#TASSI - Twitter Hashtag

1 day ago

#Dollaro misto ed #EurUsd stabile a 1,14. #Yen ancora debole; il #dollaro neozelandese corre dopo il rialzo dei #tassi. Bene #corona norvegese e real mentre lo #zloty arretra per timori di tagli. https://t.co/65Fqn3MqbC #MpsNews #MarketNews #WeeklyForex

Banca_MPS's tweet photo. #Dollaro misto ed #EurUsd stabile a 1,14. #Yen ancora debole; il #dollaro neozelandese corre dopo il rialzo dei #tassi. Bene #corona norvegese e real mentre lo #zloty arretra per timori di tagli. https://t.co/65Fqn3MqbC #MpsNews #MarketNews #WeeklyForex https://t.co/SToxtB26Mi

0

1

0

128

Banca MPS @Banca_MPS

2 days ago

Mercati in risk-off per escalation in #MedioOriente e sell-off #TechAI. Focus su #CPIUSA, Warsh e utili Q2. #Tassi in rialzo, #dollaro forte, #petrolio su; metalli e borse deboli, con forte calo del #Kospi e dell’#Europa. https://t.co/olW0dtlNSO #MpsNews #MarketNews #13Luglio

Banca_MPS's tweet photo. Mercati in risk-off per escalation in #MedioOriente e sell-off #TechAI. Focus su #CPIUSA, Warsh e utili Q2. #Tassi in rialzo, #dollaro forte, #petrolio su; metalli e borse deboli, con forte calo del #Kospi e dell’#Europa. https://t.co/olW0dtlNSO #MpsNews #MarketNews #13Luglio https://t.co/8EHJeCBjgw

0

1

0

140

@rendimentofinanza @rendifinanza

9 days ago

La Fed cambia tono a Sintra: aspettative d'inflazione in calo e mercati che riprezzano i tassi. Cosa significa per BTP, mutui (fisso o variabile?), conti deposito e borse — la guida per il risparmiatore italiano. #Fed #tassi #BTP https://t.co/XHglFGkeoU

0

6

1

0

36

FIRST CISL @FirstCisl

11 days ago

🏦📈 #BancheCentrali alle prese con rischio alta #inflazione e #borse euforiche. #RiccardoColombani a #IlConfronto 👉 Guarda l'intervista di #MonicaSetta al Segretario generale #FirstCisl su #Rai2: 🔗 https://t.co/LHDHFyrZKe #Banche #Fed #Bce #Tassi #Economia @CislNazionale

0

12

3

0

555

S_Galimberti @S_Galimberti

13 days ago

#FED #tassi

EndGame Macro

@onechancefreedm

13 days ago

The 2 Year Yield Is Flashing A Trapped Fed Signal The 2 year Treasury yield fell hard after the June jobs report, dropping from roughly 4.19% to 4.20% before the release toward 4.11% to 4.12% after it. The 10 year moved much less, easing only modestly toward the 4.46% area. That gap matters. The 2 year is the market’s policy nerve ending. When it drops 7 to 8 bps in minutes after a payroll miss, traders are pulling Fed hike premium out of the curve. The market is saying the Fed may still want to sound tough on inflation, but the labor market is starting to limit how much tightening credibility they have left. The Labor Data Hit The Front End The report was weak beneath the headline. Payrolls rose only 57,000. April and May were revised down by 74,000. Labor force participation fell to 61.5%. Household employment dropped. Leisure and hospitality lost 61,000 jobs. The unemployment rate falling to 4.2% looks fine on the surface, but it was helped by people leaving the labor force. That is not clean labor strength but more so denominator relief. So the 2 year move is not just less hike pricing. It is the market starting to sniff out that the next macro narrative may shift from sticky inflation to weaker labor, weaker demand, and eventually a deflationary impulse. The 10 Year Is Where The Tension Lives The 10 year barely followed the 2 year lower. That does not mean the market thinks inflation wins forever. It means the long end is trapped between two forces. One force is recession and deflation risk pulling yields lower. The other is term premium, Treasury supply, deficits, foreign demand uncertainty, and leftover inflation risk keeping long yields from falling cleanly. That is why the 10 year can stay stubbornly high even while the market increasingly believes the Fed may eventually have to cut. The front end is saying the Fed is losing the ability to hike. The long end is saying the U.S. still has to pay up for long term funding. This Is A Bull Steepener, Not A Healthy Signal The curve steepened because the 2 year fell more than the 10 year. The 10y to 2y spread is now around 30 to 35 bps positive. That is a bull steepener, but not automatically bullish. Late cycle bull steepeners often appear when markets start pricing that the Fed will eventually be forced off a restrictive stance because the economy is weakening. This happened in different forms around 2007 and 2019. The curve steepened not because the economy was accelerating, but because the front end started sensing policy relief while the real economy lost momentum. The Cross Asset Message Is Not Clean Risk On Stocks can rally because lower front end yields reduce immediate rate pressure. The dollar can fall because the Fed’s hawkish path looks less secure. Gold can rise because real rate pressure eases and trust shifts toward hard collateral. But oil falling while gold rises is not a clean growth signal. It says supply panic is fading while demand concerns remain alive. Equities are getting rate relief, but the reason for that relief is weaker labor. • 2 year down means less Fed hike pressure • 10 year sticky means fiscal and inflation risk still matter • Curve steeper means policy constraint is rising • Stocks higher means rate relief, not economic strength • Gold higher means trust is moving toward hard collateral My Take The 2 year is saying the Fed just lost labor market cover. The 10 year is saying the market is not ready to price a clean recessionary disinflation trade yet because the long end still carries fiscal, supply, term premium, and inflation risk baggage. If the 10 year breaks lower with the 2 year, the market is moving from fewer Fed hikes toward recession and deflation risk. If the 2 year falls while the long end stays sticky, the message is worse. It means the Fed is being pulled toward eventual cuts by labor weakness while long term borrowing costs remain elevated. @GeorgeGammon @JeffSnider_EDU

onechancefreedm's tweet photo. The 2 Year Yield Is Flashing A Trapped Fed Signal

The 2 year Treasury yield fell hard after the June jobs report, dropping from roughly 4.19% to 4.20% before the release toward 4.11% to 4.12% after it. The 10 year moved much less, easing only modestly toward the 4.46% area.

That gap matters.

The 2 year is the market’s policy nerve ending. When it drops 7 to 8 bps in minutes after a payroll miss, traders are pulling Fed hike premium out of the curve. The market is saying the Fed may still want to sound tough on inflation, but the labor market is starting to limit how much tightening credibility they have left.

The Labor Data Hit The Front End

The report was weak beneath the headline. Payrolls rose only 57,000. April and May were revised down by 74,000. Labor force participation fell to 61.5%. Household employment dropped. Leisure and hospitality lost 61,000 jobs.

The unemployment rate falling to 4.2% looks fine on the surface, but it was helped by people leaving the labor force. That is not clean labor strength but more so denominator relief.

So the 2 year move is not just less hike pricing. It is the market starting to sniff out that the next macro narrative may shift from sticky inflation to weaker labor, weaker demand, and eventually a deflationary impulse.

The 10 Year Is Where The Tension Lives

The 10 year barely followed the 2 year lower. That does not mean the market thinks inflation wins forever. It means the long end is trapped between two forces.

One force is recession and deflation risk pulling yields lower.

The other is term premium, Treasury supply, deficits, foreign demand uncertainty, and leftover inflation risk keeping long yields from falling cleanly.

That is why the 10 year can stay stubbornly high even while the market increasingly believes the Fed may eventually have to cut. The front end is saying the Fed is losing the ability to hike. The long end is saying the U.S. still has to pay up for long term funding.

This Is A Bull Steepener, Not A Healthy Signal

The curve steepened because the 2 year fell more than the 10 year. The 10y to 2y spread is now around 30 to 35 bps positive.

That is a bull steepener, but not automatically bullish. Late cycle bull steepeners often appear when markets start pricing that the Fed will eventually be forced off a restrictive stance because the economy is weakening.

This happened in different forms around 2007 and 2019. The curve steepened not because the economy was accelerating, but because the front end started sensing policy relief while the real economy lost momentum.

The Cross Asset Message Is Not Clean Risk On

Stocks can rally because lower front end yields reduce immediate rate pressure. The dollar can fall because the Fed’s hawkish path looks less secure. Gold can rise because real rate pressure eases and trust shifts toward hard collateral.

But oil falling while gold rises is not a clean growth signal. It says supply panic is fading while demand concerns remain alive. Equities are getting rate relief, but the reason for that relief is weaker labor.

• 2 year down means less Fed hike pressure

• 10 year sticky means fiscal and inflation risk still matter

• Curve steeper means policy constraint is rising

• Stocks higher means rate relief, not economic strength

• Gold higher means trust is moving toward hard collateral

My Take

The 2 year is saying the Fed just lost labor market cover.

The 10 year is saying the market is not ready to price a clean recessionary disinflation trade yet because the long end still carries fiscal, supply, term premium, and inflation risk baggage.

If the 10 year breaks lower with the 2 year, the market is moving from fewer Fed hikes toward recession and deflation risk. If the 2 year falls while the long end stays sticky, the message is worse. It means the Fed is being pulled toward eventual cuts by labor weakness while long term borrowing costs remain elevated. @GeorgeGammon @JeffSnider_EDU

5

108

17

42

13K

0

554

MilanoFinanza @MilanoFinanza

15 days ago

#Lagarde (Bce): sono sufficienti aggiustamenti misurati dei #tassi, calibrati in base allo shock https://t.co/DU2yMaGLC7

0

4

1

0

1K

FIRST CISL @FirstCisl

18 days ago

📺 Risiko #banche, #risparmio famiglie e aumento #tassi: #RiccardoColombani su #Rai2 Il Segretario generale #FirstCisl ospite di #MonicaSetta a #IlConfronto su: #risikobancario, #desertificazionebancaria, ruolo della #Bce, costo del denaro. 👉 Guarda: https://t.co/NnzxLC40uF

0

11

7

0

426

MilanoFinanza @MilanoFinanza

27 days ago

🇺🇸#Fed mantiene i #tassi invariati al 3,50-3,75%. Ma un rialzo è ancora possibile https://t.co/il7SuGO14h

0

5

1

0

529

@rendimentofinanza @rendifinanza

about 1 month ago

🏦 Banche La svolta dei tassi BCE cambia mutui, conti deposito e BTP. E in Italia le banche scaricano in fretta sui prestiti, lente sui depositi: la remunerazione della liquidita va cercata 👇 https://t.co/5H4pZ7C1Sf #banche #tassi #BCE #risparmio #mutui

0

6

1

0

26

@rendimentofinanza @rendifinanza

about 1 month ago

📊 Fed, riunione del 17 giugno: cosa aspettarsi dai tassi e cosa cambia per mercati, mutui e investimenti 👇 https://t.co/bBXfX3ZJDA #Fed #tassi #mercati #investimenti #economia

0

5

1

0

19

Tv2000.it

@TV2000it

about 1 month ago

#Tg2000 - #Bce rialza i tassi d'interesse. Impatto su #mutui e #prestiti #11giugno #Tv2000 #economia #banca #tassi @tg2000it https://t.co/lLR8va3UWd

0

2

0

107

@rendimentofinanza @rendifinanza

about 1 month ago

🏦 La BCE alza i tassi al 2,25%: primo rialzo dal 2023. Cosa cambia subito per mutui, risparmi e investimenti delle famiglie 👇 https://t.co/o6FgpVXcxu #BCE #tassi #mutui #economia #Lagarde

0

5

1

0

22

Angelo Deiana @AngeloDeianaTW

about 1 month ago

Grazie ad @andrea_pancani, #domani dalle 9..40 sarò a Coffee Break La7 per #parlare di #BCE #tassi #inflazione #italia #petrolio #war #iran #Hormuz #energia #risiko #banche #IA #AI #cybersecurity. Conto su di voi... #Confassociazioni #laretedellereti #IlGrandeGioco #LaSvolta

AngeloDeianaTW's tweet photo. Grazie ad @andrea_pancani, #domani dalle 9..40 sarò a Coffee Break La7 per #parlare di #BCE #tassi #inflazione #italia #petrolio #war #iran #Hormuz #energia #risiko #banche #IA #AI #cybersecurity. Conto su di voi...

#Confassociazioni #laretedellereti #IlGrandeGioco #LaSvolta https://t.co/5pcSHsc2Tx

0

2

1

0

49

luciano ghelfi @lucianoghelfi

about 1 month ago

++ La #Bce alza i #tassi di 25 punti base, al 2.25%. E' l'effetto del taglio delle stime di crescita ++

3

0

1

1K

@rendimentofinanza @rendifinanza

about 1 month ago

📊 Oggi la BCE decide sui tassi: i mercati prezzano il possibile primo rialzo in tre anni. Cosa cambia per mutui, risparmi e investimenti 👇 https://t.co/1LohZEpjCv #BCE #tassi #mutui #economia #investimenti

0

5

1

0

45

IL TEMPO @tempoweb

about 1 month ago

#Bce verso il rialzo dei #tassi: inflazione sopra le attese. “Dato preoccupante”, ma l’#economia rallenta #7giugno #iltempoquotidiano https://t.co/KaZiEznvWv

tempoweb's tweet photo. #Bce verso il rialzo dei #tassi: inflazione sopra le attese. “Dato preoccupante”, ma l’#economia rallenta

#7giugno #iltempoquotidiano

https://t.co/KaZiEznvWv https://t.co/46hEC6s4N7

1

7

1

0

608

Andrea @MCYC1975

about 1 month ago

Siamo ormai al 95% di probabilità che la #BCE alzi i #tassi dello 0,25% questo mese. A inizio anno le probabilità di rialzo erano nulle. Le tensioni mediorientali creano distruzione e morte in loco, ma anche rallentamento e credito più caro in Europa. Grazie #Netanyahu & C0.

0

3

0

144