey Fouvry @GraphCall]

@peruvian_bull There are plenty of stagflationary recession in history it comes with large primary deficits.

[Geoffrey Fouvry @GraphCall]

@SamanthaLaDuc @gamesblazer06 Yup, started last with retail lending then cracks in wildcat banks, then goes into CCC and then goes into HG and ends in IG. And then the dispertion of credit starts to hit the lomocotive of the economy. We are in the late part of this credit cycle.

[Geoffrey Fouvry @GraphCall]

The problem of value investing dying is actually not that new.

In large money printing episodes to cover Gov insolvencies you have that situation. It happened with the French and UK insolvency in 1720 with the Mississippi bubble and South Sea Bubble.

Shortly after the Napoleonic wars the UK funded the fictitious country of Poyas, during the Civil war, a venture to dry the Red Sea and find the Gold of the Hebrews who walked at the bottom of the Sea with Moses miracle got funding.

I have the archives. We have had plenty of DogWithHat, crypto-craps,BTC what have you. The currency falls versus the precious metals each time.

We also got a fililng for a large bonus to be paid to Elon Musk "when" there will be a 1 million people city colony on Mars; sounds a bit poyais-esque/ Mississippi Company-esque to me, but what do I know about capital markets history ? 😌

RINSE / REPEAT

[Fireside Tapes @firesidetapes]

David Einhorn explains why the value investing industry has been defeated, and walks through how it leaves Greenlight as a "dinosaur"

“The market structure has changed, and there has been what I consider to be a broken market, or the value investing industry, I think, is defeated, so to speak."

"It used to be that most money was invested by these long-only investors, these big mutual funds and stuff like that."

"And they had money coming in every day, and they were getting nice fees on all of that money, and they had large research teams, and they would sit around following all of the companies with teams of analysts and they would say this company we think is undervalued by 30% and it might be a growth stock or a value stock or Magnificent Seven or otherwise, but they would say I think this is undervalued by 30% and if I buy it and I hold it I’ll make the S&P plus 30."

"Now as we’ve moved to passive they’ve lost their customers and the remaining customers are paying them lower fees and they have reduced their research staffs and they don’t have new money coming in to make new investments in any case."

"But the market is now dominated by passives, index funds, which buy what everyone else has already decided things are worth, or algorithms, which are basically trying to figure out what is everybody else doing and how do I front run that, or retail, which is buying things because they think it’s cool or they think it’s going up."

"And so most of the investing these days is no longer done by people who are buying something because they think it’s worth more. They have opinions about price, like what is the price going to be tomorrow. And so the result is most trading that is going on right now has nothing to do with value."

"So it leaves us sort of as a dinosaur. We’re one of the remaining few people left who are looking at things on a traditional basis.”

[Geoffrey Fouvry @GraphCall]

Actually SpaceX advertized a large bonus for Elon Musk "when" there will be a 1 million people city on Mars and got a massive valuation with that S-1 filing crap. That reminds a bit of Poyais quite frankly.

[Geoffrey Fouvry @GraphCall]

@d_savickij No rush.

[Geoffrey Fouvry @GraphCall]

@KurtisKivi I have been doing more insult to injury, I have been shorting the small space stocks in the ramp just in June. You can aks anoyone at LaDuc trading, joing us it was very profitable.

[Geoffrey Fouvry @GraphCall]

I will explain why I am short $TSLA

Wrong pricing (too expensive vehicles for mass market)

Wrong decision not to put the bi-directional inverters inside the car.

This makes the wallbox TOO EXPENSIVE, and the dircharging / recharging outside the garage problematic.

Not equipped yet on wholesale buy cheap - sell high for people to monetize thier battery.

Not impressive battery line-up in solid state
(compared to BasqueVolt -- BTW those batteries are inside the drones in Ukraine, that's why those things fly such long distances.

They don't have the rBnB system of charging.  Some EV car makers allow any shop, restaurant or venue to install a plug so that people can charge there and the revenues (when discharging) or costs (when charging) to be split seamlessly between the venue / shop / retailer and the car owner.

rBnB millions of spots for charging are available, and DOES NOT require a garage (very important in Spain for example)

[James Chanos @RealJimChanos]

$SPCX Shareholders, you sure you want to buy this 5% ROIC business for $1.5T…?!

[Geoffrey Fouvry @GraphCall]

The problem of value investing dying is actually not that new. In large money printing episodes to cover Gov insolvencies you have that situation.
It happened with the French and UK insolvency in 1720 with the Mississippi bubble and South Sea Bubble, shortly after the Napoleonic wars the UK funded the fictitious country of Poyas, during the Civil war, a venture to dry the Red and find the Gold of the Hebrews who walked at the bottom of the Sea with Moses miracle got funding. I have the archives.
We have had plenty of DogWithHat, crypto-craps,BTC what have you.
The currency falls versus the precious metals each time.
RINSE / REPEAT

[Geoffrey Fouvry @GraphCall]

@KurtisKivi Follow me and I send you my screen capture of my interactive borkers.
I am have no problem shorting the most favorite darlings especially when they have technological weaknesses in the larger part of their business.

[Geoffrey Fouvry @GraphCall]

Maybe the big "next move" of Musk is not the $TSLA - $SPCX merger but is tcha-tcha-tcha on Mars who knows? 🤷‍♂️

Merger is nice, you can bury the lack of progress on EVs in the segment data.

[Geoffrey Fouvry @GraphCall]

@oriental_ghost I don't know if Gold is leaking but it seems that stupidity is overflowing (as usual though).

[Geoffrey Fouvry @GraphCall]

@planeboy1 Yes QS is not a bad tech, not the best and not the most ready in solid state (basqueVolt has its tech the Ukrainian drones that's why those go so far in Russian territory)

[Geoffrey Fouvry @GraphCall]

Well the thing is that Lithium Batteries and Solar , sure the ability to scale was there. But they are not necessarily good examples.

China infringed the patents of Q-Cells SE, "invalidated" some by Maxeon and some by First Solar (trhough acquisition).

So China is in a lot of trouble in TopConn patents (sticky problem) and less so on BackContact patents (they expire by 2028).

Also on EV China invalidated the LFP patents (read stole) back in 2012 from the University of Texas and MIchel Armand at Quebec Hydro.

The Solar industry of China has since been quite innovative and will be fine post 2028.

As per battery I don't share the general enthusiasm because they are once again quite behind on the next generation of batteries (Solid State) .

And I don't think that they will be able to pull-off a second "I don't careif I can't sell my battery outside of China until 2022"

Musk relies on those stolen patents, so he has little credibility in my view and his next generation of batteries is not impressive at all.

The leaders in solid state are BasqueVolt (operational), QuantumScape, Honda in my opinion. I don't about the new BlueSolutions polymer quality, it could be a suprise.
China is trying to do a "Honda" with sulfides but without the turbofan engine precision known-how that Honda has and without the general extreme precision roll-press manufacturing that Japan has.

THOUGH to Elon Musk's credit the self-driving thing is quite impressive, but there TSLA does not have the highest level of accreditation on self-driving software, in fact I believe that only Honda, BMW and Mercedes have it.

While a social media network has its advantages I am not entirely sure it should be relied upon for "information".

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

When China figures out how to manufacture a product, their ability to scale is often greater than the rest of the world combined. We saw this with lithium batteries and solar, for example.

SpaceX is a rare counter-example, where its mass to orbit is roughly an order of magnitude greater than the rest of the world, BUT China now does a majority of non-SpaceX mass to orbit. SpaceX is an anomaly in the matrix.

Maybe RAM will be different, but RAM was a low margin commodity only ~3 years ago. LP5 and LP6 are designed to a common standard that China seems to be solving fast.

Newer HBM architectures and things like an SRAM layer below logic and 3D stacking RAM on top of logic while finding a way to keep the logic cooled will be harder to solve.

[Geoffrey Fouvry @GraphCall]

Get used to the new world.