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🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Ten reflections on Scottish election: 1. For the SNP to win so decisively after nearly two decades in government is remarkable. Such staying power has to be respected, regardless of where you stand politically. John Swinney has pulled off a remarkable turnaround after being dealt an awful hand, helped a lot by Keir Starmer’s unprecedented unpopularity. 2. The result speaks to an apparent paradox in Scottish politics. On the one hand, people have voted in large numbers for the status quo, even though by all accounts Scots are not very happy. Of course, many SNP voters don’t see it that way - they see it as a vehicle for radical change via independence. It’s clear the constitutional divide still dominates voting patterns, even if it wasn’t as prominent in this campaign as it has been. 3. Despite the victory, the SNP’s vote is down quite substantially. Ironically, the victory was greatly helped by Reform further splitting the unionist vote. As long as the unionist vote is split four ways, while the independence vote is split two ways, the arithmetic will always favour the pro-indy side. 4. That being said, there were quite a few seats where the Tory and Reform vote together would beat the SNP. This should concern Swinney, as it leaves them exposed to a right-wing pact / alliance in future. It also puts to bed the myth that right-wing politics has no foothold in Scotland. It absolutely does, and it’s growing. The presence of Reform will have a huge impact on the debate in Parliament, on everything from climate and the economy to welfare and culture wars. 5. Labour and the Tories both received their worst results ever in a Holyrood election. The two party system fragmented in Scotland a long time ago, but this election feels like its final funeral. Both have some existential soul searching to do. This should include looking at separating from their UK parents, and becoming fully independent Scottish parties. It’s impossible to win Scotland and England on the same policy platform and messaging. 6. The Scottish Greens had a spectacular result, winning their first constituency seats and finishing just two seats short of the opposition. Across the UK, it’s clear the Greens are breaking free of their glass ceiling and becoming a mainstream, popular party. Whether they can go further in Scotland will depend on their ability to grow their appeal beyond their new, larger base. 7. The key question is how the SNP plan to govern. I doubt we’ll see another formal pact with the Greens, as both parties still bear the scars of last time. I suspect Swinney will lead a minority government, relying on the Greens on some issues, and others (likely Lib Dems) on others. Given nearly half the MSPs elected are brand new to Holyrood, hopefully we’ll see an influx of new energy and ideas, which is badly needed. 8. The influence of the Scottish media has hugely diminished. Much of the newspaper landscape (minus the National) were hostile towards the SNP, and yet they’ve delivered a thumping victory after nearly two decades in government. The days of newspapers deciding elections are well and truly over. 9. Despite the pro-indy majority, nobody expects Keir Starmer to grant another referendum, including the SNP. And so the constitutional debate looks set for five more years of stalemate. 10. If Reform win the next UK election, the question won’t be whether they grant another referendum — it will be whether the Scottish Parliament can survive attempts to abolish or curtail it. Overall, we’re in for an interesting Parliament…