Karefully Verded 📜

Business, Tech, Politics, Economics, and occassional Troll Hunter. Leading edge Thinkist in this space

[Morningstar, Inc. @MorningstarInc]

We value SpaceX at $63 per share, a 53% discount to the upcoming IPO’s offering price.

Even giving SpaceX the benefit of the doubt in several key forecasts, only the most optimistic ‘Moonshot’ scenario approaches the IPO offering price. https://t.co/ibUZ4lUaWw

[Karefully Verded 📜 @hammerstyle]

Isn’t that just what an active investor would do to protect and improve there odds of a higher return on their investment ? The founders always have the option to pitch to passive firms who just need to win the lottery .

[Clara Gold @Clara_Gold]

I’m backed by Vinod. Every founder who raises from Vinod knows the deal.

Could he try to fire you from your own company if he thinks that’s what the company needs?
Yes. That’s not a secret. We even joke about it.

But making this entire drama about “firing founders” misses the point.

The point is that Vinod will always make the call he believes is right for the company, no matter how uncomfortable it is.

And there are 2 sides to that coin.

If he thinks you’re in the way, he’ll move you.
If he believes the company should win and you’re the person to make it win, he’ll move mountains for it. He’ll pull strings, take the hard fights, and push harder than almost any investor would.

The ruthlessness that makes him dangerous is the ruthlessness that makes him exceptional.

That’s the deal with him. Vinod is not founder-first, he’s company-first. And if that makes your uncomfortable, you should probably pitch someone else.

[mariana Z @mariana057]

Male bees die after mating. That's basically their life.

Honey. Nut. CHEERIO

[Karefully Verded 📜 @hammerstyle]

This dude is unreal. Manus acquisition got blocked and he thinks Meta can build it all in house with talent that hates him for his incompetence.

[CapexAndChill @CapexAndChill]

Chief AI Officer Alex Wang is subtly confirming that $META's previous AI paradigm failed, and they are executing a strategic shift to close their ecosystem, capture personal data, and build a regulatory moat.

For the last few years, Meta’s entire strategy was to open-source frontier-level models like Llama 2 and 3 to commoditize the foundational layer. Now that Meta is building highly lucrative Personal Agents, they are keeping their best tech proprietary.

[dolan. @ericwdolan]

@curious_founder classic $10k racing bike with a $9 lock

[Karefully Verded 📜 @hammerstyle]

Aswath bringing a space 🚀 company closer to earth’s orbit rather than the galaxy scale it thinks it’s operating at #spacex

[Aswath Damodaran @AswathDamodaran]

I valued SpaceX for its IPO a few weeks ago, with minimal information and a promise to revisit the valuation, when the prospectus was made public. The prospectus is public, the offering price has been set and my update is up and running. https://t.co/zRjpD1C0wv

[claude shannon @catpoopburglar]

@devahaz it’s amazing that every company has highly restrictive employment agreements about how everything you come up with is the company’s property for everyone except the CEO

[Karefully Verded 📜 @hammerstyle]

.@SFMTA_Muni and @Parkmobile welcoming advanced tech to San Francisco by disabling tap to pay and bring back physical cards back in fashion

[Karefully Verded 📜 @hammerstyle]

This should be great for fundamental indexes like RAFI or Wisdom Tree to have their moment. $spcx

[Hedgeye @Hedgeye]

Rule changes for the SpaceX $SPCX IPO:

Index providers waived the profitability requirement and cut the seasoning window from 90 days to 5.

This forces over $30 trillion in passive 401k and retirement money to buy SpaceX at IPO valuations.

Bloomberg Intelligence estimates S&P 500 funds must absorb 19% of SpaceX's float within 6 months.

Russell 1000 and Nasdaq 100 funds will absorb 24%.

The rules built to protect passive investors:

1. S&P 500 has required 12 months of trading and 4 quarters of GAAP profitability since 2002. Both waived.

2. Nasdaq cut its inclusion window from 90 trading days to 15.

3. FTSE Russell cut its to 5.

All three benchmarks are now structured to buy SpaceX at IPO pricing.

[Karefully Verded 📜 @hammerstyle]

@mikulaja @BiltRewards @ankurjain_2 Didn’t they migrate to Column?

[Jafar 🐌🍁 @jay_d_moos]

if the canadian passport is so valuable that you don't want to lose it, why campaign to leave? this is quebec nationalism all over again but somehow it's even dumber

[Collin Rugg @CollinRugg]

New Yorkers with 16 or more speeding violations will now have to install devices in their cars to limit their driving speeds.

The device will use GPS tracking to restrict how fast the car can drive to the posted speed limit.

The device will be wired into the vehicle's onboard computer.

If drivers refuse to install the device, their registrations will be revoked after 45 days.

[Duncan Kinney @duncankinney]

i think alberta separatists are under the impression that canada is under some obligation to be nice to them in the unlikely event they are successful.
taking away your canadian passport is one of the smallest consequences canada can impose.

[Andrew Leach 🇨🇦 @andrew_leach]

The Keystone pipeline has had regulatory approval on the Canadian side since 2010. The regulatory uncertainty came from the US, not from Canada, on this line. Come on, Premier, even you know this.

[Karefully Verded 📜 @hammerstyle]

@agaradecki @pitdesi @knowclarified Regulated and capped, hence the lower rates

[Karefully Verded 📜 @hammerstyle]

This feels like Lemonade and Metromile all over again with none of the insurance expertise, all of the risk, and valuations that defy gravity more than Disney’s musical

[TechCrunch @TechCrunch]

Corgi announces $106M raise at $2.6B valuation — triple what it was worth three weeks ago https://t.co/CRE4bZJKkD

[Karefully Verded 📜 @hammerstyle]

@steph_palazzolo Just hire an agency. Money is obviously not the problem

[Eric Balchunas @EricBalchunas]

Passive S&P 500 funds could have to buy roughly 19% of public SpaceX shares within 6mo under fast-tracking framework (it would enter the index at the est 6th spot), Russell 1000 and Nasdaq 100 may buy another 5.5% within weeks of the IPO. Thrown in active MFs benchmarked to those indices and you get to HALF of SpaceX shares. Nice study from my colleague @rduboff

[Karefully Verded 📜 @hammerstyle]

They are getting desperate to justify Alexandr Wang’s role and Scale AI’s acquisition price. Almost feels like he is the one man version of DOGE operating at Meta

[Gergely Orosz @GergelyOrosz]

Never heard so many standout infra engineers + AI infra eng actively wanting to leave Meta than now.

A month ago they were building cutting-edge infra and then got assigned to AI data labelling

Most of them went “WTH” and now I’m the middle of interviewing

Madness from Meta

[Karefully Verded 📜 @hammerstyle]

@RohitPaulK They dont want to be responsible for blocking legit transactions by making their rules too aggressive. Unfortunately, clients have to set them up on day 1.