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The critical materials race is about much more than digging things out of the ground. It is about power, resilience, capital, and who ultimately captures the value. There is no shortage of capital moving into these supply chains. What has been missing is a framework for where along them value is captured. So I wrote one. The New Critical Minerals Paradigm is thirteen pillars across three acts: the forces that ended the old order, the constraints on building a new one, and the question of who captures the returns. The critical materials discussion too often focuses on narratives around absurd demand forecasts, endless supply deficits, and strategic importance without spending enough time on the harder questions of execution and economics. Strategic necessity and attractive investment returns are not the same thing. These essays are designed to provide a framework for thinking through this distinction. I don’t predict a single outcome but try to understand the forces that will shape several possible futures. I’m sharing the series for anyone interested in critical minerals, industrial policy, geopolitics, energy, manufacturing, or the intersection of strategic competition and investment returns. I hope it provides a useful framework for thinking about the opportunities and the challenges as these supply chains develop. I welcome thoughtful disagreement and discussion. https://t.co/jfEvgfiWpF