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FOMC Rains on Our Parade as #Gold and #Silver Come Under Pressure Again While Oil Moves Lower
I just finished watching the New York Knicks championship parade. Congratulations to all Knicks fans, 53 years is a long time to wait, and as a New Yorker, it was great to see New York finally celebrate another title.
Unfortunately, the mood in the precious metals market is a bit different today.
Despite the recent decline in oil prices and expectations from some market participants that the Federal Reserve might begin moving toward easier monetary policy, yesterday's FOMC meeting delivered a more hawkish message than many expected.
Chair Warsh reinforced the "higher-for-longer" interest rate narrative, and reports suggest that nine Fed officials now see at least one potential rate hike before year-end. That came as a surprise to a market that had largely been focused on the possibility of future rate cuts.
The result has been renewed pressure on gold and silver, as higher interest rate expectations support the U.S. dollar and increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as precious metals.
I do not believe the longer-term fundamentals have changed.
In fact, many of the key drivers that fueled the rally remain firmly in place:
• Central bank buying remains exceptionally strong. The newly released World Gold Council Central Bank Survey showed a record 45% of central banks plan to increase their gold reserves over the next year.
• Global geopolitical and economic uncertainty remains elevated. From ongoing conflicts and geopolitical tensions to concerns about debt levels, fiscal deficits, and reserve diversification, the reasons investors and central banks own gold have not disappeared.
• Silver continues to face a structural supply-demand deficit. Strong industrial demand from solar, electrification, AI infrastructure, and other technology sectors continues to outpace mine supply.
• Investor positioning has been significantly reduced. Much of the speculative excess has been washed out of the market, leaving positioning considerably healthier than it was earlier this year.
The market is now being forced to digest the possibility that the Fed may not be done tightening. That adjustment process could create additional volatility in the near term.
While today's price action is disappointing for precious metals bulls, I view this as more of a macro-driven repricing event than a fundamental change in the long-term outlook for gold and silver.
We will likely need some time to absorb the Fed's message before the market can refocus on the longer-term fundamentals. For now, patience remains the key word.
For daily institutional precious metals data, analytics, and research, visit https://t.co/8EkSatc4Gb.
Views are my own and provided for informational and educational purposes only. This is not investment advice.
#Gold #Silver h#FOMC #FederalReserve #CentralBanks #Commodities #PreciousMetals #Investing
#Gold is acting accordingly, in response to a structural #inflation cycle. Regardless of the Fed's next move, the underlying story continues: western spending / debt monetization. Gold is still a long term strategic asset, & Central Banks are still stacking. $AEM $WPG.V $GLD
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