Just Some Guy

Practicing the art of long-term investing

[Just Some Guy @GuyFeldm]

@dipinvest Looking forward to it!

[Sawyer Merritt @SawyerMerritt]

Uber CEO in new interview on which approach to autonomy will win: @Tesla’s camera-only or Waymo’s multi-sensor.

"In the near term, I think it's going to be very difficult—and Elon would tell me I'm wrong—to build a camera-only product that has superhuman levels of safety. At some point will it be possible? Quite possible yes; Solid state LiDAR is $500. Why not include LiDAR as well in order to achieve super human safety. All of our partners are using a combination of camera, radar and LiDAR, and I personally think that's the right solution, but I could be proven wrong."

[Just Some Guy @GuyFeldm]

@Jonathan_ben_94 And to think they were once viewed by some as $INVZ main competitor… good times 😂

[Just Some Guy @GuyFeldm]

Some of the most respected long-term thinkers at $KFS, in their search for capital-light, non-cyclical, durable, high-margin recurring-revenue skilled services companies, often seem to arrive at the same conclusion.

Notice a trend?
$WATR.L

[Just Some Guy @GuyFeldm]

$INVZ Big announcement days are always fun and exciting, but what truly matters, and often gets overlooked, is the slow, consistent grind that made this moment possible.
Like with many difficult problems worth solving, progress often starts slowly, and setbacks are inevitable.

But as the GOAT once said:
“Every day, in countless ways, the competitive position of each of our businesses grows either weaker or stronger. If we are delighting customers, eliminating unnecessary costs and improving our products and services, we gain strength. But if we treat customers with indifference or tolerate bloat, our businesses will wither. On a daily basis, the effects of our actions are imperceptible; cumulatively, though, their consequences are enormous.”

With each series production award, platform integration, and product expansion, $INVZ competitive positioning grows meaningfully stronger.

So I congratulate you @InnovizLiDAR @KeilafOmer not just for today’s win, but for showing up every day and continuing to push forward. You deserve it.

[Just Some Guy @GuyFeldm]

Adapting the product to new verticals is certainly not without friction.
I completely agree about the focus and attention required when selling to OEMs — it’s a resource-intensive motion at every level of the organization.
I think it’s safe to assume that these emerging verticals won’t receive nearly the same level of executive mindshare as automotive, at least not initially. I’d expect most of the early push to come from a focused, dedicated sales effort, especially as traction builds and commercial use cases become more defined.

As you said, managing the timing of this expansion is critical... and whether it’s the right time will only be clear in retrospect. But I don’t view the move as a distraction per se — rather, as a calculated extension of existing capabilities, perhaps influenced by current market conditions. As long as execution stays focused and cost control remains disciplined, I think this move makes a lot of sense

[Just Some Guy @GuyFeldm]

This still holds. $ADUR

I don’t mind them taking advantage of the soaring share price to raise capital.

If today’s offering caught you off guard (and you're panicking) you probably haven’t done the work.

Raising funds to advance NGP was bound to happen, and this is likely one of the better-case scenarios

[Just Some Guy @GuyFeldm]

Strategic, knowledgeable, long-term investors in $ADUR won’t give up their stake at a $200M market cap.

In my view, the few hundred thousand shares traded daily are actually strengthening the shareholder base and further tightening an already minimal float.

We’re still in the very early stages of discovery — with barely any analyst coverage, media exposure, or institutional/hedge fund awareness.

The commissioning of NGP later this year marks a key inflection point, one that is set to meaningfully accelerate customer engagement and deepen the market’s understanding of Aduro’s solution.

Time is on our side.

[Just Some Guy @GuyFeldm]

Strategic, knowledgeable, long-term investors in $ADUR won’t give up their stake at a $200M market cap.

In my view, the few hundred thousand shares traded daily are actually strengthening the shareholder base and further tightening an already minimal float.

We’re still in the very early stages of discovery — with barely any analyst coverage, media exposure, or institutional/hedge fund awareness.

The commissioning of NGP later this year marks a key inflection point, one that is set to meaningfully accelerate customer engagement and deepen the market’s understanding of Aduro’s solution.

Time is on our side.

[PMH Capital @CapitalPmh]

#WATR

Often during challenging economic periods, the best companies outperform their rivals by executing well and investing in the long term.

This is exactly the case for @WaterIntelPLC – a ‘one stop shop’ for all things leak detection, repair & preventative maintenance (approx. 2/3rds franchised).

Indeed it is already the largest operator in the US, and today released an in line April YTD’25 trading update – posting turnover and adjusted EBITDA up 8% and 13% respectively to $29.1m & $5.2m. Representing improved EBITDA margins of 17.7% (17.0% LY) due to economies of scale - & a closing net debt to EBITDA ratio of 1.5x, which is comfortable for a high repeat revenue business.

The impressive growth was not only driven by its best-in-class solutions that save water, minimize sewage spills, cut the cost of insurance bills and reduce regulatory fines. But also thanks to its recent StreamLabs Water partnership (part of Chubb Insurance) and the launch of a new seamless Preventive Maintenance service, which proactively manages and stops water leaks for residential, commercial and municipal customers, importantly before they occur.

In fact both of these important initiatives, appear to be already coming through in the numbers - where April saw an encouraging 20% jump in sales compared to 4% in Q1'25. Hopefully this trend will continue, underpinned too by the secular tailwinds of global warming, aging infrastructure & climate change (eg water conservation & stormwater damage), on top of #WATR's broadening channel distribution and sharp execution.

In terms of the numbers, house broker @DowgateCapital is forecasting FY25 turnover, EBITDA, PBT & EPS to come in at $97.0m, $17.5m, $11.2m and 44.3 cents. In turn putting the stock on modest EV/EBITDA, PE and PEG ratios of 6.0x, 10.5x and 0.5x – which frankly appears far too cheap for an economically resilient, growth platform. In comparison, @DowgateCapital have a 850p/share target price.

Executive Chairman, Patrick DeSouza commenting: “We have launched a defining partnership with Chubb/StreamLabs and now have the capability to execute a true integrated platform with operations across the US and overseas. Preventive Maintenance, rather than Reactive Mitigation, is where the industry is headed, both to conserve water and limit the damage from water leakage".

"[Additionally] we remain focused on continuing to grow revenue and profits, while retaining a strong balance sheet with which to execute our competitive strategy.”

Finally the Board is also considering a separate dual listing in the US, and from this month American investors can now purchase shares via Interactive brokers.

Disclosure: I own shares in @WaterIntelPLC , who is also a @VOXmarkets client.

[Just Some Guy @GuyFeldm]

"There are only two kinds of pipes: those that leak, and those that will." $WATR.L

[Just Some Guy @GuyFeldm]

Here's Why:

· Providing an inevitable and highly resilient service
· Cash-generative with strong cash conversion
· A track record of disciplined, serial-acquirer-style capital allocation, with attractive returns on incremental capital and a high reinvestment rate
· Stands out as a national coverage player in a highly fragmented market
· Differentiated value proposition for insurers
· Direct touchpoint with homeowners can be leveraged into a broader range of services and partnerships
· The current scale and earnings power can lead to an acceleration of growth in the coming years

$WATR.L

[Just Some Guy @GuyFeldm]

Here's Why:

· Providing an inevitable and highly resilient service
· Cash-generative with strong cash conversion
· A track record of disciplined, serial-acquirer-style capital allocation, with attractive returns on incremental capital and a high reinvestment rate
· Stands out as a national coverage player in a highly fragmented market
· Differentiated value proposition for insurers
· Direct touchpoint with homeowners can be leveraged into a broader range of services and partnerships
· The current scale and earnings power can lead to an acceleration of growth in the coming years

$WATR.L

[Just Some Guy @GuyFeldm]

First addition to the portfolio in 2025: $WATR.L

[Just Some Guy @GuyFeldm]

First addition to the portfolio in 2025: $WATR.L

[Just Some Guy @GuyFeldm]

@doryehezkek How do you view $HSAI's sensor capabilities in supporting L3+ autonomy compared to competitors (like $INVZ) ? They still classify it as 'ADAS'..

[Omer Keilaf @KeilafOmer]

There are many LiDAR companies that share their specs in ways that you won’t really be able to compare because they will only give you the maximum performance of each metric without telling you that these KPIs are never met simultaneously. For example you could reach very high resolution, but with very low frame rate (over sampling) or very long range with lower resolution or low frame rate again (spending more time on each pixel to gather more photons).
There are also some companies that will show you a video that uses SLAM, which is basically showing you a point cloud on top of a previously recorded / memorised data that is just spatially aligned well. This part refers to the performance of the LiDAR, I believe your mean that. The quality of the LiDAR is something I define differently.

The quality of the LiDAR is in regards to the image quality it provides..This refers to stability of the image, either jitter or just random or systematic noise. It is also related to the range accuracy, the dynamic range of the reflectivity, the pixel separability etc. There are several elements that can cause artefacts to lidars. This could be other lidars, sun, dirt, retro reflectors. The quality of the lidar is determined by KPIs that are less discussed and should.

When you compare televisions you don’t only compare their resolution or size, the image quality is defined by their contrast, color depth and others.

Beware of the SLiDAR companies, they have nice slides, not so much nice lidars 🤭

[Just Some Guy @GuyFeldm]

@pbcinc Interesting.
Could you share a case study where this indicator was proven effective? Incomplete research and people appropriating others' work are prevalent. Why should that correlate with 'being early'?

[Just Some Guy @GuyFeldm]

Well, wasn't that fast 😂

https://t.co/kz4EVYe0qE

[Just Some Guy @GuyFeldm]

The market clearly disagrees with me, but I'm highly skeptical that $LAZR will be a significant or integral part of $NVDA's AV solution, or that they'll capture any meaningful benefits from it.

Don't get your hopes up.

[Just Some Guy @GuyFeldm]

@Jonathan_ben_94 Now everybody knows 🔥