Harnzer

Trading & Crypto.

Retweets mostly used as archives / reminders

[Bb @bitbitcrypto]

https://t.co/3ZmrpG1SfS

[Harnzer @Harnzer]

@torchthemall_ @kingbtc Got the same one. Worked great for 10gbps

[jez (equity perps era) @izebel_eth]

thanks for everything eth, even if i dont own u anymore

[Avi @AviFelman]

Never before have we been able to trade everything under the sun. Attention is now fractured, which means opportunity is quite literally everywhere -- all you have to do is pay attention

[primordial intelligence @primal_brainer]

The older you get, the more you realize luck is mostly exposure.

If you sit in the same place, have the same routine, talking to the same people, nothing new really happens.

You have to tackle the world to win.

Travel more. Talk to people. Try a breakfast spot. Post on social media. Start a side hustle or a hobby.

The world rewards motion. You don't find opportunity sitting still.

[𝔰𝔱𝔬𝔫 𓆏 @stonXBT]

week ahead game plan.

trump's 48hr hormuz ultimatum expires monday night. iran responded by going harder, not softer. "completely close" the strait, shift from defensive to offensive, hit vital infrastructure. this is the most binary 24hrs of the conflict so far.

don't position ahead of the deadline. by tuesday you'll know which regime you're trading.

scenario 1: strikes on iranian power plants. oil $120+. energy and tankers rip. gold sells off further on rate repricing. equities gap down.

scenario 2: trump blinks or delays. relief rally in risk, oil pulls back toward $100. airlines bounce. but hormuz stays closed and the structural damage to ras laffan is done regardless.

either way, cheniere (LNG) wins. qatar's lng export capacity down 17%, repairs measured in years not months. us lng fills the gap. this is the cleanest asymmetric setup on the board right now.

gold at $4,495 after crashing from $5,400. the paradox: war drives oil, oil drives inflation, inflation keeps the fed hawkish, hawkish fed kills gold despite the geopolitical bid. don't catch the knife. $4,200-4,400 is where it gets interesting.

btc $69k, trading as a risk asset with 0.55 correlation to spx. not a hedge. not interesting until $58k.

the pmi prints monday are the first real read on how the war is hitting activity. a sub-50 manufacturing print with elevated services inflation is the stagflation confirmation nobody wants.

pce friday is the week's most important data point. if it's hot, the last remaining 2026 cut dies.

stay flat until the binary resolves. the market will still be here wednesday.

[Horse @TheFlowHorse]

https://t.co/wWymzfkPvJ

[Horse @TheFlowHorse]

While I have to admit I find it more compelling to understand how the grand machine works as I get older, I remind myself that I have traded best when I ignore the things I have no area of competence in and just focus on price and positioning. More information is usually just a mirage for more confidence or more edge. In many cases it just adds noise.

Style drift is very dangerous. Stay in your lane.

[Insilico Terminal @InsilicoTrading]

Insilico Terminal Advent Calendar - Day 24 🎄

Today’s drop: Conditional orders and Algorithms on Server (Beta)

This feature enables server-side execution and unlocks:
- Set conditional orders that are placed automatically when defined conditions are met. Conditions can be based on price, time, candlestick close, or candlestick volume, with full AND/OR logic support across all order types.
Example: “Start a chase buy order when the BTC 15m candle closes above 89k and the time is after 30/12/2025.”
- Chase, TWAP, and all other order types continue running even when the browser is closed.
- Support for longer TWAP durations, up to 30 days.
- Full order history synchronized across devices.

Currently available on Hyperliquid, Bybit coming next. More exchanges to follow and feature expansions to follow.

Comment below how you would use these features for your trading to have a chance for beta access; access will be rolled out gradually.

[Temu Robot James @ScottPh77711570]

If you trade technical analysis, you owe it to yourself to think deeply on this series of questions

What happens is you learn something (I learned TA once), you have a few wins or losses, sunk cost biases kick in and it’s hard to change your opinion without feeling a dick

[Tradeboi Carti @tradeboicarti16]

This quant debate is misleading. If you trade S&P futures or fx through a broker, you stand zero chance of making over long term. Firms pay big $ for CME seats and/or routing, and they are mostly quants. Same applies for btc or MMing crypto.

If most of CT was patient and just invested instead of day trading stocks, they would have a better chance.

If you want to day trade there is so much more that goes into it besides line on chart. Have a strat and stick to it. CT is obsessed with big money quick. Spread trades or mean reversion is more consistent and easier to compound than long/short as a manual discretionary trader. Your emotions will destroy you before you make $.

Amongst all the CT traders i know personally, only 1 manual discretionary trader has been consistent YOY since i joined in 2016 and it’s @bitbitcrypto. I imagine there are more but i don’t know them. He never did insider bs or ICOs, just clicked. Other profitable guys had an edge that was either illegal or grey area and it eroded quick since say 2023 to today. Horse utilizes stats and ordeflow, that’s diff than simply clicking, and he did it early.

CT traders pivoting to stocks could be seen as a bottom signal like the 2018 rush, but also traders seek liquidity since 10/10. Crypto is an empty market if you zoom in.

[Kris Sidial🇺🇸 @Ksidiii]

Trading psychology is one of those topics that’s endlessly debated. Plenty of people dismiss it outright and insist it doesn’t matter. For me, it’s been one of the biggest drivers of my success. Once you’ve come across strategies with real alpha, the challenge shifts from discovery to preservation. This means maintaining that edge and knowing when to press the gas and when to let off the gas. That ultimately comes down to statistically grounded evidence paired with psychological discipline in your process especially during the bad times.

I’ve been obsessed with this game for more than 15 years. And have practically dedicated my life to the art of what it is. That obsession shows up in the small, often unglamorous things I do to make sure I’m operating at my best when it counts.

Those “small things” include constantly reviewing strategy performance, spending time on idea generation and optimization, digging into alternative data sources, and revisiting old edges and understanding why they stopped working and what conditions might bring them back. It also means going to conferences, understanding who’s doing what and why, identifying the top players in the space and studying their behavior/ tendencies/ thought process, and just as importantly, understanding what the weakest players are doing and where and why they tend to fail.

Some of the external aspects may sound like cliché fitness/ health -social media nonsense (which is why I’m hesitant to share them), but it’s hard to argue that you can consistently make sound, second by second decisions involving hundreds of millions of dollars while running on two hours of sleep. There is a point of optimality that you can bring your mind and body to.

The broader point is simple, in any serious craft, success comes from the work you put in outside of the baseline effort that everyone else is willing to do. Baseline efforts will always yield baseline results.

[Horse @TheFlowHorse]

If I could RT @stoicsavage I would, but I think the issue isn’t the volatility, it is that it is more sporadic, and that the A+ trades just aren’t showing up as often. You take these trades and feel underserved. And the mental fatigue of sitting around in between, watching chop, is harder to justify when there aren’t a bunch of other clean, interesting opportunities to offset it in the same sandbox. Especially when you can find similar returns right now doing equally simple, knuckle-dragger trades in other markets.

[Tom Dante @Trader_Dante]

I’d say a big part of me, personally, being profitable, is I couldn’t give a shit whether I trade or not on a particular day.

If you want to trade, you tend to try harder to actively find trades and I always found that to be counterproductive to my performance.

You usually know this is your problem if you review your performance and end up thinking “what did I take that trade for?!”

I know there will be a few clear, high probability opportunities each week and they’re usually remarkably obvious and you know exactly why you did them and don’t regret them, even if they go wrong.

[Harnzer @Harnzer]

@veH0rny hi

[Worst Contrarian - BACK OFFICE @ LARP CAPITAL @larpcapitalwc]

when looking into a new strategy/trade etc i kinda think the worst thing you can do is just sit at the desk and obsess over it

yes you need to do your homework but there is a point of diminishing returns, go for a walk, read a book and just let the concept marinate in your brain

[Worst Contrarian - BACK OFFICE @ LARP CAPITAL @larpcapitalwc]

anyone have any good trading book recommendations ?

im gonna make a thread with a few

im looking for some new stuff to read so please comment

[Aporia @0xaporia]

Trading has a way of revealing that humans fail at different ends of the spectrum.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ Some are incorrigible optimists who mistake their own enthusiasm for insight, convinced that opportunity is everywhere if you just look hard enough. They live in a perpetual state of discovery, where every insight feels profound until it (once again) is not.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ Others are analytical perfectionists who believe complex problems yield to sufficient analysis, as if understanding were simply a matter of thinking hard enough. They mistake intellectual sophistication for practical wisdom.

The middle path requires accepting something most people find psychologically intolerable: that in any sufficiently competitive domain, genuine advantages are vanishingly rare and brutally difficult to sustain. Success comes not from cleverness or confidence, but from the discipline to distinguish between what you hope is true and what you can actually demonstrate.

[Harnzer @Harnzer]

@insiliconot Walk down kamo river was nice, did that yesterday