Graphics_Talk

Detailed graphics & charts covering anything that interests me (mainly financial markets, macroeconomics, and geopolitics).

[Graphics_Talk @Graphics_Talk]

The UK 30-year gilt yield touched 5.78% Monday on the May Day reopen. That is the highest level since 1998, before the Bank of England was independent.

The 10-year crossed 5.08%, a high not seen since July 2008.

Three forces are stacking. Markets now price close to three quarter-point BoE hikes this year, anchored on energy pass-through. Thursday's local elections look unkind to Starmer. And the gilt curve is absorbing the Iran oil shock without a domestic buyer of last resort, since the BoE is still running active sales.

Reeves's autumn budget arithmetic deteriorates with every basis point. Each 10 bp move at the long end is roughly £4-5 billion of incremental annual debt service at steady state.

Bailey holds the May 7 MPC. The market has already moved without him.

#Markets #Gilts #UK #BoE #Macro $TLT $EWU $GBPUSD $FXB

[Graphics_Talk @Graphics_Talk]

OpenAI's new $10B Deployment Company offers participating sponsors a 17.5% guaranteed minimum return on preferred equity, per Reuters. That number is a benchmark reset.

Every senior unsecured BDC loan at 11-12% is now competing for sponsor capital against an AI deployment wrapper paying 17.5% before any participation upside.

Carlyle's six-factor model says listed BDCs trade at a 14-percentage-point discount to NAV, roughly one full standard deviation wider than fundamentals justify. Part of that gap is not credit fear. It is LP capital quietly draining toward a higher-yielding parallel wrapper.

Sponsors with these vehicles in place compound. Sponsors without one lose share into the 2027 fundraising cycle. The BDC discount is not closing on a credit-cycle thesis alone.

#PrivateCredit #AI #BDCs #Markets $BX $KKR $APO $CG $BIZD #OPENAI

[Graphics_Talk @Graphics_Talk]

Long Lake's $9.50 take-private of Amex Global Business Travel at $6.3B EV is being framed by General Catalyst as an "AI deployment chassis."

Read the framing literally. A corporate travel platform is worth a premium because its captive corporate user base can be re-platformed with frontier AI distribution.

If that logic holds, every staid mid-cap with a captive corporate user base just became an LBO candidate at a premium that public multiples do not reflect.

Payroll (ADP, PAYC). Commercial insurance distribution (TRV). Telecom billing (DOX). Fund administration (SS&C). HR tech across the cohort.

These have traded as legacy businesses for a decade. The AmEx GBT framing rewrites them as distribution chassis with captive embedded users that frontier-model vendors will pay sponsors to access.

The catalyst is the next sponsor printing the same framing. Until then it is a positioning trade, not a catalyst trade.

#Markets #AI #PrivateEquity #LBO $ADP $PAYC $TRV $SSNC $GBTG

[Graphics_Talk @Graphics_Talk]

Treasury Secretary Bessent told reporters Russia GL 134B would not be renewed. On April 17 it was extended for the third time, authorising delivery and sale of Russian-origin crude on vessels loaded through May 16.

On May 1, OFAC issued Iran GL W winding down dealings with one terminal, Qingdao Haiye, by May 31. Three Iranian foreign-currency exchange houses were designated under Economic Fury.

Read together, Russian crude keeps flowing under waiver while symbolic Iran enforcement targets a single terminal. The compound effect during the Hormuz disruption is more, not less, oil on the water.

This is a structural cushion deployed through OFAC, not an enforcement gap. The May 16 GL 134B expiration is the binding tripwire. A fourth extension confirms the policy. A lapse compounds the shock.

The trade is refiners over E&Ps. The cushion suppresses the WTI bid that pure-play crude longs need.

#Energy #Sanctions #Oil #Macro $PSX $MPC $XOP $XLE $WTI

[Graphics_Talk @Graphics_Talk]

Spirit Aviation Holdings filed Monday to wind down operations after a $500M federal rescue collapsed. Court filings cited nearly $100M of incremental jet fuel costs March 1 to April 30.

The same morning, Amazon launched Supply Chain Services with P&G, 3M, Lands' End and American Eagle as anchors. UPS closed -10.5% at $96.31 on 18.5M shares. FedEx fell roughly the same.

Two stories, one mechanism. The Iran shock is destroying corporate operating leverage at transport-exposed cost-takers faster than it shows up in headline inflation.

CPI captures consumer prices. It does not capture margin compression at airlines, parcel and downstream consumer discretionary. The Fed will keep seeing inflation prints that under-report the real corporate damage.

Q2 earnings season will show margin compression at XLY-weighted names that the macro tape did not warn the FOMC to expect. The defense and refiner book is the offset.

#Inflation #Markets #Earnings #Macro $XLY $UPS $FDX $LDOS $PSX $FLYYQ

[Graphics_Talk @Graphics_Talk]

@Barchart Yup. UK 30Y gilts just printed the highest yield since 1998. Reeves’ budget math just got a lot uglier: https://t.co/NN5OlbF4dZ

[Graphics_Talk @Graphics_Talk]

The UK 30-year gilt yield touched 5.78% Monday on the May Day reopen. That is the highest level since 1998, before the Bank of England was independent.

The 10-year crossed 5.08%, a high not seen since July 2008.

Three forces are stacking. Markets now price close to three quarter-point BoE hikes this year, anchored on energy pass-through. Thursday's local elections look unkind to Starmer. And the gilt curve is absorbing the Iran oil shock without a domestic buyer of last resort, since the BoE is still running active sales.

Reeves's autumn budget arithmetic deteriorates with every basis point. Each 10 bp move at the long end is roughly £4-5 billion of incremental annual debt service at steady state.

Bailey holds the May 7 MPC. The market has already moved without him.

#Markets #Gilts #UK #BoE #Macro $TLT $EWU $GBPUSD $FXB

[Graphics_Talk @Graphics_Talk]

Golub buying back at 84% of NAV while non-accruals jump 36% in one quarter is the cleanest signal yet that listed BDCs are splitting in two. Lower software exposure names like MAIN are behaving completely differently. Full breakdown on the dispersion trade here: https://t.co/D01fQL9Msw

[Graphics_Talk @Graphics_Talk]

Golub buying back at 84% of NAV while non-accruals jump 36% in one quarter is the cleanest signal yet that listed BDCs are splitting in two. Lower software exposure names like MAIN are behaving completely differently. Full breakdown on the dispersion trade here: https://t.co/D01fQL9Msw

[Graphics_Talk @Graphics_Talk]

Golub buying back at 84% of NAV while non-accruals jump 36% in one quarter is the cleanest signal yet that listed BDCs are splitting in two. Lower software exposure names like MAIN are behaving completely differently. Full breakdown on the dispersion trade here: https://t.co/D01fQL9Msw

[Graphics_Talk @Graphics_Talk]

Golub buying back at 84% of NAV while non-accruals jump 36% in one quarter is the cleanest signal yet that listed BDCs are splitting in two. Lower software exposure names like MAIN are behaving completely differently. Full breakdown on the dispersion trade here: https://t.co/D01fQL9Msw

[Graphics_Talk @Graphics_Talk]

Golub buying back at 84% of NAV while non-accruals jump 36% in one quarter is the cleanest signal yet that listed BDCs are splitting in two. Lower software exposure names like MAIN are behaving completely differently. Full breakdown on the dispersion trade here: https://t.co/D01fQL9Msw

[Graphics_Talk @Graphics_Talk]

This is the one that matters most. $LDOS isn’t just another defense name, it’s the systems integration + AI throughput play that’s now seeing real demand from actual interceptor usage in UAE (549 ballistic missiles since Feb). First Iran-cycle guide raise is rarely the last. My full take + chart here: https://t.co/RXVWwqF3Rl

[Graphics_Talk @Graphics_Talk]

This is the one that matters most. $LDOS isn’t just another defense name, it’s the systems integration + AI throughput play that’s now seeing real demand from actual interceptor usage in UAE (549 ballistic missiles since Feb). First Iran-cycle guide raise is rarely the last. My full take + chart here: https://t.co/RXVWwqF3Rl

[Graphics_Talk @Graphics_Talk]

This is the one that matters most. $LDOS isn’t just another defense name, it’s the systems integration + AI throughput play that’s now seeing real demand from actual interceptor usage in UAE (549 ballistic missiles since Feb). First Iran-cycle guide raise is rarely the last. My full take + chart here: https://t.co/RXVWwqF3Rl

[Graphics_Talk @Graphics_Talk]

This is the one that matters most. $LDOS isn’t just another defense name, it’s the systems integration + AI throughput play that’s now seeing real demand from actual interceptor usage in UAE (549 ballistic missiles since Feb). First Iran-cycle guide raise is rarely the last. My full take + chart here: https://t.co/RXVWwqF3Rl

[Graphics_Talk @Graphics_Talk]

This is the one that matters most. $LDOS isn’t just another defense name, it’s the systems integration + AI throughput play that’s now seeing real demand from actual interceptor usage in UAE (549 ballistic missiles since Feb). First Iran-cycle guide raise is rarely the last. My full take + chart here: https://t.co/RXVWwqF3Rl

[Graphics_Talk @Graphics_Talk]

This is the one that matters most. $LDOS isn’t just another defense name, it’s the systems integration + AI throughput play that’s now seeing real demand from actual interceptor usage in UAE (549 ballistic missiles since Feb). First Iran-cycle guide raise is rarely the last. My full take + chart here: https://t.co/RXVWwqF3Rl

[Graphics_Talk @Graphics_Talk]

@AirdropGlideApp Yup. UK 30Y gilts just printed the highest yield since 1998. Reeves’ budget math just got a lot uglier: https://t.co/NN5OlbF4dZ

[Graphics_Talk @Graphics_Talk]

The UK 30-year gilt yield touched 5.78% Monday on the May Day reopen. That is the highest level since 1998, before the Bank of England was independent.

The 10-year crossed 5.08%, a high not seen since July 2008.

Three forces are stacking. Markets now price close to three quarter-point BoE hikes this year, anchored on energy pass-through. Thursday's local elections look unkind to Starmer. And the gilt curve is absorbing the Iran oil shock without a domestic buyer of last resort, since the BoE is still running active sales.

Reeves's autumn budget arithmetic deteriorates with every basis point. Each 10 bp move at the long end is roughly £4-5 billion of incremental annual debt service at steady state.

Bailey holds the May 7 MPC. The market has already moved without him.

#Markets #Gilts #UK #BoE #Macro $TLT $EWU $GBPUSD $FXB

[Graphics_Talk @Graphics_Talk]

@marcosagusstinn Yup. UK 30Y gilts just printed the highest yield since 1998. Reeves’ budget math just got a lot uglier: https://t.co/NN5OlbF4dZ

[Graphics_Talk @Graphics_Talk]

The UK 30-year gilt yield touched 5.78% Monday on the May Day reopen. That is the highest level since 1998, before the Bank of England was independent.

The 10-year crossed 5.08%, a high not seen since July 2008.

Three forces are stacking. Markets now price close to three quarter-point BoE hikes this year, anchored on energy pass-through. Thursday's local elections look unkind to Starmer. And the gilt curve is absorbing the Iran oil shock without a domestic buyer of last resort, since the BoE is still running active sales.

Reeves's autumn budget arithmetic deteriorates with every basis point. Each 10 bp move at the long end is roughly £4-5 billion of incremental annual debt service at steady state.

Bailey holds the May 7 MPC. The market has already moved without him.

#Markets #Gilts #UK #BoE #Macro $TLT $EWU $GBPUSD $FXB

[Graphics_Talk @Graphics_Talk]

@EndlessDreamFi Yup. UK 30Y gilts just printed the highest yield since 1998. Reeves’ budget math just got a lot uglier: https://t.co/NN5OlbF4dZ

[Graphics_Talk @Graphics_Talk]

The UK 30-year gilt yield touched 5.78% Monday on the May Day reopen. That is the highest level since 1998, before the Bank of England was independent.

The 10-year crossed 5.08%, a high not seen since July 2008.

Three forces are stacking. Markets now price close to three quarter-point BoE hikes this year, anchored on energy pass-through. Thursday's local elections look unkind to Starmer. And the gilt curve is absorbing the Iran oil shock without a domestic buyer of last resort, since the BoE is still running active sales.

Reeves's autumn budget arithmetic deteriorates with every basis point. Each 10 bp move at the long end is roughly £4-5 billion of incremental annual debt service at steady state.

Bailey holds the May 7 MPC. The market has already moved without him.

#Markets #Gilts #UK #BoE #Macro $TLT $EWU $GBPUSD $FXB

[Graphics_Talk @Graphics_Talk]

@elerianm Yup. UK 30Y gilts just printed the highest yield since 1998. Reeves’ budget math just got a lot uglier: https://t.co/NN5OlbF4dZ

[Graphics_Talk @Graphics_Talk]

The UK 30-year gilt yield touched 5.78% Monday on the May Day reopen. That is the highest level since 1998, before the Bank of England was independent.

The 10-year crossed 5.08%, a high not seen since July 2008.

Three forces are stacking. Markets now price close to three quarter-point BoE hikes this year, anchored on energy pass-through. Thursday's local elections look unkind to Starmer. And the gilt curve is absorbing the Iran oil shock without a domestic buyer of last resort, since the BoE is still running active sales.

Reeves's autumn budget arithmetic deteriorates with every basis point. Each 10 bp move at the long end is roughly £4-5 billion of incremental annual debt service at steady state.

Bailey holds the May 7 MPC. The market has already moved without him.

#Markets #Gilts #UK #BoE #Macro $TLT $EWU $GBPUSD $FXB