Grumpy Trader

My relationship with the market: complicated. 🤷‍♂️

Charts & opinions, for entertainment purposes only (not financial advice!).

[Grumpy Trader @GrumpyTrader38]

The Philippine Stock Market: A Rigged Game Against the Everyday Juan 🧵👇

If you think the PSE is a fair playing field, you haven’t been paying attention.

Retail investors get trapped, insiders get rich, and regulators look the other way.

Here’s how the system screws you over.

[Grumpy Trader @GrumpyTrader38]

8/ What's your current approach to all this?

Trading around it, sitting on hands, rotating sectors?

Genuinely curious as to what other people are doing.

[Grumpy Trader @GrumpyTrader38]

So the peso recently broke into territory we genuinely haven't seen before. USD/PHP at record levels.

And if you're trading the PSE, you're probably already feeling it.

I figured I'd do a quick thread on what this could actually mean if you currently have positions.

[Grumpy Trader @GrumpyTrader38]

7/ This isn't uniform pain.

Exporters and remittance-linked names have a tailwind right now.

Importers and rate-sensitive plays need tighter risk management, maybe lighter sizing as well.

Peso weakness at this level doesn't resolve in a week. Position accordingly.

[Tom Dante @Trader_Dante]

Keep it slow and steady. It's not a fucking race.

Whilst I know (as I’m sure you do too) that change doesn’t need to be implemented on the first day of a New Year, or your birthday, or the beginning of the week (ad infinitum), there is still something satisfying about beginning during what feels like a logical transition point.

The New Year is perfect for this, but so many people make resolutions and don’t keep to them.

One of the things I’ve found most useful over the years is learning to push myself while also being forgiving. This has been especially important for me as someone who deals with a cocktail of difficulties, including ADHD (where focus can come and then completely go), perfectionist tendencies, and an all-or-nothing mindset.

Remember, almost all of us have issues that we may see as an impediment to our progress. Some of us feel that not having enough capital holds us back. Some of us might have enough capital but have health-related issues that hold us back and make it harder to cope with day-to-day life as easily as others. Still others have none of these issues but perhaps have time constraints due to personal commitments (family and a 9–5 can be a big one). The issues we can face are endless.

But it’s also important to remember that whilst you may feel you have disadvantages compared to the next person, you almost always have advantages over them too, even if you’re not sure exactly what they are.

Maybe you have discipline where they lack it. Maybe you have a support network where they are isolated. Maybe you simply have more drive.

You won’t always know what your edge is over the next person because most people aren’t transparent about themselves and their lives, but I promise you this is true.

You’re never as behind as you think, and you’re never as alone as it feels.

So, to perform better in 2026, you need to think about working to your strengths and coming up with solutions to combat perceived weaknesses.

Brainstorm problems, decide on simple solutions, and go slowly. The adage of becoming 1% better every day is powerful.

You don’t need to do everything perfectly. You just need to do some things a little better than you are doing them already. But be forgiving with yourself. And remember that even when things are going well, refinement still matters.

I’ve often used blunt language as a form of tough love to try and motivate people. But the downside of that is that if you take this name-calling too seriously, you can end up being too judgmental of yourself and possibly hindering your progress.

Allow yourself to be human. We make emotional decisions. We make mistakes. This is fine. The aim is not to never make a mistake, the aim is to make mistakes and learn from them so you don’t end up repeating them over and over again.

So go into this year with intention, patience, and self-respect. Do a few things slightly better than last year, consistently.

I wish you all a healthy, happy, focused, and profitable 2026.

[Grumpy Trader @GrumpyTrader38]

$BLOOM - Price came and tagged resistance (P3.86).

While the first level of support is at P3.64, and I'd likely be watching to see how price reacts IF it hits the level, I personally like a retracement to P3.33 more, and then assessing how the market reacts from there.

[Grumpy Trader @GrumpyTrader38]

What sinks a trader's account/portfolio isn't a losing streak, but the refusal to admit to the mistakes that caused it.

[Grumpy Trader @GrumpyTrader38]

$NIKL - I'm curious to see how price reacts IF we get a pullback into the gray box, w/c coincidentally also aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.

If we get a break above P3.50 prior to the pullback, then the aforementioned level/area becomes less interesting to me.

[Grumpy Trader @GrumpyTrader38]

In trading, edges come and edges go. It's all dependent on market structure and participant behavior.

Be ready to adapt and be quick to change. Never stop honing your edge and looking for new ones.

The market doesn't care about your last win. It only cares about your next move.

[Grumpy Trader @GrumpyTrader38]

@nikkoeee So, for example you want to trade stock Y with these sample parameters:

Entry: P1.00 | Stop-loss: P0.90 | Target: P1.20

With a P100,000 portfolio and the 2% rule, you can risk P2,000.

Your risk per share is P0.10, so you can buy 20,000 shares, spending a total of P20,000.

[Grumpy Trader @GrumpyTrader38]

🇵🇭 Why More Than 90% of Filipino Traders Lose Money

Your kapitbahay who "made 500k on DITO" in 2021?

He's likely down 80% now, working double shifts.

Meanwhile, the quiet guy in accounting could be making 20% yearly since 2018.

The difference? One trades. One runs a business.

[Grumpy Trader @GrumpyTrader38]

@nikkoeee It means to never risk more than 2% (or if you want a higher number for yourself [i.e., 3%, etc.]) of your portfolio on a single trade.

If your portfolio is P100,000, that means your maximum risk is P2,000.

[Grumpy Trader @GrumpyTrader38]

Funny how traders will twist themselves into pretzels trying to make the market fit their narrative instead of just... trading what's actually happening. 🤷‍♂️

[Grumpy Trader @GrumpyTrader38]

The PSE doesn't care about your bills, dreams, or desperation.

But if you treat it like the serious business it is -- with systems, discipline, and respect -- it can fund every dream you have.

Business owners win. Reckless gamblers lose.

Which are you?

[Grumpy Trader @GrumpyTrader38]

13/ YOUR ACTION PLAN:

✍️ Write trading business plan
💰 Open dedicated trading account
💵 Set 2% max risk rule
🔖 Start trading journal
⏲️ Define trading hours
📊 Track performance metrics

Do this or stay broke. Choice is yours.