Harry Colvin

[Longview Economics @Lvieweconomics]

Things that make you go Hmmm!

Here's a chart to get you thinking...

US 'CCC rated and lower' spreads vs. US high yield corporate spreads.

A highly unusual divergence in their trend in recent months.

Financial conditions are clearly tightening for parts of the corporate sector. Meanwhile, the overall HY index sails on at (almost) record multi decade tight levels.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: China's President Xi has warned President Trump of a "collision or even clashes" if the Taiwan situation is "mishandled," per Bloomberg.

China is looking for the US to clarify that Washington does not support Taiwanese independence.

[Longview Economics @Lvieweconomics]

Last week Chris had the pleasure of speaking with @JesseFelder about ‘How to Make Money in Markets’.

Their wide-ranging conversation on the podcast, included sections on ‘value investing’, the ‘Insider BUY-SELL ratio’ and various other fundamental, ‘technical’ and macro techniques for investing and picking stocks.

Jesse is the Author of The Felder Report. He also co-founded a multi-billion-dollar hedge fund in the late 90s, worked at Bear Stearns and runs the well-known finance podcast “Super Investors…and the Art of Worldly Wisdom”.

https://t.co/eBbIir1jUY

@LongviewEcon

[Longview Economics @Lvieweconomics]

Employment amongst small firms in the US (1-49 employees) hasn’t grown for 9 months!
Small companies = backbone of US economy.
How worried should we be?

[Longview Economics @Lvieweconomics]

Goldilocks ISM report for equities today – with a sharp fall in prices paid (and headline reading above 50)

[Longview Economics @Lvieweconomics]

The ISM employment outlook for March - still convincingly below 50 (combined – for both manufacturing and services). Usually that’s consistent with a soft patch – if not the start of recession. Cuts are coming.

[Longview Economics @Lvieweconomics]

Very bearish chart.

Finding good ‘quality labour’ is no longer a problem in the US.

Sharp increase in labour supply is underway (as per today’s NFIB report).

Not what a soft landing looks like

[Longview Economics @Lvieweconomics]

The ISM employment index (services & manufacturing blended) just made a new low…

Weakest reading since September 2020.

Troubling for the bulls! ☹

[Harry Colvin @Harry_Colvin]

@Lvieweconomics Powerful chart

[Longview Economics @Lvieweconomics]

More evidence today that US companies want to cut back on jobs…

Weakest hiring plans since covid.

[Longview Economics @Lvieweconomics]

Headline ISM manufacturing has now been below 50 for 16 consecutive months… One of the most prolonged downturns on record.

[Longview Economics @Lvieweconomics]

UK house prices have stabilised, and mortgage credit availability is up…. But transactions are still on the floor (see chart) – and below the covid lows (just).

I.e. proper housing recovery unlikely without much lower mortgage rates.

[Longview Economics @Lvieweconomics]

Despite everyone’s fears about a ‘toppy market’, this model (single stock approach) suggests there’s likely more upside.

Major pullbacks in the past decade have almost always been foreshadowed by lots of stocks making 52 week highs!

That hasn’t happened in this run (i.e. since October last year).

[Christopher Snowdon @cjsnowdon]

Your annual reminder that the clocks should have gone forward yesterday. Instead, we have to wait another seven weeks. Absolutely unacceptable.

[Chris Watling @LongviewEcon]

Such a great chart

HT @Lvieweconomics @Harry_Colvin

[Chris Watling @LongviewEcon]

Voila!

#Euro #Dollar

[Longview Economics @Lvieweconomics]

Rates market is pricing cuts for 2024... Yet equity analysts are forecasting for 12% earnings growth.

But there’s not one example in the past 50 years when there’s been a combination of both (i) growing earnings and (ii) a Fed rate cutting cycle…

So which is right?

[Chris Watling @LongviewEcon]

says it all!

[Adam Taggart @adamtaggart]

Those who don't study history...

[Harry Colvin @Harry_Colvin]

PLUS – sterling is a crowded long. Positioning and macro align (2/2).

[Harry Colvin @Harry_Colvin]

Proportion of UK CPI sub components rising by more than 0.3% M-o-M fell sharply last month. I.e. the underlying inflation trend is v weak. Typically leads core CPI Y-o-Y by a few months (1/2).