Top Tweets for #MDfs
Framing $NQ_F and $ES_F on AVWAPs
As discussed in #MDFS yesterday - MAGs + SMH + QQQ were pretty much peak call IVs (and ATM IVs) - just a data point to track for how market is positioned
07-23 Daily Summary
Earnings season fun has begun
Market Data from @ConvexValue
-Volatility expectations (Term structure) have fallen off; yellow = today, red = yesterday
-Cumulative gamma flip at 7440
-Overnight Straddle is 43 giving us a range of [7457,7541]
-Morning straddle is 41; using spot 7455, gives us a range of [7404, 7496]
-Weekly straddle is 117 range is [7340, 7575]
-Overnight Volumes are 20% highers in calls and higher than normal; highest nodes are 7500C and 7450 P
Net Exposure (SPX) from @OptionsDepth
-Pivot is 7470
-Under pivot is 7455, 7435, 7400, 7375
-Over Pivot is 7490, 7510, 7525, 7535
Thoughts
-7407 would be a an area to knife catch if offered today, First stop is 7437-7443 if we remain under 7467
![Yam_Trades's tweet photo. 07-23 Daily Summary
Earnings season fun has begun
Market Data from @ConvexValue
-Volatility expectations (Term structure) have fallen off; yellow = today, red = yesterday
-Cumulative gamma flip at 7440
-Overnight Straddle is 43 giving us a range of [7457,7541]
-Morning straddle is 41; using spot 7455, gives us a range of [7404, 7496]
-Weekly straddle is 117 range is [7340, 7575]
-Overnight Volumes are 20% highers in calls and higher than normal; highest nodes are 7500C and 7450 P
Net Exposure (SPX) from @OptionsDepth
-Pivot is 7470
-Under pivot is 7455, 7435, 7400, 7375
-Over Pivot is 7490, 7510, 7525, 7535
Thoughts
-7407 would be a an area to knife catch if offered today, First stop is 7437-7443 if we remain under 7467](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HN6QhigakAAd_4G.jpg)
![Yam_Trades's tweet photo. 07-23 Daily Summary
Earnings season fun has begun
Market Data from @ConvexValue
-Volatility expectations (Term structure) have fallen off; yellow = today, red = yesterday
-Cumulative gamma flip at 7440
-Overnight Straddle is 43 giving us a range of [7457,7541]
-Morning straddle is 41; using spot 7455, gives us a range of [7404, 7496]
-Weekly straddle is 117 range is [7340, 7575]
-Overnight Volumes are 20% highers in calls and higher than normal; highest nodes are 7500C and 7450 P
Net Exposure (SPX) from @OptionsDepth
-Pivot is 7470
-Under pivot is 7455, 7435, 7400, 7375
-Over Pivot is 7490, 7510, 7525, 7535
Thoughts
-7407 would be a an area to knife catch if offered today, First stop is 7437-7443 if we remain under 7467](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HN6QgJ-a8AAJ0gT.jpg)
$SPY $QQQ $SPX
Week ahead is out: https://t.co/ReQGJHkJqm
If the week ahead or daily posts are useful in any way, likes/retweets are encouraged.
Have a good weekend!
#MDFS on Wednesday with @tony_mansour to cover Realized Vol.
@tony_mansour Hope you and @Yam_Trades are doing great! Miss the #PMFS and #MDFS but thank you for taking the time to post your levels. They have been extremely helpful!
#MDFS starting now
Join @tony_mansour and @iV_trader and myself as we discuss the markets
Bring your questions
https://t.co/77ZpYs0mIi
05-26 Daily Summary
Lots of headlines this weekend - fact is SPX gapped up and held the opening range overnight
#MDFS at 1245: https://t.co/CW4x5q1XXg
Last one for a bit
Market Data from @ConvexValue
-Volatility expectations (Term structure) back at the lows; yellow = today, red = yesterday
-GX Surface from yesterday shows a more balanced market with gamma peaks up at 7620, gamma flip near 7275 (below 21D)
-Overnight straddle is ~58 points giving us an ON straddle range of [7415, 7532]
-We've generally been at the ON high straddle for much of Globex
-Morning straddle is 32 and using spot 7525 gives us a range of [7498,7557]
-Weekly Straddle ~100 pts gives us [7372, 7574]
-Overnight Volumes are above average - slightly more calls; 7550 calls and 7500 puts are highest volume nodes overnight.
Net Exposure (SPX) from @OptionsDepth
-Pivot is 7525
-Targets above are 7550, 7580, 7600, 7620
-Targets below are 7510, 7500, 7480, 7465 (Fri Close), 7445, 7425
VIX
-The odd VIX positioning remains for tomorrow's VIXEX
Thoughts
-Don't fight the move higher - start of summer; negative headlines about attacks and market just went up .... call it manipulation or whatever you want.
![Yam_Trades's tweet photo. 05-26 Daily Summary
Lots of headlines this weekend - fact is SPX gapped up and held the opening range overnight
#MDFS at 1245: https://t.co/CW4x5q1XXg
Last one for a bit
Market Data from @ConvexValue
-Volatility expectations (Term structure) back at the lows; yellow = today, red = yesterday
-GX Surface from yesterday shows a more balanced market with gamma peaks up at 7620, gamma flip near 7275 (below 21D)
-Overnight straddle is ~58 points giving us an ON straddle range of [7415, 7532]
-We've generally been at the ON high straddle for much of Globex
-Morning straddle is 32 and using spot 7525 gives us a range of [7498,7557]
-Weekly Straddle ~100 pts gives us [7372, 7574]
-Overnight Volumes are above average - slightly more calls; 7550 calls and 7500 puts are highest volume nodes overnight.
Net Exposure (SPX) from @OptionsDepth
-Pivot is 7525
-Targets above are 7550, 7580, 7600, 7620
-Targets below are 7510, 7500, 7480, 7465 (Fri Close), 7445, 7425
VIX
-The odd VIX positioning remains for tomorrow's VIXEX
Thoughts
-Don't fight the move higher - start of summer; negative headlines about attacks and market just went up .... call it manipulation or whatever you want.](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HJPlq-zaEAAkjKX.jpg)
![Yam_Trades's tweet photo. 05-26 Daily Summary
Lots of headlines this weekend - fact is SPX gapped up and held the opening range overnight
#MDFS at 1245: https://t.co/CW4x5q1XXg
Last one for a bit
Market Data from @ConvexValue
-Volatility expectations (Term structure) back at the lows; yellow = today, red = yesterday
-GX Surface from yesterday shows a more balanced market with gamma peaks up at 7620, gamma flip near 7275 (below 21D)
-Overnight straddle is ~58 points giving us an ON straddle range of [7415, 7532]
-We've generally been at the ON high straddle for much of Globex
-Morning straddle is 32 and using spot 7525 gives us a range of [7498,7557]
-Weekly Straddle ~100 pts gives us [7372, 7574]
-Overnight Volumes are above average - slightly more calls; 7550 calls and 7500 puts are highest volume nodes overnight.
Net Exposure (SPX) from @OptionsDepth
-Pivot is 7525
-Targets above are 7550, 7580, 7600, 7620
-Targets below are 7510, 7500, 7480, 7465 (Fri Close), 7445, 7425
VIX
-The odd VIX positioning remains for tomorrow's VIXEX
Thoughts
-Don't fight the move higher - start of summer; negative headlines about attacks and market just went up .... call it manipulation or whatever you want.](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HJPlbs6awAALP8K.jpg)
$SPY $QQQ SPX
Week ahead is out: https://t.co/TNGfFea4ks
Market data from @ConvexValue
Net positioning from @OptionsDepth
If the weekly posts, daily commentary, or flow shows are of any use, please like/repost.
#MDFS on Tuesday at 1245 EST with @tony_mansour
and @iV_trader.
It's our last one for a while - we'll be back later in the summer!
We got this from the Whitehouse after market close on Friday.
The post-OPEX wobble was interesting (see this from last week)
#MDFS -$SPY SPX
Join @iV_trader and @tony_mansour and myself Tuesday 1245 EST
Bring your questions - this is my last one for a few weeks.
https://t.co/77ZpYs0mIi
SPX $SPY
$PMFS Tomorrow 915EST.
https://t.co/mnjLJbnST6
Join @tony_mansour , @iV_trader , and myself on views into the day.
Congrats to anyone who grabbed the upside we discussed on #MDFS before the rip higher
https://t.co/I0Y6qXczSl
05-21 Daily Summary
Interested to see how the market reacts to the 05/14 open
#MDFS at 1245: https://t.co/105e49xoLW
Market Data from @ConvexValue
-Volatility expectations (Term structure) at the highs in near terms and then collapsed; yellow = today, red = yesterday
-GX Surface from yesterday shows a more balanced market with gamma peaks up at 7550, gamma flip near 7275 (near 21D)
-Overnight straddle is ~58 points giving us an ON straddle range of [7274, 7490]
-Morning straddle is 49 and using spot 7410 gives us a range of [7361,7459]
-Weekly Straddle remains [7283, 7533]
-Overnight Volumes are above average - slightly more calls; 7500 calls and 7400 puts are highest volume nodes overnight.
Net Exposure from @OptionsDepth
SPX
-Pivot is 7425
-Targets above are 7440, 7450 (7455 gap), 7470, 7490, 7500
-Targets below are 7410, 7400, 7375, 7365, 7350, 7330, 7300
VIX
-Next weekly expiration is smaller size; positioning is primarily MM short calls; 20 unlocks more upside
Thoughts
-Globex fall into recovery into fall... let's see what the market does around key levels
-7367 interests me for a dip buy
![Yam_Trades's tweet photo. 05-21 Daily Summary
Interested to see how the market reacts to the 05/14 open
#MDFS at 1245: https://t.co/105e49xoLW
Market Data from @ConvexValue
-Volatility expectations (Term structure) at the highs in near terms and then collapsed; yellow = today, red = yesterday
-GX Surface from yesterday shows a more balanced market with gamma peaks up at 7550, gamma flip near 7275 (near 21D)
-Overnight straddle is ~58 points giving us an ON straddle range of [7274, 7490]
-Morning straddle is 49 and using spot 7410 gives us a range of [7361,7459]
-Weekly Straddle remains [7283, 7533]
-Overnight Volumes are above average - slightly more calls; 7500 calls and 7400 puts are highest volume nodes overnight.
Net Exposure from @OptionsDepth
SPX
-Pivot is 7425
-Targets above are 7440, 7450 (7455 gap), 7470, 7490, 7500
-Targets below are 7410, 7400, 7375, 7365, 7350, 7330, 7300
VIX
-Next weekly expiration is smaller size; positioning is primarily MM short calls; 20 unlocks more upside
Thoughts
-Globex fall into recovery into fall... let's see what the market does around key levels
-7367 interests me for a dip buy](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HI12t7daIAIsYjc.jpg)
![Yam_Trades's tweet photo. 05-21 Daily Summary
Interested to see how the market reacts to the 05/14 open
#MDFS at 1245: https://t.co/105e49xoLW
Market Data from @ConvexValue
-Volatility expectations (Term structure) at the highs in near terms and then collapsed; yellow = today, red = yesterday
-GX Surface from yesterday shows a more balanced market with gamma peaks up at 7550, gamma flip near 7275 (near 21D)
-Overnight straddle is ~58 points giving us an ON straddle range of [7274, 7490]
-Morning straddle is 49 and using spot 7410 gives us a range of [7361,7459]
-Weekly Straddle remains [7283, 7533]
-Overnight Volumes are above average - slightly more calls; 7500 calls and 7400 puts are highest volume nodes overnight.
Net Exposure from @OptionsDepth
SPX
-Pivot is 7425
-Targets above are 7440, 7450 (7455 gap), 7470, 7490, 7500
-Targets below are 7410, 7400, 7375, 7365, 7350, 7330, 7300
VIX
-Next weekly expiration is smaller size; positioning is primarily MM short calls; 20 unlocks more upside
Thoughts
-Globex fall into recovery into fall... let's see what the market does around key levels
-7367 interests me for a dip buy](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HI12s5-bcAAW2UY.jpg)
SPX
#MDFS
Tomorrow is Thursday - join @tony_mansour, @iV_trader and myself at 1245 EST
Bring your questions
https://t.co/3hGcDTGQr7
https://t.co/Saxuu5vwfe
#MDFS in under an hour
How I saw the day - Not shown is a flush/recovery of yesterday's lows which was a rip higher.
Per @OptionsDepth, lots of upside calls bought and sold puts from 7330-7350.
I can't rule out a new low but think if a low was offered around let's see 7303, that would be a buy into $NVDA earnings.
05-19 Daily Summary
Scenario #1 I outlined in the week ahead - flush/recovery of the 10 SMA and MTD AVWAP @ 7380; Still feel volatility isn't done
#MDFS at 1245 EST: https://t.co/L3CCu58Xkl
Market Data from @ConvexValue
-Volatility expectations (Term structure) back towards the highs; yellow = today, red = yesterday; A bit of short term concern around NVDA earnings.
-GX Surface from yesterday shows a more balanced market with gamma peaks up at 7530, gamma flip in mid 7200s (near 21D)
-Overnight straddle is 45 points giving us an ON straddle range of [7358, 7448]
-Morning straddle is 42 and using spot 7380 gives us a range of [7338,7422]
-Weekly Straddle remains [7283, 7533]
-Monthly [June] Opex Straddle is [7134, 7683]
-Overnight Volumes are above average - slightly more calls; 7450 calls and 7325 puts are highest volume nodes overnight.
Net Exposure (SPX and VIX) from @OptionsDepth
-Pivot is 7400
-Targets above are 7415, 7430, 7450, 7460 (Gap)
-Targets below are 7385, 7365, 7350, 7330, 7310, 7300
Net Exposure (VIX)
-Vixperation today - settling around 18 at the large positive gamma node; Positioning shifts (for next week) to more dealer short VIX (Weeklies are smaller than the monthly by a long shot)
Thoughts
-Choppy PA on the index with sudden moves off headlines; This continues into Wednesday. Fade the extremes today from 7420 and 7330
![Yam_Trades's tweet photo. 05-19 Daily Summary
Scenario #1 I outlined in the week ahead - flush/recovery of the 10 SMA and MTD AVWAP @ 7380; Still feel volatility isn't done
#MDFS at 1245 EST: https://t.co/L3CCu58Xkl
Market Data from @ConvexValue
-Volatility expectations (Term structure) back towards the highs; yellow = today, red = yesterday; A bit of short term concern around NVDA earnings.
-GX Surface from yesterday shows a more balanced market with gamma peaks up at 7530, gamma flip in mid 7200s (near 21D)
-Overnight straddle is 45 points giving us an ON straddle range of [7358, 7448]
-Morning straddle is 42 and using spot 7380 gives us a range of [7338,7422]
-Weekly Straddle remains [7283, 7533]
-Monthly [June] Opex Straddle is [7134, 7683]
-Overnight Volumes are above average - slightly more calls; 7450 calls and 7325 puts are highest volume nodes overnight.
Net Exposure (SPX and VIX) from @OptionsDepth
-Pivot is 7400
-Targets above are 7415, 7430, 7450, 7460 (Gap)
-Targets below are 7385, 7365, 7350, 7330, 7310, 7300
Net Exposure (VIX)
-Vixperation today - settling around 18 at the large positive gamma node; Positioning shifts (for next week) to more dealer short VIX (Weeklies are smaller than the monthly by a long shot)
Thoughts
-Choppy PA on the index with sudden moves off headlines; This continues into Wednesday. Fade the extremes today from 7420 and 7330](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HIrsw-EaYAANbjN.jpg)
![Yam_Trades's tweet photo. 05-19 Daily Summary
Scenario #1 I outlined in the week ahead - flush/recovery of the 10 SMA and MTD AVWAP @ 7380; Still feel volatility isn't done
#MDFS at 1245 EST: https://t.co/L3CCu58Xkl
Market Data from @ConvexValue
-Volatility expectations (Term structure) back towards the highs; yellow = today, red = yesterday; A bit of short term concern around NVDA earnings.
-GX Surface from yesterday shows a more balanced market with gamma peaks up at 7530, gamma flip in mid 7200s (near 21D)
-Overnight straddle is 45 points giving us an ON straddle range of [7358, 7448]
-Morning straddle is 42 and using spot 7380 gives us a range of [7338,7422]
-Weekly Straddle remains [7283, 7533]
-Monthly [June] Opex Straddle is [7134, 7683]
-Overnight Volumes are above average - slightly more calls; 7450 calls and 7325 puts are highest volume nodes overnight.
Net Exposure (SPX and VIX) from @OptionsDepth
-Pivot is 7400
-Targets above are 7415, 7430, 7450, 7460 (Gap)
-Targets below are 7385, 7365, 7350, 7330, 7310, 7300
Net Exposure (VIX)
-Vixperation today - settling around 18 at the large positive gamma node; Positioning shifts (for next week) to more dealer short VIX (Weeklies are smaller than the monthly by a long shot)
Thoughts
-Choppy PA on the index with sudden moves off headlines; This continues into Wednesday. Fade the extremes today from 7420 and 7330](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HIrsjsOaoAA24bv.jpg)
05-19 Daily Summary
Scenario #1 I outlined in the week ahead - flush/recovery of the 10 SMA and MTD AVWAP @ 7380; Still feel volatility isn't done
#MDFS at 1245 EST: https://t.co/L3CCu58Xkl
Market Data from @ConvexValue
-Volatility expectations (Term structure) back towards the highs; yellow = today, red = yesterday; A bit of short term concern around NVDA earnings.
-GX Surface from yesterday shows a more balanced market with gamma peaks up at 7530, gamma flip in mid 7200s (near 21D)
-Overnight straddle is 45 points giving us an ON straddle range of [7358, 7448]
-Morning straddle is 42 and using spot 7380 gives us a range of [7338,7422]
-Weekly Straddle remains [7283, 7533]
-Monthly [June] Opex Straddle is [7134, 7683]
-Overnight Volumes are above average - slightly more calls; 7450 calls and 7325 puts are highest volume nodes overnight.
Net Exposure (SPX and VIX) from @OptionsDepth
-Pivot is 7400
-Targets above are 7415, 7430, 7450, 7460 (Gap)
-Targets below are 7385, 7365, 7350, 7330, 7310, 7300
Net Exposure (VIX)
-Vixperation today - settling around 18 at the large positive gamma node; Positioning shifts (for next week) to more dealer short VIX (Weeklies are smaller than the monthly by a long shot)
Thoughts
-Choppy PA on the index with sudden moves off headlines; This continues into Wednesday. Fade the extremes today from 7420 and 7330
Tomorrow - #MDFS at 1245 EST
Join @tony_mansour, @iV_trader, and myself
Bring your questions
https://t.co/TqNNTVFXV0
Week ahead is out: https://t.co/sf8sdcpxZ4
Market data from @ConvexValue
Net positioning from @OptionsDepth
If the weekly posts, daily commentary, or flow shows are of any use, please like/repost.
Flow shows with @tony_mansour and @iV_trader
#PMFS on M/W/F at 915am #MDFS on T/Th at 1245pm
Areas weakness might drive us to - we're in a full bull market into the summer.
Have a good weekend and be back Monday morning with a note and #PMFS.
solana:J3NKxxXZcnNiMjKw9hYb2K4LUxgwB6t1FtPtQVsv3KFr
It's Thursday - that means it's another #MDFS
1245 EST
https://t.co/r9gvblWrcK
Join @tony_mansour and @iV_trader - bring your questions.
solana:J3NKxxXZcnNiMjKw9hYb2K4LUxgwB6t1FtPtQVsv3KFr
#MDFS with @tony_mansour
Thanks to all who turned in - did not have flat close lives matter (ok 12 off) in the cards today.
As I've said for nearly two weeks - I expected today to be the start of volatility and it would be very hard to play to the downside. Just see today.... It's on bears to take it down.
Preview of Tomorrow courtesy @OptionsDepth
Only way we go lower is if Vol gets perky .... Otherwise buy the dip remains!
https://t.co/uh73viXACN
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