Grenderen (Prediction Arc)

Co Founder @sharexyz @monetrix_xyz
Predictions @Polymarket @Ourbit
Probably creating the next big thing

[Grenderen (Prediction Arc) @Grenderen]

tbf he didn't specify whether it looked good to long or to short

[Ansem 🐂🀄️ @blknoiz06]

solana looks good

[Grenderen (Prediction Arc) @Grenderen]

@Jelitics insane

[Grenderen (Prediction Arc) @Grenderen]

@goatdsalmon lmao

[Grenderen (Prediction Arc) @Grenderen]

@yellowpantherx rip

[Grenderen (Prediction Arc) @Grenderen]

Thanks @Polymarket and @UseVault777 used some profits

[Grenderen (Prediction Arc) @Grenderen]

Congratulations to @ethlabs_org big things coming!

[Ethlabs @ethlabs_org]

Week 1 is in the books 🫡

Thank you to everyone across Ethereum who welcomed Ethlabs, supported us, questioned us, donated, applied, and replied. The response is hugely appreciated and while we work through getting back to everyone, here are some quick answers to the questions we’ve been getting most.

More coming on priorities, workstreams, boundaries, accountability mechanisms, and what success actually looks like.

Bear with us as we get on our feet. We won’t be perfect, but we’ll try to communicate often, and transparently.

Ok, quick FAQ now.

[Grenderen (Prediction Arc) @Grenderen]

Think people are heavily under allocated to crypto right now.

Reminds me of deep 2022 bear market only much more constructive right now as no one thinks crypto is easy money anymore and we are on the precipice of real large scale adoption.

Not hard for 100%+ moves from here.

[Grenderen (Prediction Arc) @Grenderen]

Many don’t see the bigger picture with Ansem if he executes this well.

You have people who never day trench blasting 5-6 figs into this token. This liquidity can bless thousands of small day trenchers and let them start their journey again.

Robinhood type shi if done properly.

[Grenderen (Prediction Arc) @Grenderen]

maybe we overthought all the launchpad dynamics and stuff and it was always mostly just a culture problem

makes sense, we need to cycle from ultimate belief to ultimate disbelief every 2 years for memecoins to be a thing

[Grenderen (Prediction Arc) @Grenderen]

Over the last year:

Called the top on crypto.
Exited into cash.
Doubled port with gold/silver/alt-assets.
Exited into cash.
Currently calling the top on equities.

Misses:

Not playing equities.
Not playing oil.
A punt or two going south (<5% of port).

All timestamped.

[Grenderen (Prediction Arc) @Grenderen]

@Jelitics easy day

[Grenderen (Prediction Arc) @Grenderen]

@UseVault777 huge

[Grenderen (Prediction Arc) @Grenderen]

Best looking chart in the entire industry

$HYPE next leg up will be violent

Hyperliquid.

[Grenderen (Prediction Arc) @Grenderen]

Meditate on this:

With Hyperliquid, crypto finally has a mainstream use case

And that's really all that matters

[Grenderen (Prediction Arc) @Grenderen]

if you've been losing money trading id recommend sizing down until you've got your mojo back, or taking a break

sizing up to chase losses usually leads to getting zeroed out

surviving until easy mode should always be the priority

[Grenderen (Prediction Arc) @Grenderen]

Repeat after me: Hyperliquid

[Evanss6 @Evan_ss6]

Just want to point out a few things wrong/missing from this analysis to give a more informed take:

The takes on being a bucket shop are silly so won't even respond to that. I don't believe there is some "Holy" level of leverage to offer that the CME has mastered. The key is safety and being able to properly liquidate positions. People trading on high leverage want high leverage, period.

Crypto Share of Volume: Share relative to Binance is making fresh highs. Still at just 15%. Keep in mind since this is a % of Binance rather than a % of the whole, this can go above 100% in best case scenario (not saying this is likely).

AQAv2: 90% of the yield from USDC is being used to buy back HYPE. This is known but the flows don't start until October. Addition of $150-200M to ARR.

HyperCore Priority Fees: This was essentially 0 two months ago and a $20M ARR currently. This has a lot of room to grow potentially and is yet another signal that when this team ships, there is immediate uptake and boost to revenue.

HyperEVM network fees: burning around $1M HYPE/month

Ticker auctions: burning around $2.5M/year

HIP-4: brand new, currently no significant contribution. Kalshi and Polymarket have demonstrated PMF for Prediction Markets. I personally am not very bullish on this sector but maybe I'm wrong.

HIP-5 and beyond: the team continues to ship and most things they ship see real uptake. I could imagine them eventually launching options among other things.

The Regulatory Fork: Most serious money is still not allowed to use Hyperliquid. Hedge Funds are locked out because of LP agreements, and MMers for regulatory reasons. Opening up the market to America and to serious professionals like HFs/MMers. This would be tremendously bullish on volumes and liquidity. I call it a "fork" because the downside case is they get lawfared out forever. If this is your thesis, I implore you to watch this recent interview that I will link below with the CFTC chair.

Hyperliquid as a Liquidity Backend: we have already seen large uptake of builder codes as consumer-facing products such as Phantom and Fomo offer perps to users in their frontends via their builder codes. The best case scenario for Hyperliquid is that it becomes one of the liquidity backends for traditional brokers and MMers. If Hyperliquid can continue offering better pricing than CME (as they do on BTC/ETH/SOL futures), this could become a large source of future volume in the good regulatory scenarios.

Staking Rewards and Community Tokens: Lazy analysis values HYPE at its fully diluted value. More careful analysis realizes 1) most emissions go directly to existing token holders 2) future community emissions (nearly 40% of fully diluted supply) may never happen, partially happen, or be redirected to stakers over N number of years. If 1 HYPE staked today = 2 HYPE staked in N years, the price is effectively halved today (ignoring tax distortions). The circulating cap is around $17B today, and this isn't backing out any supply, including that owned by Hyperliquid Strategies DAT, which is presumably off the market.

Hyperliquid.

[Grenderen (Prediction Arc) @Grenderen]

Memecoins were fun bc of the easy access and liquidity but the zero sum pump and dump game is clear now. Most go to 0, many are scams.

The holy GRAIL is a product that combines the access and liquidity of memecoins with the durable value of real world assets.

[Grenderen (Prediction Arc) @Grenderen]

$228,000 World Cup bet 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 vs 🇲🇦 Good Luck!!

[Grenderen (Prediction Arc) @Grenderen]

@Starcaster1 gamble ofc

[Grenderen (Prediction Arc) @Grenderen]

@BigFoltz brutal