GRQ

[GRQ @GRQ88]

Tail wagging the dog

https://t.co/Qny2lK9SDA

[Bloomberg @business]

One of the hottest AI stocks in South Korea is increasingly being driven by demand for products built on top of it https://t.co/USz0wPpQb0

[GRQ @GRQ88]

@lisaabramowicz1 While main AI players cutting price … it’s over

https://t.co/3R7VpFt3JQ

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

it's over

*OPENAI MULLS SIGNIFICANT CUTS TO WHAT IT CHARGES FOR TOKENS: WSJ

[GRQ @GRQ88]

@citrini It’s over ….

https://t.co/3R7VpFt3JQ

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

it's over

*OPENAI MULLS SIGNIFICANT CUTS TO WHAT IT CHARGES FOR TOKENS: WSJ

[Thierry from arvy 🇨🇭 @ThierryBorgeat]

What keeps me awake at night?

This.

This is one of the oldest froth gauges on Wall Street: the year-over-year change in margin debt. How fast investors are borrowing money to buy stocks.

When it crosses 55%, optimism has gone rampant and people are loading up on leverage in the late innings of a bull market. It has flagged every major top since the 1970s. 1972. 2000. 2007. 2021.

Today it sits at 53.34%.

Not 55 yet. But knocking on the door.

And it doesn't sit alone. Look at everything else lighting up at the same time:

– Margin debt as a share of GDP just hit an all-time high
– 70% of BofA's market-peak signals are triggered, the average seen at prior tops
– South Koreans are cashing out insurance policies at a loss to chase the rally
– Momentum is beating quality by the most since December 1999
– The largest IPO in history is hitting the tape this week

So to answer the question directly.

Is everybody nuts?

Not nuts. Just leveraged, optimistic, and quietly convinced it's different this time. Which is exactly what the late stage of every cycle feels like from the inside.

Froth is never a timing tool. The market can stay irrational, and margin debt can push well past 55%, for far longer than feels possible. People made fortunes in 1999 buying with both hands.

But here's the part worth remembering.

Leverage feels like genius on the way up.

It is the thing that turns a normal correction into a forced liquidation on the way down.

The borrowed money always gets called back.

Usually at the worst possible moment.

#IBDPartner

[GRQ @GRQ88]

https://t.co/oYMa6ppnWH

[Financial Times @FT]

Iran war tightens ‘super-squeeze’ in metals markets https://t.co/Bkbjg1cOLz

[Bloomberg @business]

Shares of Alibaba and https://t.co/IYA4U13sNP slid in Hong Kong after China’s market watchdog reprimanded top Chinese e-commerce players for what it said were misleading sales promotions https://t.co/jrNKxo38fZ

[GRQ @GRQ88]

https://t.co/Y4OcZNzgOi

[Reuters @Reuters]

OpenAI considers drastic price cuts, anticipating war for users with Anthropic, WSJ reports https://t.co/fA2xrBLiPf https://t.co/fA2xrBLiPf

[Thierry from arvy 🇨🇭 @ThierryBorgeat]

This is it.

OpenAI is now considering drastic price cuts to win users from Anthropic, who will likely cut right back. Two companies losing billions, about to compete each other's margins to zero.

Buffett's worst kind of business: one that grows rapidly, devours capital, and earns nothing. He meant airlines. The most important industry of its age, where the customer wins and the shareholder bleeds.

Revolutionary technology and a good investment have never been the same thing.

The internet was real too. Most of the companies building it still went to zero.

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

BOOM

*OpenAI Considers Drastic Price Cuts, Anticipating Costly War For Users With Anthropic -- WSJ

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

The US leveraged ETF market trading volume is exploding:

The total notional trading volume across US-listed leveraged and inverse ETFs surged to $90 billion on Tuesday, the highest on record.

This figure has more than TRIPLED over the last 12 months.

To put this into perspective, this represented ~50% of all assets under management across the entire leveraged and inverse ETF universe.

The 3x leveraged short semiconductor ETF, $SOXS, alone traded over 1.3 billion shares, the 3rd-largest single-session volume for any US-listed ETF over the last 20 years.

This is only behind the 2x leveraged long Nasdaq 100 ETF, $QLD, and the 2x leveraged long S&P 500 ETF, $SSO, both of which set their records during the 2008 Financial Crisis.

Risk appetite has never been higher.

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

From FOMO To Oh No! Koreans Face Massive Forced Liquidations As AI Bubble Bursts https://t.co/Q2EjxajoGn

[GRQ @GRQ88]

@annmarie TACO already

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

Kospi VIX: 88

[GRQ @GRQ88]

@citrini 2nd hand $NVDA chips will then be available as cheap as 🍟

[GRQ @GRQ88]

BYD powers past Geely as oil shock charges up global EV demand
https://t.co/DDJRrGkrsG

Explore our updated app & enjoy a 7-day free trial. New users only. Download now:
https://t.co/RdsXIvG9RU

[GRQ @GRQ88]

https://t.co/buRxecLG8s

[GRQ @GRQ88]

https://t.co/JiRQhtIhzy

[Global Markets Investor @GlobalMktObserv]

‼️South Korean investors are facing massive LIQUIDATIONS:

Forced stock sales from margin loan calls surged to ~300 billion won, or ~$197 MILLION, over the last few trading sessions, the largest reading on record.

This comes as retail margin debt hovers near a record 38 trillion won, or ~$24.9 billion, leaving millions of leveraged retail investors exposed to further forced liquidations as the Kospi Index continues to swing violently.

The Kospi CRASHED -8.3% on Monday, surged +8.2% on Tuesday, then fell -4.5% on Wednesday, with the Korea Exchange temporarily halting program trading on both Monday and Wednesday to prevent automated selling from deepening the declines.

As a result, the Kospi 200 volatility index surged above 90 for the first time on record on Tuesday, underscoring the extreme stress building in one of Asia's most concentrated equity markets.

This comes as Samsung and SK Hynix account for over 50% of the Kospi's total weighting and nearly 75% of its 2026 gains, meaning the entire rally is built on just 2 stocks.

Is the Korean AI market bubble POPPING?

[Reuters Asia @ReutersAsia]

Wang Chuanfu, chairman of BYD, said he expected the Chinese firm to become the world's largest automaker within five years, as he sought to reassure investors following a steep decline in the company's share price. READ MORE: https://t.co/ZfwCnuhSJv