Greg Guyatt

I follow business and economics as a hobby.

[Greg Guyatt @GuyattGreg]

@SenWarren We need fewer politicians.

[Greg Guyatt @GuyattGreg]

@doughoyes But let's not cut rates...

[Greg Guyatt @GuyattGreg]

@davidportier Yes, it's changed in the last 10 years. Normally it was just self employed people and the elderly, now it's everybody.

[James E. Thorne @DrJStrategy]

For the record.

Canada’s recession is not bad luck, it is a policy choice and the blame sits squarely with Tiff Macklem, not Mark Carney.

By keeping monetary conditions too tight for too long into a tariff‑driven slowdown with inflation already essentially anchored, Macklem has replayed John Crow’s late‑1980s mistake of attacking real estate to prove his anti‑inflation credentials, and in the process turned a manageable adjustment into a made‑in‑Canada recession.

[Greg Guyatt @GuyattGreg]

@DrJStrategy But we won't do any rate cuts...

[Greg Guyatt @GuyattGreg]

@zerohedge LOL. Then both sides claim victory and the oil bubble bursts. Go us!

[Greg Guyatt @GuyattGreg]

News is propaganda

[Marc Nixon @MarcNixon24]

EMBARRASSING

CTV claimed removing all taxes on gasoline would cause inflation to explode 🤯

Because of the increase in demand for gasoline

Pierre Poilievre was SHOCKED
AND I DON’T BLAME HIM

WHAT A TERRIBLE INTERVIEW CTV

[Greg Guyatt @GuyattGreg]

@MBjegovic So much noise and panic. I believe most of this is temporary oil prices spiking due to war. You almost wonder if it's intentional to delay deflation before the mid terms.

[Greg Guyatt @GuyattGreg]

@truflation Short term based on the oil prices and the war or something more sinister?

[James E. Thorne @DrJStrategy]

As Canada’s interest rate–sensitive sectors contract, the Bank of Canada under Tiff Macklem continues to dither. January’s data tell a clear story: headline CPI was flat month-over-month, GDP growth stagnant at 0%, and the economy shed 24,000 jobs. Yet despite this weakness, food inflation surged to 7.3% — including 4.8% for groceries — driven not by an overheating economy but by policy missteps in Ottawa. Even adjusting for last year’s GST holiday base effect, food prices are still rising roughly 6.3%, the highest among G7 nations. The Bank’s refusal to respond appropriately only deepens the damage, compounding the failures of Mark Carney’s misplaced policy legacy. The time to cut rates is now.

[Greg Guyatt @GuyattGreg]

@NewsRadioKIT Eta to clear?

[Greg Guyatt @GuyattGreg]

@DrJStrategy Now do Canada!

[Greg Guyatt @GuyattGreg]

@DrJStrategy The bond yield spike has people excited this morning.

[JD Vance @JDVance]

And with all due respect to my Canadian friends, whose politics focus obsessively on the United States: your stagnating living standards have nothing to do with Donald Trump or whatever bogeyman the CBC tells you to blame.

The fault lies with your leadership, elected by you.

[James E. Thorne @DrJStrategy]

For the record. In Canada r* has significantly declined. Another swing and miss by Mr Macklem.

The neutral rate of interest in Canada has clearly declined in response to shifting trade dynamics and structural changes in the North American economy. Yet the Bank of Canada continues to treat r* as a fixed parameter, ignoring the profound adjustment underway as the economy digests an external rupture. This rigidity reflects flawed policy design and poor communication. Clinging to an outdated estimate of the neutral rate risks overtightening in a disinflationary environment and misjudging the true stance of monetary policy. It is, quite simply, bad policy in action.

https://t.co/EjicoKkXj9

[James E. Thorne @DrJStrategy]

For the record.

Bay Street and BOC economists are catastrophically misreading the crisis unfolding in Canada’s real economy. Their chronic reliance on flawed models and faith in gradualism has left policy utterly out of step with reality: Canadian households and producers are being crushed by recession, with unemployment surging toward 8% in Ontario and Alberta, while manufacturing is gutted by tariff and power cost shocks. Yet the Bay St. consensus still clings to tired forecasts of limited rate cuts and only “subdued” growth, blind to the urgency and depth of structural damage already taking root across the country.

This isn’t just a routine miscalculation, it’s a repeat of the same cognitive failures that led policymakers to wait too long in previous downturns, letting distributive lags compound the harms. With rate cuts taking up to two years to reach full effect, Canada needs to see the overnight rate at 1%, and fast, or risk permanent economic scarring. Bay Street’s and the BOC complacency is not just outdated; it’s actively dangerous in the face of a generational crisis.

https://t.co/2g4Vz6KEqz

[James E. Thorne @DrJStrategy]

@GuyattGreg Watch as unemployment heads to 10%

[Greg Guyatt @GuyattGreg]

@DrJStrategy Thanks James...

[Greg Guyatt @GuyattGreg]

@DrJStrategy Would love you hear your thoughts on the Bank of Canada supposedly thinking 2.25% is the floor?

[Greg Guyatt @GuyattGreg]

@BenRabidoux @BarryMcBride12 Someone smarter than us all should factor in normalizing rents into the equation and I'll bet CPI comes in negative.