Thurston Howell III

World famous oil, diamond, real estate, and coconut tycoon. Lender of last resort to nation states.

Shipwreck survivor.

Not financial advice.

[Thurston Howell III @HAL9m]

@adamtaggart There are many reasons why gold traders can beat buy and hold. Trading on FOMC releases is one of them.

[Thurston Howell III @HAL9m]

@adamtaggart The MOU makes it 100% clear to anyone paying attention that the USA suffered a devastating strategic defeat.

[Thurston Howell III @HAL9m]

@CliffordAsness Rational strategy for whom? USA or Trump?

[Thurston Howell III @HAL9m]

@adamtaggart What's on the table is not close to a resolution. It's an impasse disguised as a 60-day framework for negotiations.

[Thurston Howell III @HAL9m]

@DavidSacks @signal2noisebtc It was red teamed. Safety has always been probabilistic. The clock is ticking on competing models from adversaries. Patch it and move on.

[Thurston Howell III @HAL9m]

@profplum99 There is an element of choosing the right tool for the job. But, it's not like there is a shortage of nontrivial tasks to put Fable to work on.

[Thurston Howell III @HAL9m]

@ProfessorPape

[Thurston Howell III @HAL9m]

@onechancefreedm Most economists won't stop whistling past the graveyard until they hear from NBER.

[Thurston Howell III @HAL9m]

@TimmerFidelity Good fundamentals on paper. This works as long as the AI narrative doesn't wobble.

[Thurston Howell III @HAL9m]

Conviction works because it's uncomfortable to hold into a steep drawdown. Trimming losses also works, but when the selling accelerates, shorts pile in and sentiment takes a dive, the math favors either stepping aside or being long. Sizing is the only way I know to manage uncomfortable positions that seem illogical or even foolish.

[Thurston Howell III @HAL9m]

@adamtaggart It depends. Give it specific context and ask pointed questions, and it can be a helpful tool. But, ask a broad question with poor guidance and you're just asking for trouble.

[Thurston Howell III @HAL9m]

@profplum99 Tax withholdings seem to confirm HH survey, but OBBBA provisions muddy the picture.

[Thurston Howell III @HAL9m]

@profplum99 d) Fear of it being interpreted as rude to nearby human baristas who may be replaced if the experiment is too successful.

[Thurston Howell III @HAL9m]

@biancoresearch 'Cause' is whatever the president wants it to mean and whatever the court decides that it means. A game of power and influence dressed up like the search for truth.

[Thurston Howell III @HAL9m]

@biancoresearch Famous last words: 'It's different this time. They're making tons of money."

[Thurston Howell III @HAL9m]

@adamtaggart It's only goading if you think that China knows something that the US doesn't, namely that US AI investment won't generate the promised payoff. Experts disagree. Neither side knows the answer well enough to use it to their advantage.

[Thurston Howell III @HAL9m]

Agreed with a caveat. Strong, AI-fueled earnings reflect ongoing circular dealing amongst the largest constituents. This has been a huge tailwind for earnings as companies get rich on paper marking up their investments in each other. The net result is reduced earnings quality and declining FCF. These are red flags in my book.

[Thurston Howell III @HAL9m]

@adamtaggart I think the takeaway is that inflation hits differently and more broadly.

[Thurston Howell III @HAL9m]

@CharlesFLehman @pmarca Good effort but the paper doesn't convincingly address issues with multicollinearity. The basic problem is that AI exposure and WFH are not independent.

[Thurston Howell III @HAL9m]

@adamtaggart My bet is that this document, if it even exists, is nowhere near the 'final draft'.