Greg Regier

Licensed Crop Insurance Agent | Ag Loan Officer | Farmer

[Chris Clayton @ChrisClaytonDTN]

USDA Announces Enrollment for $11 Billion in FBA Payments https://t.co/ePROpwnLI5

[Josh Linville @JLinvilleFert]

Right now, NOLA DAP barges are trading at an even $700. December 2026 corn is at $4.63.

That means this is taking 151 bushels of corn to pay for 1-ton of DAP.

This is the 2nd worst/highest ratio seen in history, only behind 2008. Unfortunately, little hope of summer resets.

[Karen Braun @kannbwx]

Chart is super busy but the takeaway is crystal clear - speculators' massive net short in US grains & oilseeds is uncharted territory at this point in the year.

[Ryan Benes @HawkeyeRy]

65% Subsidy coming to ECO for 2025.

If it cost $30/ac last year, it’s only $18.75 in 2025.

Was a good value - now it’s an excellent value.

ECO offers great in season price protection in addition to area yield protection.

ECO Sales will jump dramatically.

#cropinsurance

[Ryan Benes @HawkeyeRy]

In an unsurprising move, RMA is extending payment deadline again.

Most farmers will get an additional 60 days to make #cropinsurance payments.

[WXRISK GRAIN WEATHER @WxRiskGrains]

**US GRAIN WEATHER ALERT** -the 12z Thurs op ECMWF model has again INCREASED the 10D rainfall totals & coverage in the MIDWEST. This is the 3rd run in a row the Euro has done this.

#agwx #oatt #corn #soybeans #wheat #grain #Commodities #farming #agtwitter #Trendisyourfriend

[Josh Linville @JLinvilleFert]

For those wondering how good the #urea/#corn ratio is today, below is the weekly ratio graph going back to 2000.

It has been lower than today but I'm pretty confident in saying that today is pretty damn good.

Don't focus on just prices. Look at the value.

[John Newton @New10_AgEcon]

Today's USDA #cattle report showed #beef cow inventory at 28.9 million head, the lowest since 1962. The -3.6% drop was the largest since 1986. As expected given the #drought and smaller #calf crop #oatt #AgTwitter 🐮🥩👇

[Josh Linville @JLinvilleFert]

Less than a year ago, European natural gas futures broke above $100mmbtu with many saying it would takes YEARS to correct.

Today, those same futures are threatening to break below $20.

All eyes on European nitrogen production for possible restart announcements.

[Ryan Benes @HawkeyeRy]

#CropInsurance

Despite higher costs in ‘23. Most farmers should still be able to lock in insurance guarantees above input costs.

This is goal #1 and it’s the standard all farmers should seek before adding additional spot loss coverage for Replant/Hail/Wind etc.

[Karen Braun @kannbwx]

🇲🇽#Mexico seemingly plans to proceed with the GMO #corn ban by 2024, meaning it will need to replace most of its current import volume (mostly from USA). It is looking at making direct deals with farmers in other countries and says there are many alternatives available (??)

[Jeff Seiler @SGAgAgent]

The 2022 South-Central Kansas Extension Wheat Plot Harvest Results are now available!
https://t.co/eodQH3dTWv

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

US Inflation hit a 40-year high this month and the Fed is still buying bonds. Their balance sheet hit another record high this week at $8.93 trillion, more than doubling over the past 2 years. New Fed policy: throw fuel on the inflationary fire.

Charting via @ycharts

[Ryan Benes @HawkeyeRy]

Crop Ins. Thought of the Day:

.86 cents of every $1 paid into federal crop insurance is the target payout in losses. But farmers pay reduced premium - on avg farmers only pay ~40% of the full premium.

Over time an avg farmer will pay in 40 cents and get 86 cents back. Not bad!

[Greg Regier @GregRegier]

@boussiosd I see, that makes sense. Sometimes the way people (farmers and/or those in the ag industry) have talked about government payments in the past is that it's a zero sum game. This definitely shows that's not the case. Subsidy $ increases rent more than I would expect!

[National Sorghum Producers @SorghumGrowers]

USDA RMA has set the sorghum crop insurance price election for reinsurance year 2022 at 99.6 percent of the price of corn, the largest amount of price protection relative to corn in history under the federal crop insurance program. https://t.co/i9Kqduphbs

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

The Fed purchased another $1.39 trillion in bonds during 2021, bringing their total assets up to $8.76 trillion.

[Greg Regier @GregRegier]

@boussiosd That's interesting! Does this include subsidies to crop insurance and programs like CFAP, or primarily ARC/PLC? Happy New Year, btw!

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

1, 2, and 3 year Treasury yields rise to their highest levels since the start of the pandemic.

The end of easy money is nigh.

[Josh Linville @JLinvilleFert]

News is being shared that the Chinese government has banned fresh shipments of #fertilizer to export ports.

No shipment to ports, no way to export fertilizer from China.

China is a MAJOR producer of fert and a MAJOR exporter.

This is bullish, in case that wasn't clear...