Grinch Mike

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🏆 Daily Best Bets + Confidence Rankings
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[Grinch Mike @GrinchPicks1]

⚾️ TUESDAY MLB SLATE BREAKDOWN 💣

Breaking down all 15 games on tomorrow’s board 👀

Best matchups, pitching edges, moneylines, totals & spots I’m targeting 📊

Everything I’m looking at for September 1st is below 👇

⚾️ TUESDAY MLB BREAKDOWN

🧵👇

1️⃣ METS @ RAYS

Sean Manaea vs Freddy Peralta

Tampa comes into this matchup as the stronger team overall, but Peralta hasn't exactly been automatic this season. Manaea has had his own inconsistencies, so I don't love laying a big number here.

Lean: Rays ML
Total: Over 8 lean
Confidence: 6.5/10
Would rather use Tampa in a combo than make this one of my strongest straight ML plays.
2️⃣ PADRES @ REDS

Randy Vásquez vs Nick Lodolo

Interesting pitching matchup because neither starter screams "automatic shutdown spot." Lodolo enters with a 5.24 ERA, while Vásquez has been the steadier arm.

Great American Ball Park always keeps the long ball in play, too.

Lean: Padres ML
Total: Over 9.5 lean
Confidence: 7/10

San Diego is the side I trust more if this turns into a bullpen/offense game.

3️⃣ GIANTS @ PIRATES
Logan Webb vs Paul Skenes
Best pure pitching matchup on the board.

Webb has been solid, but Skenes gives Pittsburgh the higher strikeout ceiling. This isn't a matchup where I'm looking to force an offensive angle.

Lean: Pirates ML
Total: Under 7.5
Confidence: 8/10

One of my favorite UNDER spots if both starters are dealing.

4️⃣ BLUE JAYS @ GUARDIANS

Spencer Arrighetti vs Gavin Williams

This is one of the bigger starting-pitching edges on the slate.
Williams has piled up strikeouts and enters with a 3.98 ERA, while Arrighetti has been much more vulnerable.
Cleveland at home with Williams is immediately on my radar.

🔥 Lean: Guardians ML
Total: Under 8 lean
Confidence: 8.5/10

One of my favorite ML looks on the board.

5️⃣ BRAVES @ NATIONALS

AJ Smith-Shawver vs Jake Irvin

Atlanta is the sizable favorite here, and this looks like a spot where the Braves' offense can do damage if Irvin doesn't have his command.

The total sitting around 10 tells you what kind of game the market is expecting.

🔥 Lean: Braves ML
Total: Over 10 lean
Confidence: 8/10
Atlanta is one of the teams I'd consider building around in combos.
6️⃣ MARINERS @ RED SOX

Bryan Woo vs Boston TBD

This is one I'm treating carefully until Boston's starter is completely locked in.

Woo gives Seattle an interesting pitching angle, but Fenway can change a game quickly.

Lean: Mariners + money / PASS
Total: Under 7 lean
Confidence: 5.5/10

Not forcing this until the pitching situation is finalized.

7️⃣ TIGERS @ TWINS
Troy Melton vs Connor Prielipp
Melton has been excellent, carrying a 1.86 ERA into this matchup.

Prielipp has struggled considerably more, which gives Detroit the clearest starting-pitching advantage.

🔥 Lean: Tigers ML
Total: Under 8.5 lean
Confidence: 8/10

Detroit is another ML I want on the shortlist.

8️⃣ MARLINS @ ROYALS

Tyler Phillips vs Randy Dobnak

Sneaky game.
Phillips has been respectable and Dobnak has put up excellent numbers in limited work. With KC only around -120, the market doesn't see a huge gap between these teams.
Lean: Royals ML
Total: Under 9.5 lean
Confidence: 5.5/10

Probably not a game I need to force.

9️⃣ BREWERS @ CUBS

Robert Gasser vs Matthew Boyd

Milwaukee has been one of baseball's better teams, but Chicago gets the home-field edge and Boyd.

Gasser enters with a 4.59 ERA, so Chicago should get opportunities if they're patient early.

Lean: Cubs ML
Total: Over 10.5 lean
Confidence: 6/10
This feels much more volatile than the stronger favorites elsewhere.
🔟 ATHLETICS @ RANGERS

J.T. Ginn vs MacKenzie Gore

Texas is a big home favorite, but this isn't a matchup I'd blindly play because of the price.

Gore has swing-and-miss stuff, but he's also carrying a 4.40 ERA. Texas needs to give him run support.

🔥 Lean: Rangers ML
Total: Under 7.5 lean
Confidence: 8/10

Texas remains one of the stronger ML sides, but I prefer using the ML in combos rather than paying a huge standalone price.

1️⃣1️⃣ WHITE SOX @ ASTROS
Sean Burke vs Houston TBD
Burke has quietly put together a strong season with a 3.32 ERA and 161 strikeouts.

That makes this much less straightforward than simply seeing Houston at home and clicking Astros ML.

Lean: Astros ML
Total: Wait
Confidence: 6/10

Need the confirmed Houston starter before making this a stronger play.

1️⃣2️⃣ ORIOLES @ ROCKIES

Kyle Bradish vs Gabriel Hughes

Now THIS is an offensive spot I'm interested in.
Hughes enters with a 6.61 ERA, and Baltimore gets him at Coors Field. That's exactly the kind of matchup where crooked innings can happen quickly.
🔥 Lean: Orioles ML
🔥 Total: Over 11
Confidence: 8/10

Baltimore team total could be even more interesting than the full-game ML.

1️⃣3️⃣ YANKEES @ ANGELS

Gerrit Cole vs Grayson Rodriguez

This immediately jumps off the page.

Cole enters with a 3.19 ERA, while Rodriguez is sitting above 6.00. Add the difference between these two offenses and New York has several paths to control the game.

🔥🔥 Lean: Yankees ML
Total: Over 8 lean
Confidence: 9/10
One of my FAVORITE moneylines on the entire slate.
1️⃣4️⃣ PHILLIES @ DIAMONDBACKS

Jesús Luzardo vs Eduardo Rodriguez

Really good pitching matchup.

Luzardo has a 3.09 ERA with 203 strikeouts, while E-Rod has been excellent at 2.50.

The Phillies are favored, but Arizona isn't a team I'm eager to fade with Rodriguez throwing this well.

Lean: Phillies ML
🔥 Total: Under 7.5
Confidence: 7.5/10

I like the pitching angle more than laying the Phillies price.
1️⃣5️⃣ CARDINALS @ DODGERS
Michael McGreevy vs Eric Lauer

Late-night Dodgers spot to finish the slate.

Lauer has been hittable, but LA has the much stronger overall lineup and gets this game at home.

🔥 Lean: Dodgers ML
Total: Over 9 lean
Confidence: 8/10

Dodgers are absolutely in the ML combo conversation.

━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

🔥 FAVORITE MLs
Yankees ML
Guardians ML

Rangers ML

Braves ML

Dodgers ML

Tigers ML

Pirates ML

💣 FAVORITE TOTALS
Giants/Pirates UNDER 7.5
Phillies/Diamondbacks UNDER 7.5
Orioles/Rockies OVER 11
Padres/Reds OVER 9.5
Braves/Nationals OVER 10
🎯 EARLY TOP 3

Yankees ML
Guardians ML
Rangers ML

Those are the three sides I'm looking at the hardest heading into Tuesday.

Final plays can change once lineups are confirmed 👀

[Grinch Mike @GrinchPicks1]

4 STRAIGHT DAYS. 4 STRAIGHT 2X’s. 🔥

$500.96 ➡️ $1,015.19 💰
Another Kalshi slip CASHED. We’re absolutely rolling right now.

The streak continues. 🧹💚

[Grinch Mike @GrinchPicks1]

POTD RECORD: 9-1 🎯

10 picks. 9 winners.
Today we’re handing the ball to Texas. 🤝

⚾️ RANGERS ML

Time to make it 10-1. 😈💰

Grinch Picks stays hot. 🍀

[Grinch Mike @GrinchPicks1]

RANGERS CASH IT 🔥💰

I was wrong. We are now
11-1 ON PICK OF THE DAYS.
At this point we’re just warming our hands by the fire 😭🔥

Grinch Picks stays HOT. 🎯💚

[Grinch Mike @GrinchPicks1]

Going for 4 STRAIGHT DAYS of cashing the 2X 🎯🔥

$500 ➡️ $1,015 on today’s card.

🎾 US Open
⚾️ MLB

Keep stacking days. Let’s make it 4. 🍀💰

[Grinch Mike @GrinchPicks1]

⚾️ MONDAY MLB SLATE BREAKDOWN 💣

Breaking down all 12 games on Monday’s board 👀

Moneylines, totals, pitching edges & the spots I’m targeting 📊

Everything I’m looking at for August 31st is below 👇

⚾️ GIANTS @ BRAVES

Anthony Molina vs Bryce Elder
ATL -163 | O/U 8
Atlanta enters this matchup 82-55 compared to San Francisco at 56-81. Molina has only a tiny MLB sample this season — 1-0 with a 2.89 ERA but just 3 strikeouts — while Elder has given Atlanta significantly more established innings at 8-7 with a 3.95 ERA and 118 Ks.
The Braves have the more trustworthy starter, better overall team profile and home-field advantage. Molina’s lack of major-league workload makes me much more comfortable backing Atlanta than trying to project San Francisco.

Lean: Braves ML
Total: Slight Over 8
Best angle: ATL ML
Confidence: 7.5/10

⚾️ METS @ RAYS

Robert Stock vs Ian Seymour
TB -175 | O/U 8
This is one of my favorite pitching mismatches on the slate.
Stock comes in 0-3 with a 7.40 ERA, while Seymour is 9-5 with a 4.21 ERA and 128 strikeouts. Tampa Bay is also 82-54 compared with New York at 61-76.
Stock has given us very little reason to trust him against a Rays team that has been one of the stronger clubs in baseball.

Lean: Rays ML
Total: Over 8
Best angle: Rays ML / Rays team total Over
Confidence: 9/10

🔥 One of my favorite MLs Monday.
⚾️ PADRES @ REDS
Michael King vs Brady Singer
SD -148 | O/U 9

Another matchup I like quite a bit.

King enters with a 3.23 ERA and 135 strikeouts, while Singer sits at 4.72 ERA. That is a meaningful starting-pitching advantage for San Diego.

Great American Ball Park always adds some volatility to totals, so I’m not nearly as interested in laying an Under 9 even with King pitching.

I would rather attack the side.
Lean: Padres ML
Total: Slight Over 9
Best angle: Padres ML
Confidence: 8.5/10
🔥 Top-three ML candidate.
⚾️ MARLINS @ NATIONALS

Ryan Gusto vs Will Dion
MIA -123 | O/U 8.5

This is considerably closer than the first few games.

Gusto owns a 3.98 ERA while Dion sits at 3.67. Miami is 69-68 and Washington 65-74, so there isn't a massive team-quality gap either.
At only -123, Miami is playable, but I don't see nearly enough separation to make this a priority.
Lean: Marlins ML
Total: Under 8.5
Best angle: Under 8.5
Confidence: 5.5/10

🚫 Not a game I need to force.

⚾️ MARINERS @ RED SOX

George Kirby vs Payton Tolle
BOS -167 | O/U 8

This line caught my attention because Seattle is throwing George Kirby, but Boston counters with a very strong Payton Tolle.

Kirby: 4.02 ERA, 126 Ks
Tolle: 3.09 ERA, 141 Ks
Tolle has actually produced the better 2026 run-prevention numbers, and Boston brings the stronger overall record at 74-63 compared with Seattle at 64-73.
I understand Boston being favored, although -167 is getting expensive against Kirby.
Lean: Red Sox ML
Total: Under 8
Best angle: Under 8 / BOS ML
Confidence: 7/10

📉 One of the better Under candidates.

⚾️ TIGERS @ TWINS

Jackson Jobe vs Taj Bradley
MIN -135 | O/U 8.5
Interesting matchup.
Jobe has a 3.93 ERA but only 15 strikeouts in a small MLB sample. Bradley enters 9-6 with a 3.97 ERA and a huge 169 strikeouts.

Minnesota gets the experience advantage on the mound and home field, but Detroit can make this competitive.

Lean: Twins ML
Total: Under 8.5
Best angle: MIN ML
Confidence: 6.5/10

Not one of my core bets.

⚾️ BREWERS @ CUBS
Kyle Harrison vs Clay Holmes
CHC -114 | O/U 9.5
This may be the most interesting pitching matchup of the night.
Harrison: 10-3, 2.79 ERA, 127 Ks
Holmes: 5-6, 2.26 ERA

Milwaukee is also 85-52, compared with Chicago at 77-60.

Baseball Savant's matchup history is particularly interesting: current Cubs hitters have produced just a .140 average and .192 wOBA in 45 plate appearances against Harrison. Current Milwaukee hitters have a .167 average and .259 wOBA against Holmes. Small samples, but both support the quality of these starters.

At Brewers plus money, I actually prefer Milwaukee to Chicago -114.
Lean: Brewers ML
Total: UNDER 9.5
Best angle: Under 9.5
Confidence: 8/10
🔥 Under 9.5 is one of my favorite totals Monday.

⚾️ ATHLETICS @ RANGERS

Gage Jump vs Jacob deGrom
TEX -244 | O/U 7.5
Texas is obviously the biggest favorite for a reason, but this isn't prime deGrom statistically.

Jump: 6-8, 4.69 ERA
deGrom: 9-9, 4.21 ERA, 159 Ks

Texas still owns the clear starting-pitcher talent advantage, is home, and gets an Athletics club sitting at 53-84.

My issue is simply the price. At -244, Texas ML isn't something I love betting straight.
Lean: Rangers ML
Total: Under 7.5
Best angle: TEX ML for parlays / alternate markets
Confidence to win: 9/10
Confidence at -244 value: 6.5/10
✅ Safest winner ≠ best straight-bet value.
⚾️ WHITE SOX @ ASTROS

Anthony Kay vs Peter Lambert
HOU -131 | O/U 8.5

This game is much closer than Houston's reputation might make people assume.

Kay: 9-6, 4.09 ERA, 108 Ks
Lambert: 8-7, 3.66 ERA, 125 Ks
Houston is only 69-68 while Chicago is 72-64. That's important context when deciding whether Houston deserves to automatically be backed at home.
Lambert gives Houston a slight pitching edge, but this is not a spot where I want to get aggressive.

Lean: Astros ML
Total: Under 8.5
Best angle: Under 8.5
Confidence: 6/10

🚫 Houston ML is not a priority play for me.

⚾️ ORIOLES @ ROCKIES

BAL -143 | O/U 11
Your board lists Kyle Bradish vs Tanner Gordon, although MLB currently has Baltimore's starter listed TBD. Colorado's Gordon is confirmed at 1-4 with a 5.38 ERA.
Regardless, this is Coors Field with an 11-run number.
Baltimore gets a major offensive opportunity against Gordon and a Colorado club sitting at 52-85.

Rather than automatically taking Over 11 — where you need a lot of offense — I prefer isolating Baltimore's scoring.

Lean: Orioles ML
Total: Over 11 lean
Best angle: Orioles team total Over 3.5
Confidence: 8/10

🔥 One of my FAVORITE team-total spots.
⚾️ YANKEES @ ANGELS
Elmer Rodríguez vs Walbert Ureña
NYY -143 | O/U 8.5

This one is more complicated than the standings suggest.

New York is 78-59 while Los Angeles is 52-85, but Ureña has quietly put together a 2.94 ERA. Rodríguez is 0-2 with a 4.70 ERA in limited work.
So although New York is unquestionably the better team, the starting pitching matchup doesn't scream Yankees at -143.

I'd still side with New York over nine innings because of the difference in overall roster quality, but it isn't nearly as strong as Tampa Bay or San Diego.

Lean: Yankees ML
Total: Under 8.5
Best angle: NYY ML
Confidence: 7/10

⚾️ PHILLIES @ DIAMONDBACKS

Aaron Nola vs Arizona TBD
PHI -125 | O/U 8
Your board lists Brandon Pfaadt, but MLB currently lists Arizona's starter as TBD, so I don't want to handicap this as a confirmed Nola/Pfaadt matchup yet.
Nola hasn't had his best year: 5-10 with a 5.03 ERA, although he still owns 153 strikeouts.
Philadelphia is 77-60 while Arizona is 73-65. At only -125, Philly would become interesting if Arizona confirms a starter we can attack, but right now this isn't something I'd lock early.

Lean: Phillies ML
Total: Pass
Best angle: Wait for Arizona SP confirmation
Confidence: 5.5/10

🏆 MONDAY MONEYLINE RANKINGS

🔥 Rays ML -175
🔥 Padres ML -148
Rangers ML -244

Braves ML -163

Orioles ML -143
Yankees ML -143

Red Sox ML -167

Brewers ML + money

Twins ML -135
Astros ML -131
Phillies ML -125
Marlins ML -123
💰 BEST TEAM O3.5 RUN SPOTS

🔥 Orioles O3.5

🔥 Rays O3.5

Padres O3.5
Braves O3.5
Yankees O3.5

Rangers O3.5

📈 BEST OVER SPOTS
Orioles/Rockies Over 11

Padres/Reds Over 9

Giants/Braves Over 8

Mets/Rays Over 8
📉 BEST UNDER SPOTS
🔥 Brewers/Cubs Under 9.5
Mariners/Red Sox Under 8

White Sox/Astros Under 8.5

Tigers/Twins Under 8.5

Yankees/Angels Under 8.5
🚫 GAMES I DON'T WANT TO FORCE

Marlins/Nationals
Tigers/Twins
White Sox/Astros
Phillies/Diamondbacks until Arizona confirms its starter

🔥 MY EARLY MONDAY CORE

Rays ML
Padres ML
Orioles team O3.5
Brewers/Cubs U9.5

🏆 EARLY PICK OF THE DAY LEAN: RAYS ML

Stock's 7.40 ERA against an 82-win Tampa Bay club gives me the cleanest combination of pitching advantage, team advantage and matchup on Monday's board.

[Grinch Mike @GrinchPicks1]

Got unlucky on a few today, but still walked away with some nice Ws 😈💰 We keep rolling. 🔥

[Grinch Mike @GrinchPicks1]

3 DAYS. 3 2X’s. 😈💰
The heater continues. Phillies ML handles business and the whole card goes 4/4. 🧹🔥

I AM COOKING. 🍽️

[Grinch Mike @GrinchPicks1]

Going for the THREE-PEAT 😈💰

Back-to-back 2X days already cashed… now we’re hunting 3 STRAIGHT. 🔥

💵 $499.96 ➡️ $1,007.04
⚾️ Phillies ML + 3 run totals

Run it back. 🍽️

[Grinch Mike @GrinchPicks1]

⚾️ SUNDAY MLB SLATE BREAKDOWN 💣

Breaking down all 14 games on today’s board 👀

Best matchups, pitching edges, moneylines, totals & spots I’m targeting 📊

Everything I’m looking at for August 30th is below 👇

⚾️ SUNDAY MLB BREAKDOWN

1️⃣ MIA @ WSH

Janson Junk vs Andrew Alvarez

Pretty even matchup with Miami only a slight favorite. Neither side gives me enough of an edge to force a moneyline here, and the 9-run total puts the offenses more in play.

🎯 LEAN: OVER 9

2️⃣ COL @ ATL

Mason Adams vs Tyler Mahle

One of the biggest mismatches on the board. Atlanta gets Colorado away from Coors and has a significant overall advantage at home.

🎯 LEAN: BRAVES ML

3️⃣ BOS @ NYY

Ranger Suárez vs Will Warren

Boston gets the starting pitching edge with Suárez, but betting against New York in Yankee Stadium is never comfortable. One of the more interesting games on the slate.

🎯 LEAN: RED SOX ML

4️⃣ SEA @ TOR

Logan Gilbert vs Max Scherzer

Gilbert is the arm I trust more in this matchup. Seattle is favored on the road for a reason, and this profiles as one of the better pitching matchups of the day.

🎯 LEAN: MARINERS ML / UNDER 8

5️⃣ KC @ CLE

Seth Lugo vs Parker Messick

That 7.5 total immediately stands out. Lugo can limit damage and Cleveland has gotten quality pitching from Messick. Could be another low-scoring battle.

🎯 LEAN: UNDER 7.5

6️⃣ LAD @ DET

Tyler Glasnow vs Framber Valdez

🔥 One of the best pitching matchups on the slate. Two dangerous offenses, but Glasnow gives LA another high-end arm and I still trust the Dodgers lineup more.

🎯 LEAN: DODGERS ML

7️⃣ SD @ TB

Robbie Ray vs Drew Rasmussen

Rasmussen at home is the pitching side I prefer. Tampa is a sizable favorite despite facing a talented Padres roster, which tells you how much respect this matchup is getting.

🎯 LEAN: RAYS ML

8️⃣ CHW @ MIN

Jordan Hicks vs Zebby Matthews

Not a game where I want to lay much juice either way. Both starters have enough volatility that I’d rather attack the total than pick a side.

🎯 LEAN: OVER 8.5

9️⃣ TEX @ MIL

Kumar Rocker vs Dustin May

Milwaukee continues to be one of the strongest teams on the board. Rocker has plenty of talent, but the Brewers at home are the side I trust more from top to bottom.

🎯 LEAN: BREWERS ML

🔟 PIT @ STL

Braxton Ashcraft vs Matthew Liberatore

Ashcraft has been the much stronger starter this season, while Liberatore enters with a 5+ ERA. Pittsburgh being a slight road favorite makes sense here.

🎯 LEAN: PIRATES ML

1️⃣1️⃣ HOU @ NYM

Ethan Pecko vs Zac Thornton

Two relatively inexperienced arms creates plenty of uncertainty. With a total sitting at 9, I’m more interested in offensive opportunities than trying to pick the winner.

🎯 LEAN: OVER 9

1️⃣2️⃣ BAL @ ATH

Chris Bassitt vs Jeffrey Springs/TBD

Highest total on the slate at 10.5. Baltimore has the lineup I trust more if this turns into the offensive game the market is expecting.

🎯 LEAN: ORIOLES ML

1️⃣3️⃣ PHI @ LAA

Zack Wheeler vs Yusei Kikuchi

⭐️ One of my favorite spots on the board. Wheeler gives Philadelphia the starting pitching edge and I trust the Phillies lineup more over nine innings.

🎯 LEAN: PHILLIES ML

1️⃣4️⃣ CIN @ CHC

Chase Burns vs Shota Imanaga

Great matchup to finish the slate. Burns brings serious strikeout upside, while Chicago gets Imanaga at home. This is one I’d rather be selective with than force.

🎯 LEAN: CUBS ML

━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

🔥 TOP ML LEANS

Phillies ML
Braves ML
Brewers ML
Rays ML
Dodgers ML

📈 FAVORITE OVERS

MIA/WSH — Over 9
CHW/MIN — Over 8.5
HOU/NYM — Over 9
📉 FAVORITE UNDERS
KC/CLE — Under 7.5
SEA/TOR — Under 8

More individual plays + PrizePicks/Kalshi cards coming throughout the day 👀💰

[Grinch Mike @GrinchPicks1]

Not my cleanest day… but we still walked away with some wins 😈💰

🎯 PICK OF THE DAY: 9-1
💵 Kalshi 2X CASHES B2B DAYS
✅ $499.95 → $1,058.42
✅ PrizePicks 6-Man CASH

PrizePicks had me getting hooked by 1-2 legs all day. Frustrating, but that’s part of it.

9-1 on Pick of the Days and the Kalshi 2X keeps printing. We reload tomorrow. 🧪

[Grinch Mike @GrinchPicks1]

Pick of the Day 🎯
Phillies ML. Let’s make it 9-1 😈⚾️

[Grinch Mike @GrinchPicks1]

🔔 PICK OF THE DAY + KALSHI COMBO

⚾ Phillies ML — PICK OF THE DAY
⚾ PHI/LAA Over 3.5 Runs
⚾ Nolan McLean 3+ Ks
⚾ PIT/STL Over 3.5 Runs
🏈 Bears/Titans UNDER 49.5

💰 $499.95 → $1,058.42

Phillies are the main play — threw together a few other spots I like and turned it into a 5-leg combo. Let’s cash. 🍀

[Grinch Mike @GrinchPicks1]

⚾️ MLB SATURDAY CHEAT SHEET — AUGUST 29 📊

Been on a HEATER this past week 🔥

Back again breaking down the entire MLB slate.

Every matchup. Pitching edge. Best spot. Games I’m avoiding.

Save this for tomorrow ⬇️

BOS @ NYY
Jake Bennett vs Carlos Rodón
NYY -120 | O/U 8
Rodón gets the edge for me at home, but Boston has been swinging it well and Bennett has been solid himself. This is much closer than a typical Yankees home spot.
➡️ LEAN: NYY ML — SMALL
LAD @ DET
Blake Snell vs Keider Montero
LAD -186 | O/U 7

Snell has looked excellent since returning, allowing just two runs across his first three starts back. Montero has quietly been very good too with a 3.30 ERA, which makes the low total understandable.

➡️ LEAN: LAD ML
➡️ ALSO LIKE: UNDER

CWS @ MIN
Erick Fedde vs Bailey Ober
MIN -126 | O/U 9.5
Neither starter has been dominant this season — Fedde sits at a 4.18 ERA and Ober at 4.49. That’s why this is one of the few games where the offense interests me more than either side.
➡️ LEAN: OVER
PIT @ STL
Carmen Mlodzinski vs Kyle Leahy
STL -126 | O/U 8

Leahy has been the steadier arm: 10-4 with a 3.13 ERA compared with Mlodzinski’s 4.17 ERA. Pittsburgh has also been struggling to generate consistent offense lately.

➡️ LEAN: STL ML
CIN @ CHC
Andrew Abbott vs Kevin Gausman
CHC -197 | O/U 8.5

Chicago is expensive, but Abbott’s 4.15 ERA/1.40 WHIP profile gives the Cubs plenty to attack. Gausman hasn’t been perfect, but Chicago still has the clearer overall edge here.
➡️ LEAN: CHC ML
SEA @ TOR
Kade Anderson vs José Soriano
TOR -126 | O/U 7.5
This feels more like a pitching/prop game than a side I want to force. Toronto being only a small home favorite tells you the market views this as relatively competitive.

➡️ LEAN: UNDER 7.5
➡️ SIDE: PASS

MIA @ WSH
Sandy Alcantara vs Cade Cavalli
WSH -114 | O/U 7.5

Alcantara enters at 13-8 with a 3.38 ERA, while Cavalli has been even better statistically at 12-5 with a 3.21 ERA and 169 Ks. Really strong pitching matchup, and I don’t see enough separation to chase the side.
➡️ LEAN: UNDER 7.5
➡️ SIDE: PASS
ARI @ SF
Merrill Kelly vs TBD
Hard to handicap this one seriously until San Francisco announces its starter. No reason to guess when we’ll have better information tomorrow.

➡️ PASS FOR NOW

COL @ ATL
Ryan Feltner vs Martín Pérez
ATL -225 | O/U 9

One of the clearest pitching mismatches of the day. Feltner owns a 6.08 ERA, while Pérez sits at 3.12, and Atlanta enters 79-55 compared with Colorado at 52-82.
➡️ LEAN: ATL ML
🔥 ONE OF MY FAVORITE SIDES
HOU @ NYM
TBD/Bennett Sousa vs Nolan McLean
NYM -139 | O/U 8
McLean has put together a very strong year: 9-8, 3.21 ERA and 168 Ks. Houston’s starter situation is less attractive right now, which pushes me toward the Mets at home.

➡️ LEAN: NYM ML

KC @ CLE
Daniel Lynch IV vs Foster Griffin
CLE -157 | O/U 7.5

Two quality lefties: Lynch has a 2.93 ERA and Griffin a 3.19. Cleveland is the bigger market favorite, but with both starters capable of suppressing runs, I prefer the total to laying a big number.
➡️ LEAN: UNDER 7.5
➡️ SECONDARY: CLE ML
SD @ TB
Walker Buehler vs Nick Martinez
TB -135 | O/U 7.5
Tampa owns the stronger season record at 79-54 and is projected around a 58% favorite by numberFire. At a relatively modest price, this is one of the shorter favorites I actually like.

➡️ LEAN: TB ML

BOS @ NYY — GAME 2
TBD vs TBD/Max Fried
This is exactly why I don’t want to force an early pick. Fried is expected to return from the IL Saturday, but New York has not finalized which game he’ll start and Boston’s second-game starter is still unsettled.

➡️ PASS UNTIL STARTERS CONFIRMED
TEX @ MIL
Cal Quantrill vs Shane Drohan
MIL -171 | O/U 8
Milwaukee enters 83-51 and owns one of MLB’s best pitching staffs, while Texas comes in below .500. Quantrill has actually pitched well, though, so I like Milwaukee more as a side than trying to attack Texas offensively.
➡️ LEAN: MIL ML

BAL @ ATH
Shane Baz vs Jack Perkins

This is another matchup I want to see updated lines and lineups on before taking a stance. There are better games on the board to attack.
➡️ PASS FOR NOW

PHI @ LAA
Cristopher Sánchez vs Ryan Johnson
PHI -237 | O/U 8
This might be the best pure mismatch on the slate. Sánchez is one of the strongest strikeout arms going Saturday, and Philadelphia is appropriately priced as a massive favorite.

➡️ LEAN: PHI ML
🔥 TOP-TIER SPOT

MY EARLY TOP 5 SIDES 🔥

1️⃣ Phillies ML
2️⃣ Braves ML
3️⃣ Dodgers ML
4️⃣ Brewers ML
5️⃣ Cubs ML
TOTALS I’M WATCHING 👀
LAD/DET UNDER
MIA/WSH UNDER
KC/CLE UNDER
CWS/MIN OVER
Still waiting on confirmed lineups, late pitching changes and prop boards before locking anything.

Follow along — final plays coming tomorrow. 🤝🔥

[Grinch Mike @GrinchPicks1]

🚨 I’M ON AN ABSOLUTE HEATER. 🚨

$100 → $800 on PrizePicks ✅
$999.99 → $2,090.30 on Kalshi ✅

$2,890 CASHED TODAY. 💰

Ever since I started the Discord, we’ve been absolutely COOKING. 🔥

Picks are posted. Receipts are posted. Results speak for themselves.

And we’re just getting started. 📈

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[Grinch Mike @GrinchPicks1]

Under on Jets vs giants at 52.5
Under on ravens vs commanders at 50.5

[Grinch Mike @GrinchPicks1]

🚨 KALSHI 2X LOCKED IN 🚨

$1,000 ➡️ $2,090 💰

⚾ BRAVES ML — PICK OF THE DAY
Rolling with Atlanta to keep the streak going.

5 legs. MLB + NFL. Keep it simple and LET’S CASH. 🤑