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Comic Artist | مؤلفة ورسامة | قراءة ممعته للقصص🤗🌷💕 الرابط :

[Lin @Speculator_io]

A few tips for beginner investors:

1) Never buy a stock in a Stage 4 downtrend.
2) Never buy a stock below its 200-day moving average.
3) Focus on the leaders, not the laggards.
4) If it seems too good to be true, it probably is.
5) In a bull market, be long.
6) Hope is not a strategy.
7) Being wrong is okay, staying wrong is unacceptable.
8) To generate alpha: make more or lose less.
9) Always know when to get out before you get in.
10) There are only a few periods in the year to make money.
11) Protect your financial and emotional capital.
12) Don't make decisions out of fear or greed.
13) Don't fall for value traps; valuations are a terrible timing indicator.
14) Forget buy and hold; it's buy, hold, and check.
15) Follow your own strategy.
16) Small losses and quick losses are the best losses.
17) Learn to sell.
18) If you don't sell early, you'll sell late.
19) The big money is made from two or three opportunities each year.
20) Patience.
21) Do more of what's working for you and less of what’s not.
22) When you experience big losses, take time off.
23) Get aggressive when things are working; get defensive when things are not.
24) Fight on the side of the market that is winning.
25) Don’t pick the bottom and don’t call tops.
26) Focus on stocks making new highs; new highs are where the money is.
27) Respect the other side of the trade; know both sides.
28) Never argue with the market.
29) Stack the odds in your favor.
30) You don’t need to be right all the time to make money.
31) Get comfortable being wrong.
32) It’s not how much you make, it’s how much you keep.
33) Write down why you bought and sold a stock.
34) Keep it simple.
35) Charts don't lie.
36) Never buy a stock on recommendations.
37) Do your diligence.
38) Every bull market ends, just as every bear market does.
39) High performance is a function of skill and luck; and luck comes and goes.
40) Timing is everything.
41) Bend with the trend.
42) Never average losers.
43) When in doubt, get out.
44) Don’t listen to the news, listen to the market.

Hope this helps.

[Lin @Speculator_io]

The best time to spot leaders is during a correction.

They stand out.

Look for stocks that have corrected the least during the decline or are even making new highs. Avoid the ones that have fallen the most.

The strongest stocks now are usually the biggest winners later.

You'll never know when you're at a market bottom, so you have to focus on how individual stocks act.

The best tell is seeing strength across many stocks. Not just one or two names.

Ideally, you want to see a proliferation of setups.

[Lin @Speculator_io]

Don't try to catch a falling knife.

If you want to buy the dip, wait for the immediate trend to turn around.

Nobody knows how deep the correction will go. When the market is in free fall, trying to catch the exact bottom can be a really costly and often destructive habit.

The best thing to do is to wait for some confirmation of a trend reversal:

• A higher low
• Holding a key support level
• Reclaiming a key moving average

Of course, that’s still not a guarantee it will work, but it increases the odds of success and is a simple way to manage risk.

If the bottom is in, it shouldn’t drop below the recent low. But if it does, there’s likely more downside ahead.

[Lin @Speculator_io]

Stock picking is overrated.

Anyone with half a brain can pick stocks in a roaring bull market.

It's only after a massive drawdown or blowing up that you realize it comes down to three things:

1. Risk management
2. Position sizing
3. Psychology

[Lin @Speculator_io]

It's all about the 200 SMA.

As long as the markets stay above it, there's nothing major to worry about.

If they break below, that's when you need to pay attention.

Nobody knows if this is just a bounce or the next leg of the bull market. But the risk-reward is good enough to give it the benefit of the doubt.

The downside is limited.

The 200 SMA is your line in the sand. If it holds, great. If not, get out.

It’s a simple way to manage risk.

[Lin @Speculator_io]

Corrections create opportunities.

But blindly buying the dip is not a strategy. While it works sometimes, it's rare to see the same leaders take over again once they've topped.

• $SMCI topped in March
• $CELH $ANF topped in May
• $NVDA $MSTR topped last November
• $PLTR $HIMS topped in February

There will be new leading sectors and stocks emerging from a correction.

The key is to track what held up best while the market fell. Look for signs of accumulation. Look for stocks showing relative strength.

[Lin @Speculator_io]

I've seen this way too many times...

1. Sees a stock pumping
2. Buys at the top with FOMO
3. Watches it crash
4. Thinks it's a generational opportunity
5. Buys the dip
6. It keeps dipping
7. Rage-quits at the bottom

[Lin @Speculator_io]

We're seeing clear signs of a market top:

• Crypto has been decimated
• Climax tops in retail favorites: $PLTR $HIMS
• Most of the Mag 7 are in Stage 3 or Stage 4
• Speculative names like quantum, space, nuclear, and drones rolled over
• Flight to safety: bonds, gold, cash, defensive names
• Markets are moving down even on good news
• Lots of distribution days
• Semiconductors topped last July $SOXX $NVDA
• $SPY $QQQ have been choppy for three months
• News is driving the markets
• And tons of volatility

As mentioned weeks ago, there’s no reason to be aggressive on the long side. It's time to be defensive. Protect your profits, raise cash, and be patient.

This might just be a temporary top, but no one knows how deep it’ll go or how long it’ll last. I’m confident great opportunities will come, but for now, it’s important not to force trades.

On the other hand, there are compelling opportunities on the short side for those inclined to take them. Otherwise, cash is your friend.

[Lin @Speculator_io]

Some of the biggest winners this year are European defense stocks:

YTD Performance:
$HAG Hensoldt +93.23%
$RENK Renk +92.69%
$RHM Rheinmetall +87.13%
$IVG Iveco +72.25%
$LDO Leonardo +70.97%
$THAL Thales +59.39%
$SAAB Saab +53.45%
$BAB Babcock +45.07%
$FCT Fincantieri +44.01%
$BA BAE Systems +40.07%
$RYCEF Rolls-Royce +38.95%
$SAF Safran +23.28%
$AIR Airbus +11.01%
$QQ QinetiQ +8.66%

[Lin @Speculator_io]

Everyone has been conditioned to buy the dip.

That’s because buying the dip has paid off greatly over the last two years. The market bailed everyone out. But the one time it doesn’t work is when you'll get into a lot of trouble.

Always manage risk.

[Lin @Speculator_io]

Risk happens fast.

All the theme stocks from last year got crushed:
Crypto, quantum, space, drones, nuclear, etc.

Most have no fundamentals and trade purely on momentum and narratives. There’s nothing wrong with playing them. But you need an exit strategy.

Sentiment can turn fast.

If the story fades or macro conditions shift, they collapse just as fast as they ran up.

We've seen it before:
SPACs, EVs, metaverse, 3D printing, meme stocks, you name it.

The pattern doesn’t change, just the names.

As Jesse Livermore said: "Don't become an involuntary investor."

So, cut your losses quickly.
And never let a big gain turn into a loss.

Stocks down from the highs:
$QUBT -74.70%
$ARQQ-74.16%
$KULR -72.31%
$EVTL -71.54%
$ONDS -69.12%
$CLSK -67.76%
$MARA -63.33%
$SERV -60.74%
$WULF -60.65%
$BTBT -57.14%
$RGTI -56.02%
$RCAT -55.34%
$CIFR -48.94%
$APPS -47.67%
$QS -47.48%
$QBTS -45.22%
$RDW -44.52%
$IONQ -44.52%
$SMR -44.06%
$HIMS -44.05%
$LTBR -41.66%
$OKLO -40.68%
$NNE -38.46%
$RIVN -38.34%
$JOBY -36.85%
$RKLB -36.53%
$ACHR -33.33%
$LUNR -32.46%
$ASTS -25.83%

[Lin @Speculator_io]

One of the hardest lessons for most is learning to do absolutely nothing.

You’d think it would be easy, but it’s not.

When a stock is moving, everyone feels the urge to buy or sell. Few can just sit there, watch without acting, and wait until the conditions are right.

[Lin @Speculator_io]

Everyone is a genius in a bull market.

The last two years were easy. Buy anything, and it went up. But that is over. If you think the same strategy will keep working, you’re about to learn the hard way.

Bull markets make people forget how to manage risk.

[Lin @Speculator_io]

The biggest losses come from holding onto a small loss, hoping it'll bounce back to break even. But instead, it keeps falling.

[Lin @Speculator_io]

How to Identify a Top by William O’Neil

[Lin @Speculator_io]

Selling is hard.

Because there is no right way to sell.

You'll always feel stupid. Either you sell too early and the stock goes higher. Or you sell too late and it goes lower.

It's not about nailing the exact top or bottom.

What matters is following your strategy.

Sometimes, that means locking in gains while a stock still has room to run. Other times, it means cutting losses before they get out of hand.

The goal is consistency.

[Lin @Speculator_io]

All leading sectors and stocks rolling over together is a clear red flag.

Social: $RDDT $META
Space: $RKLB $RDW $ASTS $PL
Nuclear: $OKLO $NNE $CEG $SMR
FinTech: $HOOD $OPFI $DAVE $AFRM
Software: $PLTR $DOCS $APP $TEAM
Consumer: $DASH $EAT
E-Commerce: $SHOP $GLBE $SE
Cybersecurity: $NET $FTNT $CRWD $CYBR $RBRK

Always manage risk.

[Lin @Speculator_io]

Volatility is back.

The market is all over the place—failed breakouts, big swings up and down, and headlines driving the action.

In a choppy market, less is more.

Cut exposure, build cash, and wait until the conditions are in your favor.

[Lin @Speculator_io]

This is still not the right market environment to be aggressive:

• Lots of volatility
• No clear trend
• Setups worsening
• No follow-throughs
• Blow-off tops
• Leading names giving in
• Break-outs not holding
• Risk-on assets selling off

[Wasteland Capital @ecommerceshares]

People need to stop shorting popular, dumb & fake companies on their way up. Piling into obvious shorts just makes them go higher, as short covering begets new, real buying. Why won’t people learn this lesson?

Just wait for them to break down. The event. Then it’s easy pickings.