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Should there be an extra Bank Holiday if England win the World Cup? My short answer: no, the social benefits are often exaggerated, and the economic costs would be too large, but we will probably get one anyway. Slightly longer answer… An extra Bank Holiday would obviously be popular and few politicians would be able to resist. Keir Starmer has already indicated that he would call one for Friday 24th, allowing businesses just a few days to prepare. This could coincide with a trophy parade in London. Andy Burnham would surely jump at the chance to start his honeymoon period this way too. The main argument in favour is that a Bank Holiday would be a great opportunity for a national celebration and to bring communities together. But most people will be happy anyway and most of the benefits will therefore follow if England win, even without an extra holiday, and the parade could still take place on the Sunday instead. Arsenal fans did not need a Bank Holiday to enjoy a special day (#COYG!). The costs cannot be dismissed lightly either. The government impact assessment for the Queen's Platinum Jubilee Bank Holiday in 2022 put the net cost to the economy at £2.4 billion. Some other estimates are lower, but still significant. Both the benefits and the costs will also be unevenly spread. Not everyone will be able to take the time off, while some smaller businesses will be disproportionately hit. By now some readers might be screaming - “typical bloody economist! knows the price of everything and the value of nothing…” But if a single Bank Holiday cost the economy £24 billion, rather than £2.4 billion, would anyone argue that it would be worth it? In the real world, economists often have to put a monetary value on social costs and benefits, for example when assessing the cost effectiveness of a new treatment on the NHS, or the cost of preventing a fatality on the roads or railways. One approach is based on willingness to pay. Just using some illustrative numbers, suppose 24 million households would be impacted by a Bank Holiday with a net economic cost of £2.4 billion. Would each household be willing to pay an average of £100 to cover the bill? I’m not convinced... Unfortunately, when pollsters ask voters whether they would support something that sounds appealing they rarely spell out the downsides. And as we know, very few politicians are brave enough to make unpopular choices, even when these would be in the national interest. In the meantime, though, come on England!! ⚽️➡️🏠🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿