Facing competition from both open-source ecosystems and closed-source platforms embedded in existing businesses, OpenAI is unlikely to become the dominant winner or a compelling long-term investment on its own.
OpenAI introduced the world to large language models, but history suggests that incumbents with proprietary data and distribution tend to capture the long-term value.
Most investors are missing the opportunities in the “fastest horse” at applying AI to each industry.
Everyone is crowding the sellers of AI, when they should be investing in the buyers of AI using it to get operating leverage and growth.
@BrynTalkington@PerpLEXIty The difference you are feeling is probably because of the orchestration for your specific research use case, not the models themselves.
Just like Netflix vs Cisco, some of the best AI investments from here will benefit as AI becomes better and more affordable, benefiting from the high capex infrastructure buildout funded by other companies.
@AdamBLiv Nothing surprising here. Callable yield notes are sold on hundreds of public securities. Does not mean anything regarding IBIT or JP Morgan specifically.
@EricBalchunas @TheBlock__ Nothing surprising here. Callable yield notes are sold on hundreds of public securities. Does not mean anything regarding IBIT or JP Morgan specifically.
The sellers of AI are preparing for one of the bloodiest and most capital intensive fights in history.
Investors are rushing in, trying to pick the few that will still be standing at the end of this arms race.
But what if the real opportunity lies with the buyers of AI? The companies using it to grow faster and unlock operating leverage?
The buyers of AI will benefit from the sellers driving down prices to compete and pushing adoption higher.
I remind myself of this daily while investing in and building with disruptive technologies like blockchain and AI:
Humans tend to overestimate the impact of a technology in the short term and underestimate its impact in the long term. (Amara’s Law)
This is why we believe the largest impact from applied AI will occur within existing businesses rather than startups — and why we are investing our time, resources, and capital in this thesis.
It is more likely that a company with data and distribution advantages develops an AI advantage than a company with an AI advantage develops data and distribution advantages.
Data and distribution advantages take decades of time and resources to build, whereas AI capabilities can now be developed much faster and more affordably in an increasingly open-source environment.