Harshit Toshniwal

Developing public pool of sector deep dives to help India invest
YT - Invest, Jefferies, I-Sec

[Aseem Dhru @aseemdhru]

An Unconditional Bad Ifea

Weekends I think about economic matters. Usually I keep these notes to myself sometimes I let you the readers suffer.

Unconditional cash transfers aka freebies aka revdis are now taking serious proportions.

The economic survey 2026 puts them at Rs. 1.7 trillion in FY26. In some states they are now approaching 10% or their budgetary expenses. When 62% is already on salaries pension and interest payments these are coming at the cost of developmental spends.

It is estimated to account for 40-50% of monthly consumption expenditure of half of rural population!

The Supreme Court has also raised objections to these eve of the election announcements. Free cycle, electricity, ration, TV, bus transport, money in a woman’s account.

States failed to deliver quality education, healthcare, infrastructure and corruption free ease of doing business and are now across party lines simply buying votes from tax payers money.

I have two quarrels with this.

One is the way in which it is funded. The politician isn’t paying this out of their money, effectively a certain segment of population will be taxed or monies will be borrowed and then future generation will bear the cost.

The second is it destructs the moral fibre, dignity and incentive to work. China a supposed communist country gave no freebies. A generation bore hardships to lift the nation. The American Dream wasn’t delivered by the government but people who worked hard to lift their lot.

Ludwig Mises an Austrian economist said, “Where there is no free market, there is no pricing mechanism; without a pricing mechanism, there is no economic calculation."

Who do you think pays for free or subsidised electricity? Industry does and that makes manufacturing uncompetitive.

Politicians across the world are promising to “fix” healthcare, interest rates, energy prices, universal basic income, housing.

The Soviets, Chinese, Venezuelan, Yugoslavians have tried to address these issues with central planning and spectacularly failed now under the old wine has arrived in a shiny new bottle of democratic socialism.

Politicians have to win elections but the laws of economics don’t care about their compulsions. We are hurtling down a path that been tested repeatedly but with the same end.

There is no such thing as a free anything. There is always a price and if it’s not direct it’s always worse. Price in kind is always worse than cash. These unconditional cash transfers are an unconditional bad idea. Unfortunately it’s a bad idea, whose time has come.

[InVed® Research @InVed_Research]

⚡️Copper Winding Wires: The Backbone of India’s Electrification & Power T&D Boom.

Webinar Link: https://t.co/dfGPmwuKLF

💻Join our upcoming webinar to decode the electrification supply chain beyond the obvious names.

This session will focus on:
> Structural demand growth visibility.
> Input cost pass-through & operating leverage.
> Entry barriers and ROCE profiles.
> Investment implications across the value chain.

Copper winding wires are a non-negotiable input for transformers, motors, generators, EVs, and grid infrastructure. With India committing trillions to Power T&D and electrification, this segment stands at the intersection of capex, electrification, and manufacturing scale-up.

Sunday, 11 January 2025.
11.00 am - 01.00 pm.
Online ZOOM Session.

[Harshit Toshniwal @Harshitt93]

@Iamsamirarora How was the book sir?

[Harshit Toshniwal @Harshitt93]

Meesho’s logistics cost of 40/order way lower than Delhivery’s 60/order.

By understanding its customers are okay with 5-6 day delivery vs Delhivery which is optimised to do 2-3 day delivery.

Great insights @prachisomani21

Link to note -
https://t.co/zdM5v6rkZL

[Harshit Toshniwal @Harshitt93]

@valueinvesting4 Thank you, glad that you liked it!

[Shashwat Goenka @shashwatgoenka]

The joy of India hitting 125 GW solar capacity, and becoming the world’s third-largest producer, is something we can all celebrate. Announced by Union Minister Pralhad Joshi, it also marks crossing the 50% mark in non-fossil electricity capacity, achieving renewable goals nearly five years early!

At @rpsggroup, we’re proud to play our part in this exciting clean energy journey. With renewables overtaking thermal globally and India’s clean energy growing fast, this is more than just a milestone…it’s a clear signal that a sustainable, resilient future is within reach.

Kudos to the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE) and Minister Joshi for leading the way.

@JoshiPralhad @mnreindia

#CleanEnergy #RenewableEnergy #SolarPower #GreenEnergy #EnergyTransition #SustainableFuture #SolarEnergy

https://t.co/ByfsmY29tE

[Narendra Modi @narendramodi]

I am eager to be among @BJP4Bengal Karyakartas at a rally in Kolkata. With each passing day, public anger against the TMC is increasing. West Bengal is eagerly looking towards the BJP with hope because of our development agenda.

[Harshit Toshniwal @Harshitt93]

Interesting perspective of how things can be!

Summarising-

2025-30 - Phase when AI reduces 70-80% of today’s executive workload

2030-2040 - Era of abundance, as person will have a lot of time at disposal, to work on things they want to than ones they are required to today.

[Harsh Goenka @hvgoenka]

AI is very rapidly changing things- Vinod Khosla

[Harshit Toshniwal @Harshitt93]

‘With respect to America, enemies need to be careful and friends need to be even more careful’

Heard someone saying this, and felt so relevant.

It actually shows how cunning the American mindset is! Don’t want to generalise a nation, but that’s how they have operated!

[Harshit Toshniwal @Harshitt93]

@SudarshanEMA Fielding and lower order batting costed us, hopefully we recover back strong.

[Ministry of Defence, Government of India @SpokespersonMoD]

In these sensitive times, a lot of misinformation and fake news is being spread on #WhatsApp. Be cautious and follow our WhatsApp Channel for all authentic information related to Ministry of Defence.

Tap on the link given below and follow now!

https://t.co/4zu1peMGPj

[Harshit Toshniwal @Harshitt93]

Very crisp and simple explanation to Trump and Tariff issues.

Pls listen till the end as it talks on how should investors think on possible outcome of this.

@poddarajeev2000 thanks.

[KNOWLEDGE CAPSULES by Rajeev Poddar @poddarajeev2000]

https://t.co/XWy7NLSnCC

#HandsOff2025 #tariffs #TariffWar #TrumpTariffs #modi #StockMarketIndia

[Harshit Toshniwal @Harshitt93]

Crisp and easy to understand read on how #DeepSeek is able to compete with #Chatgpt and why all the hype around it is relevant.

[Prachi Somani @prachisomani21]

Over the past few days a lot has been said and written about #DeepSeek and how it has impacted #Nvidia and other US big tech stocks! DeepSeek's clever re-engineering of training of LLMs is poised to transform how the world leverages AI. A small note encapsulating all this!

[Prachi Somani @prachisomani21]

Over the past few days a lot has been said and written about #DeepSeek and how it has impacted #Nvidia and other US big tech stocks! DeepSeek's clever re-engineering of training of LLMs is poised to transform how the world leverages AI. A small note encapsulating all this!

[Prachi Somani @prachisomani21]

A summary of what Trump's second term could mean for India!

[Akshay Jogani @kshayjogani]

I'm excited to share our Q2FY25 investor update.
In this letter, we delve into the current state of market where luck can often be mistaken for skill. This environment reinforces the need to remain disciplined in identifying fundamentally strong businesses.

We also discuss one such business in detail. Do let us know your thoughts!

Disclaimer: Invested; Nothing we write here is investment advice!!

[Harshit Toshniwal @Harshitt93]

@ChanderBhatia01 @varinder_bansal Hi Sir, GS Research and GS Asset Management are two different entities. Just like ICICI Securities & IPRU AMC. So its not that GS AMC is giving any public target prices, its by GS Research - which is completely okay.

[Akshay Jogani @kshayjogani]

Drawing parallels b/w an ALM-mismatched office space lessee, where asset price appreciation actually inflates your cost structure, & branded asset owners, where rising prices directly boost earnings.

All this, just to slap on a multiple and justify a price. Clever.

[Akshay Jogani @kshayjogani]

I'm excited to share our inaugural investor letter since launching our strategy to external investors last month.

We write about the importance of 'Good Behaviour' in investing - an idea that is central to us.

Please do retweet so we can reach more people.

Back to the letter>