Green Flag Picks

Data-driven NASCAR Cup fantasy picks. Every pick posted before the green flag, every result graded Monday. No hiding the misses.

[Green Flag Picks @GreenFlagPicks]

CALLED IT AGAIN 🏁
WIN: Jesse Love from the pole ✅ Led 156 of 200, swept both stages
Allgaier: 3rd ✅
FADE Sanchez: 7th to 22nd ✅
Crews: 20th ❌
Top picks 2 for 2 this weekend. Cup next.
#NASCAR #Oreilly #Phoenix

[Green Flag Picks @GreenFlagPicks]

GREEN FLAG PICKS: O'Reilly at Phoenix
WIN: Jesse Love. Pole by 0.24s.
TOP 3: Justin Allgaier. Won here in March from 17th.
SLEEPER: Brent Crews. P1 in practice over 1 and 10 laps.
FADE: Nick Sanchez. Starts 7th, 28th on the 10-lap chart.
Who you got? 
7:30 ET #NASCAR #phoenix

[Green Flag Picks @GreenFlagPicks]

The reasoning:
Elliott won here in the spring and was strong late in long runs
Blaney finished 2nd here last fall
Bell has "nothing to lose." Needs a win, 3 straight top 10s here
Gibbs starts 2nd with elite long-run paceChastain: best long-run speed, starts mid-pack
#Martinsville

[Green Flag Picks @GreenFlagPicks]

🏁 Martinsville Cup picks

WIN: Denny Hamlin. On the pole, 6 Martinsville wins, #1 on both our boards

TOP 5: Chase Elliott, Ryan Blaney, Christopher Bell, Ty Gibbs

SLEEPER: Ross Chastain. Best 10- and 15-lap practice averages (per NASCAR), starts 16th

#NASCAR #Xfinity500

[Green Flag Picks @GreenFlagPicks]

🏁 O'Reilly @ Martinsville

WIN: Allgaier – 2nd (won Stage 1, led 52)
TOP 5: Day 3rd ✅ | S. Smith 7th, Caruth 16th, Love 30th ❌
SLEEPER: B. Jones 4th ✅

Kvapil won from the pole, led 121.

Results: NASCAR Statistics
#NASCAR #OReillySeries

[Green Flag Picks @GreenFlagPicks]

🏁 O'Reilly @ Martinsville

WIN: Allgaier – won here in March (led 114), starts 3rd
TOP 5: Love (P1 10-lap), S. Smith (P2 10-lap), Day (2nd here in March), Caruth (starts 2nd)
SLEEPER: B. Jones (P3 10-lap, starts 12th)

Data: NASCAR Statistics
#NASCAR #OReillySeries

[Green Flag Picks @GreenFlagPicks]

🏁 O'Reilly @ Martinsville

WIN: Allgaier – won here in March (led 114), starts 3rd
TOP 5: Love (P1 10-lap), S. Smith (P2 10-lap), Day (2nd here in March), Caruth (starts 2nd)
SLEEPER: B. Jones (P3 10-lap, starts 12th)

Data: NASCAR Statistics
#NASCAR #OReillySeries

[Green Flag Picks @GreenFlagPicks]

🏁 Trucks @ Martinsville ✅

WIN: Chandler Smith – WON
TOP 5: Rhodes 2nd, Riggs 3rd, McKee 5th ✅ | Honeycutt 14th ❌
SLEEPER: Perez de Lara 6th

Riggs led 156 & swept both stages; Smith took it at the end.

Results: NASCAR Statistics
#NASCAR #TruckSeries
#Martinsville

[Green Flag Picks @GreenFlagPicks]

🏁 Trucks @ Martinsville

WIN: Chandler Smith – P1 single lap, P3 10-lap avg, starts 3rd, 4th & 6th here in '25
TOP 5: Honeycutt, Rhodes, Riggs, McKee
SLEEPER: Perez de Lara – P4 10-lap, starts 13th

Data: NASCAR Statistics
#NASCAR #TruckSeries

[Green Flag Picks @GreenFlagPicks]

🏁 Trucks @ Martinsville

WIN: Chandler Smith – P1 single lap, P3 10-lap avg, starts 3rd, 4th & 6th here in '25
TOP 5: Honeycutt, Rhodes, Riggs, McKee
SLEEPER: Perez de Lara – P4 10-lap, starts 13th

Data: NASCAR Statistics
#NASCAR #TruckSeries

[Green Flag Picks @GreenFlagPicks]

Talladega recap: our top pick Suarez ran 18th, a lap down. Chastain ran 4th. Three of our top five got wrecked after RFK owned Stage 1. Superspeedways are a gut call more than a data call, and my gut privately said Larson. Should have posted it. That's on me. #NASCAR #Talladega

[Green Flag Picks @GreenFlagPicks]

Talladega Cup model picks
WIN: Daniel Suarez (finished all 6 of the last 6 drafting races, 10.8 avg)
SLEEPER: Ross Chastain (model #2, +2700 at FanDuel)
TOP 5: Suarez, Chastain, Reddick, Buescher, Keselowski
TOP 10: Elliott, Hocevar, Logano, Bell, Bowman
#NASCAR #Talladega

[Green Flag Picks @GreenFlagPicks]

FADE: Ryan Blaney, the betting favorite. Model has him 19th: he finished only 3 of the last 6 drafting races (21.8 avg). Best drafter in the field, worst survival rate among the contenders. Model output.

[Green Flag Picks @GreenFlagPicks]

Talladega Cup model picks
WIN: Daniel Suarez (finished all 6 of the last 6 drafting races, 10.8 avg)
SLEEPER: Ross Chastain (model #2, +2700 at FanDuel)
TOP 5: Suarez, Chastain, Reddick, Buescher, Keselowski
TOP 10: Elliott, Hocevar, Logano, Bell, Bowman
#NASCAR #Talladega

[Green Flag Picks @GreenFlagPicks]

@bobpockrass Talladega Cup model picks
WIN: Daniel Suarez (finished all 6 of the last 6 drafting races, 10.8 avg)
SLEEPER: Ross Chastain (model #2, +2700 at FanDuel)
TOP 5: Suarez, Chastain, Reddick, Buescher, Keselowski
TOP 10: Elliott, Hocevar, Logano, Bell, Bowman
#NASCAR #Talladega

[Green Flag Picks @GreenFlagPicks]

Talladega. The Chase. 40 cars, a brand-new 3.5-inch spoiler and a 98-lap opening stage. Briscoe on the pole. Larson leads Bell by just 5 points with three races left.
Model's top 3: Suarez, Chastain, Reddick.
Green flag 2:25 ET on NBC.
#NASCAR #Talladega #YellaWood500

[Green Flag Picks @GreenFlagPicks]

Why I missed: my top two both hit trouble. Retzlaff spun in the grass on lap 21 with no caution and lost two laps. Hill tagged the wall and cut a tire in the last 10. Five of the seven I named finished top 10.

[Green Flag Picks @GreenFlagPicks]

Talladega O'Reilly scorecard 🏁
WIN Hill: 35th ❌
SLEEPER Retzlaff: 31st ❌
TOP 5: Kvapil 2nd ✅, Creed 5th ✅, B. Jones 9th, Retzlaff 31st, Hill 35th
TOP 10: Love 3rd ✅, Allgaier 4th ✅
FADE Mayer: 13th from 3rd ✅
Sammy Smith sweeps the weekend
#NASCAR #Talladega

[Green Flag Picks @GreenFlagPicks]

Talladega O'Reilly picks!
WIN: Austin Hill (won Daytona in Feb, 2nd in Aug; starts 5th)
SLEEPER: Parker Retzlaff (8.4 avg in 2026 drafting races)
TOP 5: Hill, Retzlaff, Kvapil, B. Jones, Creed
TOP 10: Love, Allgaier
Research picks, not model output.
#NASCAR #Talladega

[Green Flag Picks @GreenFlagPicks]

FADE: Sam Mayer. Crashed out of 3 of the last 4 drafting races and averages 23.8 in them this year. Starting 3rd puts him right where the wrecks start. My read, not a model call.

[Green Flag Picks @GreenFlagPicks]

Talladega O'Reilly picks!
WIN: Austin Hill (won Daytona in Feb, 2nd in Aug; starts 5th)
SLEEPER: Parker Retzlaff (8.4 avg in 2026 drafting races)
TOP 5: Hill, Retzlaff, Kvapil, B. Jones, Creed
TOP 10: Love, Allgaier
Research picks, not model output.
#NASCAR #Talladega

[Green Flag Picks @GreenFlagPicks]

@bobpockrass Talladega O'Reilly picks 🏁
WIN: Austin Hill (won Daytona in Feb, 2nd in Aug; starts 5th)
SLEEPER: Parker Retzlaff (8.4 avg in 2026 drafting races)
TOP 5: Hill, Retzlaff, Kvapil, B. Jones, Creed
TOP 10: Love, Allgaier
Research picks, not model output.
#NASCAR #Talladega

[Green Flag Picks @GreenFlagPicks]

Why I missed: Ruggiero won Stage 1, got stuck in reverse on pit road, needed a new transmission and finished 29 laps down (Speedway Media). C. Smith fought a flat and got collected late. Front starters ran well this time. Results: NASCAR official sheet.

[Green Flag Picks @GreenFlagPicks]

Talladega Trucks scorecard 🏁
WIN Ruggiero: 25th ❌ (won Stage 1, then trouble)
SLEEPER C. Smith: 14th ❌
TOP 5: Ankrum 2nd ✅, Heim 10th, C. Smith 14th, Rhodes 17th, Ruggiero 25th
TOP 10: Majeski 4th ✅, Honeycutt 5th ✅
FADE Hemric: 35th ✅
#NASCAR #Talladega

[Green Flag Picks @GreenFlagPicks]

Talladega Trucks picks 🏁
WIN: Gio Ruggiero (1st, 2nd, 3rd in the last 3 drafting races)
SLEEPER: Chandler Smith (won Daytona, starts 14th)
TOP 5: Ruggiero, Heim, C. Smith, Ankrum, Rhodes
TOP 10: Majeski, Honeycutt
Research picks, not model output.
#NASCAR #Talladega

[Green Flag Picks @GreenFlagPicks]

@jeff_gluck Talladega Trucks picks 🏁
WIN: Gio Ruggiero (1st, 2nd, 3rd in the last 3 drafting races)
SLEEPER: Chandler Smith (won Daytona, starts 14th)
TOP 5: Ruggiero, Heim, C. Smith, Ankrum, Rhodes
TOP 10: Majeski, Honeycutt
Research picks, not model output.
#NASCAR #Talladega

[Green Flag Picks @GreenFlagPicks]

@NASCAR_Trucks @TyMajeski @TALLADEGA Talladega Trucks picks 🏁
WIN: Gio Ruggiero (1st, 2nd, 3rd in the last 3 drafting races)
SLEEPER: Chandler Smith (won Daytona, starts 14th)
TOP 5: Ruggiero, Heim, C. Smith, Ankrum, Rhodes
TOP 10: Majeski, Honeycutt
Research picks, not model output.
#NASCAR #Talladega