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🇮🇷 Israel will restart the Iran war before October. That seems to be the consensus Tehran has reached, and the logic runs through Lebanon. Under the U.S.-Iran MoU, Israel was supposed to stop fighting everywhere and pull out. Then it signed a separate deal with the Lebanese government that quietly undid that, tying any Israeli withdrawal to Hezbollah disarming first. Hezbollah has zero interest in disarming, and no Lebanese government can make it. So Israeli troops basically just stay parked in southern Lebanon, about a fifth of the country, for as long as they like. Analysts think that's the entire point. One called the deal "born dead." Others say it dumps everything on Lebanon while handing Israel a clean excuse to stick around. Israel has already carved out a buffer zone eight to 10km deep, then chained any pullout to a condition that's never going to happen. That's the piece Netanyahu was missing back in February. With his troops dug in up north, he can go after Iran again without Hezbollah breathing down his neck. And he's got every reason to. The MoU has bled him politically, his October reelection odds are the worst they've looked in months, and if he loses he probably loses his immunity too, which means a corruption trial. Restarting the war blows up the MoU, which might be the whole idea. He's barely pretending otherwise. Netanyahu said this week that Israel will hit Iran again "if needed," and that Tehran "will not have nuclear weapons." The only thing Tehran can't figure out is what Washington does. Analysts say the leverage has actually swung toward Iran, since it can now hurt the U.S. directly by shutting the Strait of Hormuz down. So the question was never how Trump reacts. It's whether he stops Netanyahu from deciding this for him. Sources: Reuters, Al Jazeera, Anadolu Agency / Writer: Julie